NFL Thanksgiving Picks & Player Prop Bets: Week 13 (2025)
Thanksgiving and football – a tradition as old as the holiday itself! As we gather around the table, Week 13 delivers a feast of NFL action with three marquee matchups on Thanksgiving Day. I’m Andrew Erickson, here to break down every angle of this special holiday slate, from the early kickoffs to the prime-time showdown under the lights.
With playoff implications on the line, family rivalries rekindled, and teams vying to make their mark, these games promise fierce competition and plenty of drama. Whether you're digesting turkey or crafting the perfect same-game parlay, I’ll guide you through the spreads, totals, and standout player props to target across all three matchups.
So, grab your favorite plate of food, settle into the couch, and prepare to enjoy a day filled with football and winning bets. This is just the start – stay tuned for my full BettingPros Week 13 Sunday Primer dropping soon!
Thanksgiving kicks off in Detroit as the Lions host the Packers in a classic NFC North showdown. Detroit remains one of the league's most explosive home offenses, while Green Bay enters fighting to stay afloat in the playoff race. Dome track meets potential right out of the gate.
The marquee game of the holiday. Patrick Mahomes vs. Dak Prescott on one of the fastest tracks in football. Both teams have top-tier offenses, both are fighting for playoff seeding, and both have defenses that can create turnovers. Fireworks expected at AT&T Stadium.
Thanksgiving wraps with a physical AFC North rivalry. Baltimore's defense has been one of the most improved units in football, while Cincinnati comes in led by their QB, Joe Burrow. Expect a chippy, high-leverage divisional battle in primetime.
And be sure to check out the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet throughout the Holiday Weekend.
Our highest rate bets in the Week 13 Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the Thanksgiving slate?
For TDs, it's JuJu Smith-Schuster (+1100). The second-best EV rating on the Anytime TD report.
He had a red-zone target last week (two inside the Colts' 25-yard line) and could see an expanded role if Rashee Rice is hampered by his hamstring injury. He also played his highest snap rate (47%) since Week 7 last week. Marquise Brown has seen his snaps decrease in 3 straight games.
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NFL Week 13 Thanksgiving Day Tripleheader: Feast and Football Edition
Top Best Bets:
- Lions -2.5
- BAL-CIN Under 51.5
- BAL-CIN First Half Under 26.5
Top Player Props:
Anytime TD Bets:
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions - Thursday, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)
Erickson's Pick: Lions -2.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Trends:
- The average total in the Lions’ last 33 home games has been 55.1 points; 70.5% (24/34) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
- In 10 of the Lions' last 13 games as favorites, the total points line has gone OVER.
- Fourteen of the Lions’ last 21 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Packers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games at Ford Field.
- The Packers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games.
- Since 2023, the Packers have been 22-6-1 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 18-11 ATS. Green Bay is 5-15 ATS when they allowed 23+ points on defense.
- The Packers are 1-6 ATS in their last six road games.
- The Packers are also 4-1 toward the over on the road this season (four straight overs).
- GB is 7-4 as a road underdog ATS since 2023 (4-7 SU).
- The Lions have won each of their last seven games against NFC North opponents on a winning streak.
- Each of the Lions’ last five games after coming off overtime have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Lions have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six home games against NFC North opponents.
- The Packers have lost four straight first halves as underdogs.
Overall:
Detroit at home on Thanksgiving is no longer an "eat your turkey through a blowout" spot - the Lions are a legit dome juggernaut. Green Bay's road defense has been leaky all year, and they've struggled away from Lambeau (bad ATS run on the road, overs hitting in those splits). With Jordan Love still managing this shoulder injury, this shapes up as a Lions-control game. Best angle: Detroit spread in a tighter-number spot, or just living on the Lions team total again (over 25.5 points). Only once this year have the Packers scored fewer than 27 points on the road this season (at Cleveland). Detroit will force GB to be more aggressive on offense (so naturally the over is ALWAYS in play at Ford Field, aka the Coors Fields of the NFL).
Per Next Gen Stats...The Lions’ defense has allowed the sixth-lowest success rate (39.0%) but the fourth-highest explosive play rate (17.5%) against 11 personnel this season. If Lions CB D.J. Reed locks up with Romeo Doubs...Christian Watson could have a field day. He has really stepped up in Tucker Kraft’s absence.
The Lions' defense has deployed man coverage on a league-high 43.7% of their opponents' dropbacks this season.
