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NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 8 (2019)

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Those who were already eliminated from survivor pool competitions before Week 7 must have been kicking themselves since last week was set up perfectly for advancing. Both the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers faced horrendous teams, and it is likely that competitors had not used either team in prior weeks. Usually, survivor pools get tough around this time of year, as most of the better teams have been used. Last week was a “gift from the survivor gods,” as both “safest picks” from last week’s column won by two scores. From a betting perspective, it was a good week for the favorites. Six of the seven biggest favorites all won outright. The lone loss was Seattle at -194 losing at home to the Ravens. What does Week 8 have in store?

Like always, my selections for this week will be broken down by the following categories: Safest Picks, Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular, and Contrarian Plays to Beat a Large Pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path, or have already used the teams I will suggest.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 8 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

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TEAM ODDS
Minnesota Vikings -950
Pittsburgh Steelers -750
New England Patriots -750
Los Angeles Rams -600
New Orleans Saints -430
Detroit Lions -300
Seattle Seahawks  -270
Indianapolis Colts -260
Houston Texans -250
Jacksonville Jaguars -245
San Francisco 49ers -240
Green Bay Packers -225
Chicago Bears -200
Tennessee Titans -136
Buffalo Bills -122

 

Safest Picks

Minnesota Vikings (-950), Pittsburgh Steelers (-750), Los Angeles Rams (-600)
Week 8 is setting up eerily similar to Week 7 in that there is an abundance of good teams that likely haven’t been used playing inferior opponents. The Minnesota Vikings welcome the 1-6 Washington Redskins on Thursday night. If you didn’t use Minnesota in Week 5 against the Giants, now is a great time. Minnesota is currently a 16-point favorite, just a half-point shy of the largest Thursday night spread ever. The only thing possibly keeping this game interesting is the return of Adrian Peterson to his old stomping grounds.

Another week of NFL games and another great opportunity to oppose the Miami Dolphins in survivor pools. This week, the Pittsburgh Steelers get a chance to feast on the winless Dolphins. Pittsburgh is in a great spot off a bye playing on Monday Night Football. The last time the Steelers played at home against a winless team on MNF they cruised to a 27-3 win over the Bengals. Expect a similar result this week, especially since Mason Rudolph will be under center after clearing the concussion protocol.

The Los Angeles Rams face the NFL’s other winless team this week in the Cincinnati Bengals. This will be the third of four games the NFL will play in London this year. The Rams silenced doubters for at least a week with a 37-10 trouncing of the Atlanta Falcons. Even if Jared Goff regresses to the form he had during the team’s recent three-game skid, it should still be enough to beat the hapless Bengals. 

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

New Orleans Saints (-430), Detroit Lions (-300)
Drew Brees is set to practice this week, and we will see if he is ready to suit up on Sunday. One would think getting back a Hall of Fame quarterback would make picking the Saints easier. However, I worry if Brees does play that there is some rust and a readjustment period. I’d even rather wait two weeks to use the Saints when they are coming off their bye to face Atlanta. In addition, Arizona has been playing good football of late. They are riding a three-game win streak and are more than capable of pulling a surprise here. 

The Detroit Lions will be a popular play, given how bad their opponent looked last week. The New York Giants laid an egg against Arizona last week. They had difficulty stopping the run, as backup running back Chase Edmonds gashed them for 126 yards and three touchdowns. In addition, Daniel Jones was sacked eight times and committed three turnovers. However, Detroit is in the midst of a three-game losing streak. Starting running back Kerryon Johnson stands to miss some time after suffering a knee injury last week. As poor as the Giants look right now, I’d rather use Detroit when they are not as banged up, nor in the middle of a long losing streak.

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

Indianapolis Colts (-260)
First off, I will start by saying the Colts only being favored by six points against the Denver Broncos this week has me worried. These two teams are going in opposite directions. Indianapolis is coming off two impressive victories at Kansas City, and last week against division-rival Houston. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos looked lifeless in a 30-6 loss to Kansas City even after Patrick Mahomes left the game. Oddsmakers may think the Colts are due for a letdown spot here.

Indianapolis is in play if one still desires to save some of the better teams. In my opinion, there is no need to do that given Pittsburgh plays Miami this week. In addition, the Colts play the Dolphins at home in Week 10. Either way, it is hard to envision Indianapolis losing this type of game on the heels of two impressive victories.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.