NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 7 (2020)

by Mike Spector |
Oct 21, 2020

For the second week in a row, it looked like survivor pools were going to be in complete chaos after a number of thrilling 1:00 games. While the biggest favorite on the board went down (New England Patriots), the Indianapolis Colts allowed many survivor pool contestants to breathe a sigh of relief by digging out of a 21-0 hole en route to a 31-27 victory. Readers were warned in last week's column to stay away from the Patriots and Colts while being advised to play the gift that the NFL schedule makers gave us with the Dolphins against the Jets. Even our "contrarian play" of the Lions over the Jaguars won with ease.

Favorites went 9-5 SU overall in Week 6, including two losses among the top five moneyline favorites of the week. The five favorites who lost were the New England Patriots (-400), Minnesota Vikings (-194), Los Angeles Rams (-178), Carolina Panthers (-152), and Green Bay Packers (-136).

Like always, my selections for this week will be broken down by the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path. Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 7 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

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TEAM	ODDS
Buffalo Bills	-770
Kansas City Chiefs	-480
Los Angeles Chargers	-390
New Orleans Saints	-360
Los Angeles Rams	-245
Philadelphia Eagles	-210
Seattle Seahawks	-210
Green Bay Packers	-194
Dallas Cowboys	-174
Cleveland Browns	-168
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-152
Atlanta Falcons	-146
New England Patriots	-142
Pittsburgh Steelers	-134

Safest Picks

Buffalo Bills (-770), Los Angeles Chargers (-390)

Many survivor pool contestants are staying alive and advancing each win by simply picking against the New York Jets. It is not a bad strategy considering how dysfunctional they look, but some contestants may not be able to use that plan this week since the Jets have already faced the Buffalo Bills in Week 1. The Bills are easily the biggest favorites on the board and are currently the only team on the Week 7 slate favored by double digits. The Bills have struggled in the last two weeks, losing to the Titans and Chiefs by a combined 68-33. However, there is no shame in losing to those teams as they are each bonafide contenders in the AFC. The Jets are anything but a contender and the Bills will be thankful to have such a cupcake of an opponent at a time when they desperately need a win.

Much like the Jets have gotten "picked on" in survivor pools, so too have the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off an early bye week to face a Jaguars team that has lost five games in a row by an average of 12.6 PPG. Outside of the Titans in Week 2, the Jaguars have not played a team with a winning record in that span. The Chargers are mired in a four-game losing streak of their own but have played much stiffer competition in the Chiefs, Panthers, Buccaneers, and Saints. Los Angeles had leads late in many of those games, as rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has played very well through four starts. The bye week came at a great time for the Chargers, as they can get over the mental anguish of how they have let so many late leads slip away. They should be able to control this game against Jacksonville from beginning to end and put away a team that is not opposed to sitting its starting quarterback.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Kansas City Chiefs (-480), New Orleans Saints (-360), Los Angeles Rams (-245), Philadelphia Eagles (-210), Cleveland Browns (-168)

The last time the Kansas City Chiefs were a big favorite against a division rival, they were beaten outright by the Las Vegas Raiders. Now they head on a short week to the altitude of Denver to face a Broncos team riding high off a win over the Patriots. Though quarterback Drew Lock was unable to lead the team on a touchdown drive (they settled for six field goals), the fact that he was healthy was a breath of fresh air for Broncos fans after having to sit through games with Brett Rypien and Jeff Driskel. While the Chiefs should be able to win this game, they are much better spots to use them if you have not already. Have you seen who they play next week? Hint: a winless team from New York.

The New Orleans Saints are coming off a bye week and will face their division rival Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are not as bad as many projected them to be under first year head coach Matt Rhule. At 3-3, they have shown they can play solid defense while holding high-powered offenses like the Cardinals and Falcons well under their season averages. The last time we saw the Saints, they were a Michael Badgley kick hitting the upright away from losing at home to the Chargers. The Saints seem to lose an inexcusable game at home every year, so it would not be wise to tempt fate this week against a divisional opponent.

Despite a disappointing loss to a banged-up 49ers team, the Los Angeles Rams are still right in the thick of the NFC West race at 4-2. They are surprisingly big home favorites over the 5-1 Bears despite their offense topping 17 points just once in the last three games. Los Angeles's four wins have come against each NFC East team, so until they beat someone good I would want no part of them beating a team that is leading its division.

Speaking of banged-up football teams, no one can lay a bigger claim to the "injury bug" than the Philadelphia Eagles. They were already without their top two receivers all season, and now they received news that Miles Sanders and Zach Ertz will miss Thursday's game against the Giants. Many will be tempted to play the Eagles as it is a Thursday game and they will want to get their survivor pick out of the way early. However, New York has played surprisingly well on defense of late after holding two of their last three opponents to 20 points or less. The Eagles simply do not have enough offensive weapons to warrant them being a confident pick this week.

The Cleveland Browns have been dismantled in their two losses to the Ravens and Steelers by a combined 78-13. While the Bengals are not in the same class as those teams, this is still the vaunted "division rival where the favorite is on the road" scenario that should be avoided in survivor pools. Just ask how many people lost their entries with the Colts against the Jaguars in Week 1. A repeat of that can certainly happen in this one.

Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool

Atlanta Falcons (-146)

Maybe all the Falcons needed for a spark was a new face on the sidelines. Atlanta looked like an inspired football team under interim coach Raheem Morris last week as they pounded the Vikings 40-23. It also helped that wide receiver Julio Jones was back and healthy, as it cannot be overstated how much he means to this offense. While Detroit's two wins this year have come on the road, asking a team of their caliber to win back-to-back road games is a tall order. You are likely not using Atlanta in any of their games for the remainder of the season, so this is a decent opportunity to survive and advance with a bad football team who just may happen to be playing someone worse this week.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 7 (2020)

Safest Picks

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool

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