NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 9 (2019)
Those who were still alive in survivor pools entering Week 8 stand a great chance of still being alive as Week 9 begins. Week 8 was devoid of any significant upsets, as favorites went 13-2 SU. The only two underdogs to win outright were the Eagles over the Bills and the Chargers over the Bears. Amazingly, the NFL still has two winless teams (Dolphins, Bengals) and three more teams with just one win (Falcons, Redskins, Jets). Let’s take a look at the Week 9 slate and see if any of these teams, or others, have matchups one can exploit in survivor pools.
Like always, my selections for this week will be broken down by the following categories: Safest Picks, Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular, and Contrarian Plays to Beat a Large Pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path, or have already used the teams I will suggest.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 9 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Buffalo Bills | -460 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -400 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -300 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -270 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -225 |
| New York Jets | -225 |
| Carolina Panthers | -210 |
| Green Bay Packers | -190 |
| New England Patriots | -178 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -156 |
| Houston Texans | -130 |
| Cleveland Browns | -130 |
| Oakland Raiders | -122 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -116 |
Safest Picks
Buffalo Bills (-460), San Francisco 49ers (-400)
The Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers were likely the most popular survivor pool picks two weeks ago. The Bills welcomed the winless Miami Dolphins while the 49ers traveled to Washington that week. While neither team covered the spread, they each won those games by two possessions. Assuming you used one of those teams two weeks ago, the smartest thing to do would be to use the other team this week.
The Bills welcome the 1-7 Redskins to Orchard Park. The Redskins have managed to score a total of 36 points in their last five games, with 17 of those coming against the winless Dolphins. Quarterback Case Keenum is in the concussion protocol, and rookie Dwayne Haskins has looked incapable of running the offense in his first season. The Bills got manhandled by the Eagles 31-13 last week, but this is an outstanding bounce-back opportunity. Buffalo has another advantage in that they are playing their third consecutive home game this week.
The 49ers are the slightest bit riskier of these two picks. They have to travel on a short week against a division rival in Arizona. These two teams meet twice in the next three weeks, so you wonder if the 49ers coaching staff will throw everything at Arizona in this contest. That being said, the 7-0 49ers are coming off their most impressive performance of the season. They held the Panthers to 230 total yards in a 51-13 win. If you have both teams available, I would lean picking the Bills over the 49ers, but you cannot go wrong either way.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Dallas Cowboys (-300), Seattle Seahawks (-270), New York Jets (-225)
The Dallas Cowboys are 7.5 point favorites at the Giants this week. This is significant because they have not been more than a touchdown favorite at New York since 1997. Interestingly enough, the Giants won that game 20-17. The Cowboys come in rested off a bye, and just got done decimating the Eagles 37-10 in their last game action. However, they are just 1-2 on the road this season, which includes a loss to the Jets in the very same stadium they will be traveling to. If the Jets can beat the Cowboys (which still stands as their only victory on the season), why can’t the Giants?
The Seattle Seahawks welcome the Buccaneers to CenturyLink Field. In the past, Seattle’s defense has been lights out at home. However, this year their defense is allowing 28 PPG in home contests. They nearly blew a 24-0 halftime lead against Atlanta last week and held on for a 27-20 win. Seattle’s last three wins have come by an average of four points. Many will be tempted to pick the Seahawks this week since their schedule does not get any easier in the second half, but I warn you to tread lightly.
There will be many people who will not bat an eye at picking the 1-6 Jets in survivor pools this week. They head to Miami to take on the 0-7 Dolphins, yet history has not been kind to the Jets against Miami. The Jets are 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Dolphins. On top of that, quarterback Sam Darnold is dealing with a sprained left thumb. The team just traded away DL Leonard Williams, and are open to other moves as well. The Jets are a team I want no part of this week, no matter who their opponent is.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Cleveland Browns (-130)
Picking the 2-5 Browns to beat the Broncos in Denver sounded like lunacy a week ago. However, Broncos quarterback Joe Flacco has been ruled out for Week 9 with a neck injury. His replacement is Brandon Allen whom they claimed off waivers from the Rams on September 1st. Given Denver’s murky quarterback situation, Cleveland’s defense should be able to play well enough for the Browns to win, no matter how Baker Mayfield plays.
Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.