NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 7 (2019)
Week 6 in the NFL was the worst week for favorites to date. While the Patriots and Ravens held serve as big favorites, many survivor pool contestants likely did not have these teams at their disposal. Outside of those two, the next three biggest favorites all lost SU. Favorites in total went 7-7 SU for the week. Among the losers were the Dallas Cowboys (-400), Los Angeles Chargers (-290), Kansas City Chiefs (-235), Los Angeles Rams (-184), Atlanta Falcons (-126), Jacksonville Jaguars (-116) and Cleveland Browns (-112).
Even though underdogs ruled last week, the Dallas Cowboys were the only “safest pick†from last week’s column to lose. The Cowboys were tipped before the news broke of Sam Darnold being cleared to play. Hopefully, you either already used the Cowboys, or selected another team given this news. Even last week’s “contrarian play†of the Broncos was a comfortable winner. If you are still alive in your survivor pools entering Week 7, great job and good luck moving forward!
Like always, my selections for this week will be broken down by the following categories: Safest Picks, Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular, and Contrarian Plays to Beat a Large Pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path, or have already used the teams I will suggest.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 7 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
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| TEAM | ODDS |
| Buffalo Bills | -1100 |
| New England Patriots | -440 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -430 |
| Green Bay Packers | -250 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -194 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -186 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -178 |
| Chicago Bears | -170 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -156 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -152 |
| New York Giants | -150 |
| Tennessee Titans | -126 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -116 |
| Detroit Lions | -108 |
Safest Picks
Buffalo Bills (-950), San Francisco 49ers (-430)
Last week, many survivor pool contestants hemmed and hawed over which teams they were most confident in selecting. This week, contestants can breathe a huge sigh of relief. Though the Bills and 49ers are a combined 9-1, neither of them have likely been given serious consideration for use in a survivor pool yet. Buffalo and San Francisco play the Dolphins and Redskins respectively. Both Miami and Washington figure to be drafting in the top three of next year’s draft.
The Buffalo Bills figure to be the more popular survivor pool play this week given that they are at home against the weaker opponent. If you are looking to survive and advance, look no further than the Bills. However, now is the part of the season where one should strategize future selections a little bit more. The Bills get the Redskins at home two weeks from now. Meanwhile, the 49ers schedule looks a bit tougher down the stretch. Those using Buffalo this week could always use the 49ers when they play the Cardinals (on 10/31 and 11/17). However, I am a little bit more leery of divisional matchups (the Dolphins are the exception to the rule). Even though the 49ers travel to the east coast at 1:00, they could be used confidently this week if you would rather use the Bills at home against the Redskins.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Green Bay Packers (-250), Jacksonville Jaguars (-166)
It is worth repeating, there is no need for any survivor pool pick this week outside of the Bills and 49ers. Enjoy this gift-wrapped week and get ready for Week 8. That being said, there will be some contestants who will still prefer to save these teams for later in the season.
The Green Bay Packers benefit from an incredible scheduling edge in their matchup against the Raiders. Green Bay will be playing their fifth home game in six weeks in this game. Although the Raiders are coming off a bye, they have not played a home game since Week 2 against the Chiefs. However, the Raiders have shown signs of life with impressive wins over Indianapolis and Chicago. There are many better spots to use Green Bay.
The Jacksonville Jaguars look to rebound from a disappointing offensive showing last week as they face the winless Cincinnati Bengals. Sooner or later, the Bengals are going to get their first win. They have been competitive against some really good teams (Buffalo, Seattle, Baltimore). The Vegas spread on this game is just three points, which has me thinking maybe the oddsmakers know something here. Avoid the Jaguars this week, especially until they can show more offensive consistency.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
New York Giants (-150)
If the New York Giants can get most of their injured skill players back this week (Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard), they will be a very popular play. Arizona has looked better of late, but they face the unenvious task of traveling to the east coast for a 1:00 start in this game. Keep your eye on the injury report throughout the week, as the Giants are a lot more comfortable of a play if they seem healthy. One thing to keep in mind when making this pick though is that Daniel Jones has not yet played a game with Saquon Barkley. It may take them some time to gel.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.