NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 8 (2020)
Each season, there tends to be an ebb and flow to survivor pool contests. Some weeks there are massive upsets which seem to knock out more than half the remaining entries. Other weeks, it seems like all the big favorites win and there are hardly any contestants eliminated. Week 7 seemed very much the latter, as the top six favorites all won outright.
Favorites went 10-4 SU overall in Week 7, and there was not a loss until the seventh-biggest moneyline favorite on the list. The four favorites who lost were the Seattle Seahawks (-210), Dallas Cowboys (-174 but kicked off as an underdog at most sportsbooks), Atlanta Falcons (-146), and New England Patriots (-142).
Like always, my selections for this week will be broken down by the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path. Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 8 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -2500 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -500 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -350 |
| Green Bay Packers | -310 |
| Tennessee Titans | -255 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -210 |
| New Orleans Saints | -200 |
| Buffalo Bills | -188 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -184 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -176 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -174 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -164 |
| Carolina Panthers | -158 |
| Cleveland Browns | -148 |
Safest Picks
Kansas City Chiefs (-2500), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-500), Philadelphia Eagles (-350)
As far as survivor pool picks go, there has not been a safer one in recent memory than the Kansas City Chiefs over the New York Jets this week. There is not much need for analysis here, as there is no chance the defending Super Bowl Champions lose to the winless Jets at home. The only debate here is whether or not to use the Chiefs this week if you still have them available, or save them for a week where the pickings are slim.
All of a sudden, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are looking like a team with a great chance of winning the Super Bowl. Many people speculated whether or not Tom Brady had enough left in the tank at the age of 43 to elevate a different franchise to championship status. Not only has he seemed to gel with all his new weapons, but the Buccaneers all of a sudden also have one of the most fearsome defenses in the league. That spells doom for quarterback Daniel Jones and the Giants offense who has topped 21 points just once in seven games this season.
Those who would prefer to save the more elite teams like the Chiefs or Buccaneers should feel safe in picking the Philadelphia Eagles this week. With Dallas quarterback Andy Dalton in the concussion protocol and looking more and more likely to miss this week’s game, the Cowboys’ chances this week rely on Ben DiNucci who has thrown just three career passes. ESPN’s FPI gives Philadelphia a 73% chance to win. Though the Eagles still have injuries of their own to deal with, the Cowboys arguably have more injuries in key spots like their offensive line to go along with their lack of quarterback depth. If Ben DiNucci beats you to knock you out of your survivor pool, so be it.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Green Bay Packers (-310), Los Angeles Rams (-210), New Orleans Saints (-200)
The Green Bay Packers get set for a Week 1 rematch with their division rival Minnesota Vikings. The Packers won that game 43-34, but the game was not as close as the final score would indicate. Though Aaron Rodgers threw for 364 yards and four touchdowns in that game, you can expect Vikings defensive-minded coach Mike Zimmer to have a much better game plan this time around. One could make the argument that it would be smarter to pick the Packers against any other team in their division instead of a team they played just seven weeks ago.
The Los Angeles Rams dominated the then 5-1 Chicago Bears on both sides of the ball on Monday night. They were the more physical team, the more well-coached team, and exposed the Bears as a fraudulent 5-2 team for the time being. They now get set to face a Miami Dolphins team that is turning their offense over to rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. With little film by which to scout Tagovailoa, it stands to reason that the unfamiliarity will catch the Rams defense by surprise. In addition, the Dolphins have a massive scheduling edge coming off a bye, while the Rams have to fly cross-country on a short week. The Rams should win, but I would want no part of picking this game.
All New Orleans Saints defenders are licking their chops to face a Chicago Bears offense that scored just three points and amassed 279 total yards against the Rams on Monday night. The Saints also have a massive scheduling advantage in this game, coming off a bye to face a team playing on a short week. However, Drew Brees’s career numbers are vastly different on the road than at home in his career, especially in cold weather which is expected this time of year in the Windy City. While the Bears offense is not likely to light it up this week, their defense is good enough to keep them in any game they play.
Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool
Tennessee Titans (-255)
The fear of picking the Tennessee Titans in survivor pools this week is the chance that there may be a hangover effect in losing their battle of unbeaten teams against the Steelers. In addition, the Cincinnati Bengals are better than their 1-5-1 record would indicate. Four of Cincinnati’s five losses have come by five points or less, and they are 5-2 ATS this year. Thus, as six-point underdogs, oddsmakers suggest they may hang around with the Titans for most of the game. However, I expect Tennessee’s physical running game that could never quite get going against Pittsburgh to dominate Cincinnati’s 28th-ranked rush defense. Instead of waiting to pick the Titans against a divisional opponent like Houston or Jacksonville, this game should be picked with more confidence than those others.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.