NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 5 (2020)
If you followed our advice from last week’s column, you advanced in your survivor pools without much of a sweat. Our four selections (even our Bengals play) won by an average of 11 points. Those who got a little bit more creative and looked further down the odds list were the ones that got burned last week. Overall, favorites went 11-4 SU. The four moneyline favorites who lost were the 49ers (-275), Cowboys (-230), Texans (-198), and Cardinals (-174). The 49ers and Cowboys were listed in last week’s “Risky Plays That Will Be Popular” category while the Texans and Cardinals were never considered.
Like always, my selections for this week will be broken down by the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path. Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 5 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
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| TEAM | ODDS |
| Baltimore Ravens | -842 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -671 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -431 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -402 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -400 |
| New Orleans Saints | -360 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -331 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -330 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -295 |
| Houston Texans | -275 |
| New England Patriots | -240 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -236 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -193 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -142 |
| Buffalo Bills/Tennessee Titans | OFF |
Safest Picks
Baltimore Ravens (-842), Kansas City Chiefs (-671), New Orleans Saints (-360)
If you have been saving the better teams in the league for future use, you may want to think about using one of them this week, starting with the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are two-touchdown favorites for the second week in a row. Even in an uninspired effort against Washington, they were up 21 points late before a garbage-time touchdown by the Football Team caused some bets to push. The Ravens are 37-0 SU as a double-digit favorite in the regular season and are the only team in the league to be undefeated in that spot. I love Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, but he is not going into Baltimore and walking out a winner.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick made the Kansas City Chiefs offense look rather pedestrian on Monday night, holding them to 26 points on 323 total yards. This week, the Chiefs look to get back to their offensive fireworks against a Raiders defense that has allowed at least 30 points in three of their four games. The Chiefs beat the Raiders by a combined 68-19 last year, so this one may get ugly fast.
Those that will be stubborn and not use the Ravens or Chiefs this early can find safety in picking the New Orleans Saints. While some were hesitant to back them against the Lions last week given the number of injuries they were dealing with, the Saints responded with a 35-29 win in a game that did not even feel that close. They take on a Chargers team that gave the Buccaneers all they could handle last week. However, going on the road for consecutive weeks and knocking off the Saints in the Superdome is a tall order. I am not sure rookie quarterback Justin Herbert is ready to back up his three-touchdown performance this week, and their offense will miss the skill set of injured running back Austin Ekeler more than people realize.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Dallas Cowboys (-431), Los Angeles Rams (-400), Pittsburgh Steelers (-331), Seattle Seahawks (-330), Arizona Cardinals (-295), Houston Texans (-275)
If you have watched the Dallas Cowboys play defense this year (or not, depending on how you look at it), you should know you are playing with fire by picking them in a survivor pool. Granted, the Giants do not possess the offensive firepower on paper to be able to hang with Dallas. New York ranks 31st in total offense and last with 11.8 PPG. However, until the Cowboys prove they can stop somebody or at least slow down an opponent, I want no part of picking them.
The Los Angeles Rams should not be in danger of losing in Washington this week, but their lackluster performance against the Giants is worrisome. The Rams managed just 17 points and the Giants had a chance to tie the game late, before a red zone interception of Daniel Jones sealed the win. Washington has a much better defense than the Giants, and I do not want to risk taking the Rams in what could be another defensive struggle that is close late.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are essentially coming off a bye this week after last week’s game against the Titans was postponed. However, this is not a typical planned bye week where coaches knew they would have off and planned their schedule accordingly. In addition, the Eagles showed some resolve in springing an upset in San Francisco last week, so it can be easily argued there are much better spots to use the Steelers.
The Seattle Seahawks avoided the “trap game” that was their visit to Miami last week. However, they head home to face a Vikings team that may have found some momentum with their first win over the Texans. While Minnesota has struggled to a 1-3 start this season, they have the offensive firepower that can attack Seattle’s defense and lead them to a big win at any moment.
The Arizona Cardinals did not get the memo that they were supposed to start 5-0 and beat the Lions, Panthers, and Jets after winning their first two games. Something is really wrong with Arizona if they cannot beat a Jets team that looks like the most dysfunctional team in the league at the moment. However, I also want no part of backing a team coming off two straight losses and who has no momentum going at all when there are better options available.
The Houston Texans just fired head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien after an 0-4 start. That could be the smartest thing for the Texans, making the move in-season and trying to create a winning culture now instead of playing out the string. Interim head coach Romeo Crennel does have head coaching experience with two stints as a head coach in the league before. However, there are too many unknown factors in this game to be able to back Houston confidently.
Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool
San Francisco 49ers (-402)
The San Francisco 49ers are an interesting contrarian play this week, namely because they should be motivated by a loss and because their upcoming schedule is absolutely brutal. The 49ers are home to the Rams, at New England, at Seattle, home to Green Bay, at New Orleans, at the Rams, and home to Buffalo in the next seven weeks. While the injuries for the 49ers seem to pile up each week, they should still be able to take care of a Dolphins team making a cross-country visit. There is a chance quarterback both Jimmy Garoppolo and running back Raheem Mostert return this week, but even if they do not the 49ers showed they have no problem taking care of some of the league’s worst teams in the Jets and Giants without them.
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