NFL Thanksgiving Day Parlay

There is no better regular-season tradition in sports than NFL football on Thanksgiving Day. The NBA tries to rival the NFL with their Christmas Day schedule, but it does not hold the same value. No matter how good or bad the Lions and the Cowboys are, there is something magical about football in Detroit and Dallas on the fourth Thursday of November. In recent years, the NFL has also given us a third game at night, which is usually a battle of teams in the same division.

Even the most casual bettors are tempted to wager on the three Thanksgiving Day games, if not for any reason other than nostalgia purposes. Let's take a look at the three games and what the best bet from each is. The three bets will combine to form our Thanksgiving Day Parlay.

(odds courtesy of FanDuel)

FanDuel Sportsbook: View our review and access special sports betting offers >>

12:30 PM EST

Chicago Bears (-3) at Detroit Lions 

Money Lines: Bears (-166), Lions (+144)

O/U: 38.5

The 5-6 Bears head to Detroit to face the 3-7-1 Lions in the first of three Thanksgiving Day games. This matchup had so much promise earlier in the season after the Bears started 3-1 and the Lions began 2-0-1. Since then, Mitchell Trubisky has looked anything but the Bears franchise quarterback and Matthew Stafford may miss the rest of the season with a back injury. Thus, this is a battle of the struggling Trubisky and backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. Driskel made his first start three weeks ago against these same Bears at Soldier Field. He went 27-46 for 269 yards with one touchdown and one interception. The Bears won that game 20-13.

Since their first matchup, the Bears have averaged 13 PPG while allowing 15.5 PPG. Considering the Lions could only muster 16 points last week against the struggling Redskins, everything in this game suggests taking the under. Jeff Driskel is officially listed as questionable with a hamstring injury that he aggravated last week. A lot of what makes Driskel somewhat dangerous is his ability to run. If Driskel does not pose as a running threat, Khalil Mack and the Bears defense will tee off on him. 

In their first meeting, the Bears could only manage 81 yards on 24 carries (3.4 YPC) on the Lions 24th ranked rush defense. With Darius Slay capable of neutralizing Chicago's top outside weapon in Allen Robinson II, the Bears offense will find it tough sledding once again. Throw in the fact that this is an early start on a short week, the under is the most sensible play.

PICK: UNDER 38.5   

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Bears at Lions >>

4:30 PM EST

Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)

Money Lines: Bills (+245), Cowboys (-290)

O/U: 46.5

Those that grew up in the 1990s love the nostalgia behind this matchup. These two teams met in consecutive Super Bowls in 1992 and 1993, with the Cowboys winning both by a combined 82-20. The best bet in this game is the over on how many flashbacks or references there will be to guys like Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas.

Since that is not an actual bet, let’s dive into what we have been seeing on the field. The Buffalo Bills continue to win ugly, their latest 20-3 win over the Broncos being their best example. They have played just two teams with winning records, scoring a combined 24 points in those two games. Speaking of teams with winning records, the Dallas Cowboys have yet to beat one. Four of their six wins have come from within the division. The other two wins were over the Lions and Redskins who have five wins between them.

Though the Bills are a respectable 3-2 in their last five games, their rush defense has looked vulnerable at times. They allowed 147 yards rushing to the Browns, 127 to the Redskins, and 218 to the Eagles recently. While they corrected these issues in their last two games against the Dolphins and Broncos (allowed 23 and 85 rushing yards respectively), these two teams are not exactly worldbeaters on offense. 

The Cowboys are capable of using a ground-and-pound approach with Ezekiel Elliot and dominating this game in the trenches. Bills cornerback Tre'Davious White should be able to lock up Amari Cooper, which should place even more of an emphasis on getting Zeke going. While Buffalo seems destined for the 5th or seed 6th in the AFC playoffs, Dallas needs this game to maintain their one-game lead over the Eagles in the NFC East. A desperate Cowboys team will find a way to do what the Bills usually do best: win ugly.

PICK: Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) 

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Bills at Cowboys >>

8:20 PM EST

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Money Lines: Saints (-310), Falcons (+260)

O/U: 48.5

This NFC South battle is a rematch of a game three weeks ago which the Falcons won 26-9. Atlanta seemed on the verge of a breakthrough, following up that impressive win with a 29-3 drubbing of the Panthers. However, we are left to ponder once again just who are the Falcons, after they laid an egg last week in a 35-22 home loss to the Buccaneers.

Though the Saints have won eight of their last nine games, their defense has given them cause for concern. They have allowed 24.6 PPG to three straight divisional opponents, who you would think the Saints know very well. They head to Atlanta for their fourth straight divisional game. 

Trends in this series have favored the under, as four of their last five head-to-head matchups have gone under the total. However, I see the reasons why the over is the right side. The Falcons cannot run the ball and will look to an air-raid attack offensively. If Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore cannot play after missing the last game, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will feast on the Saints weaker cornerbacks. Meanwhile, Sean Payton is sure to call a more aggressive game given the ineptitude of his defense. The Falcons sacked Drew Brees six times in their first matchup but did not even sniff a sack last week against Tampa Bay. With more emphasis on protecting Brees, the surefire Hall of Famer should have a field day picking apart this defense. If you are still awake after eating all your turkey, tune in late as this should be a fun one.

PICK: OVER 48.5

THANKSGIVING DAY PARLAY: Bears/Lions UNDER 38.5, Cowboys (-6.5), Saints-Falcons OVER 48.5

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.