NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 9 (2020)
Week 8 was not a complete catastrophe for survivor pool contestants but was sure to knock out any contestant who got “cute†with their picks. The three safest picks from last week’s column (Chiefs, Buccaneers, Eagles) all won, while more contrarian picks of the Packers, Titans and Rams fell by the wayside.
Favorites went just 7-7 SU overall in Week 7 despite the three biggest favorites on the board winning. Thus, if you are a moneyline bettor you stood to either win or lose a lot of money last week depending on your wagering strategies.
Like always, my selections for this week will be broken down by the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path. Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 9 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
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| TEAM | ODDS |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -550 |
| New England Patriots | -335 |
| Houston Texans | -295 |
| Tennessee Titans | -250 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -250 |
| Green Bay Packers | -245 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -210 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -205 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -198 |
| Washington Football Team | -164 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -158 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -158 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -122 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | OFF |
Safest Picks
Kansas City Chiefs (-550), Houston Texans (-295), Pittsburgh Steelers (OFF)
If you still have the Kansas City Chiefs available to use in your survivor pools, congratulations. This is a great week to use them since the pickings are so slim. While Week 9 should mark the return of All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey for Carolina, he may be on a snap count early so as not to push his injured ankle right away. The Chiefs offense is rolling lately, averaging 39 PPG over their last two games. Though the Panthers are widely regarded as having an underrated defense, the statistics show that when they play teams with a winning record they do tend to give up a lot of points. In five games against teams with winning records (Raiders, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Bears, Saints) the Panthers have allowed 27.2 PPG. Teddy Bridgewater has a great record of covering spreads as an underdog, but the Panthers are not a serious threat to win outright at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Houston Texans are looking for their second win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the last five weeks. In Week 5, they beat the Jaguars 30-14 as quarterback Deshaun Watson threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns. If that was not reason alone to be confident in the Texans, the Jaguars are turning to rookie Jake Luton for his first career start in place of the injured Gardner Minshew. X-rays revealed multiple fractures in Minshew’s thumb, so a 30th-ranked Texans defense should be able to “get right†against a rookie who will likely be overwhelmed in his first game action.
There is no line yet on the Pittsburgh Steelers matchup with the Dallas Cowboys as we still await the result on whether or not Cowboys quarterback Andy Dalton cleared concussion protocol. If Dalton is not cleared, this is an automatic play on the Steelers, who are the NFL’s last remaining unbeaten team while the Cowboys have not even so much as covered a spread all year. Even if Dalton is cleared, the only worry with taking the Steelers is whether or not there will be a hangover effect from a hard-fought game against the Baltimore Ravens. However, Mike Tomlin is too good of a coach to have his team lose focus against a high-profile team like the Cowboys in a game that most of the country will see.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
New England Patriots (-335), Green Bay Packers (-245), Arizona Cardinals (-205)
There are certain survivor pool contestants that abide by the rule of never picking a divisional opponent on the road, no matter what the circumstances. Given that the New England Patriots are mired in a four-game losing streak and are not considered a threat offensively by any means, this has all the makings of a complete stay-away spot even if they are facing the lowly Jets.
It is crazy to think so, but the Green Bay Packers will likely be a popular survivor pool pick this week despite their surprising loss to Minnesota last week. That is because of how injured the San Francisco 49ers are, who will be without Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, and a number of other starters for this Thursday night contest. However, backup quarterback Nick Mullens has plenty of experience under center as he has made ten starts over the last three years. He led the team on three fourth quarter touchdowns against Seattle last week, so perhaps the team can build off that positive momentum. In addition, Green Bay’s backfield looks like an absolute mess at the moment considering Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon are on the reserve/COVID list while Aaron Jones’s status remains uncertain. Those who are tempted to pick the Packers in this game should go back and watch the tape of last year’s NFC Championship game.
Despite the Miami Dolphins entering this game against the Arizona Cardinals with a 4-3 record, the Cardinals will likely be a popular play because of how unspectacular rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa looked in his debut. Tagovailoa was not asked to do much as his defense forced four turnovers while their special teams also pitched in a touchdown. The Cardinals are off a bye and have won three games in a row including an overtime thriller against the Seahawks in their last game. However, the Dolphins have an underrated defense and they have beaten two NFC West teams already this year, so it is not unfathomable they could add Arizona to that list.
Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool
Minnesota Vikings (-198)
Vikings running back Dalvin Cook did his best Bo Jackson impersonation as he amassed 226 total yards and four touchdowns in an impressive 28-22 upset of the Green Bay Packers. Now Minnesota faces a Detroit team fresh off a 20-point drubbing at the hands of the Colts. The Lions will be without their best receiver Kenny Golladay as he is out at least this week with a hip injury. Detroit backers better hope that they play better than the 23rd-ranked run defense than they are right now, or else Cook will have another field day. This is not my favorite survivor pool pick, as the four-point spread considering all the circumstances has me wondering why the line is so fishy. However, compared to the other games lower down on the odds list, it is one that will be sure to spark the most confidence.
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