Watson has exceeded his receiving yards prop in all five games he has played this season. He also has at least 46 yards in four of those five games. Dating back to last season, he is hitting the over at an 80% clip. In 3 career games at Detroit, Watson has gone OVER 94 yards twice.
Defensively, the Packers might be without DL Karl Brooks and CB Keisean Nixon. Nixon has recorded 14 passes defensed across 60 targets faced in coverage this season (23.3%), the 2nd-most in the NFL, trailing only D.J. Turner (15) via Next Gen Stats. Again, my highest confidence spread bet on the Thanksgiving Card this week is Detroit. Are they really going to go three straight games without covering?
Props:
Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys - Thursday, 4:30 PM ET (CBS)
Erickson's Pick: Lean Dallas +3.5 and Game Total Under 52.5
Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Trends:
- KC is 8-3 toward the under this season.
- Each of the Chiefs’ last six games has gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Chiefs have lost each of their last three games as road favorites.
- The Chiefs have won the first half in nine of their last 10 games after coming off overtime.
- The Cowboys have covered the spread in each of their last four home games against teams that held a winning record.
- Dallas is 4-0 ATS as a home underdog.
- The Cowboys have conceded the first touchdown in five of their last six home games.
- Six of the Cowboys' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five straight following a win (also lost four of those five games straight up).
Overall:
The Cowboys are suddenly back in the mix and have been nails at home as underdogs - undefeated ATS in that role, fresh off the upset of Philly. Kansas City is better top-to-bottom, but they live in close games and keep leaning under as a team (8-3 to the under). The hook matters here; Dallas +3.5 is the early value if KC wins tight yet again. All but one of the Chiefs’ road games this season have been decided by one score or fewer.
Per Next Gen Stats...Dak Prescott has used play action on a career-high 28.7% of his dropbacks this season, the 7th-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks.
On play action, Prescott has posted an 80.0% completion percentage, the 2nd-highest in the NFL, while averaging 9.3 yards per attempt (4th-most) and throwing 12 TDs (2nd-most). The Chiefs have allowed a league-high 79.0% completion percentage and 10.2 yards per attempt (4th-most) to quarterbacks on play-action passes.
If Kareem Hunt is grinding out another 25-30 carry script, that also points away from a shootout. Note that both teams are going to be without key parts of their offensive line - Trey Smith and Tyler Guyton.
I think we can tease these lines because I don’t like picking sides if the final number is 3.
Dallas +7.5 and the over 44.5 points (-110 on DK). Even though I lean toward the under at 52.5 points...I've seen too many Cowboys games become shootouts to tease the line up and go under, given there's always a chance it's a bonanza. Dallas’ defense has improved, but they played the Raiders and Eagles – two offenses that are below average in PPG-the Chiefs rank 10th.
Since his season debut in Week 7, Rashee Rice has led the Chiefs in target share (26.0%) according to Next Gen Stats.
More specifically, Rice has been the Chiefs’ go-to target in the red zone, as his 44.8% red zone target share is the 5th-highest among all receivers in Weeks 7-12; no other Chiefs receiver has a mark above 14% during that span. Of his 13 red zone targets, six have come behind the line of scrimmage.
No defense has allowed more TDs to WRs this season than Dallas. If you want a fatter payout, look for Rice to score first at longer than 7-to-1 odds. I mean, come on...it's Thanksgiving. His last name is a food dish. The first TD practically writes itself.
Props:
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens - Thursday, 8:20 PM ET (NBC)
Erickson's Pick: Under 51.5 (First Half Under 26.5) – Lean Ravens -7
Confidence: ★★★★★
Trends:
- Baltimore is 14-15 ATS as home favorites and 11-6-1 ATS as home favorites in their last 18 (7-5-1 ATS as home favorites in 2024).
- Baltimore is 8-5-1 ATS as home favorites since 2024 - only once have they failed to cover a spread of fewer than 6 points.
- Baltimore is 14-8-1 toward the over as a home favorite since 2023.
- The Ravens have won each of their last 15 home games against AFC opponents on a losing streak.
- The home team has covered the spread in each of the last seven games between AFC North teams.
- Each of the last six games between the Bengals and Ravens has gone OVER the total points line.
- The Bengals have lost eight straight as road underdogs.
- The Bengals have conceded the first touchdown in each of their last four road games.
- The Bengals have the second-worst record ATS in the division (35%) since 2023.
- Seven of the Bengals' last 11 games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
This game and matchup usually screams over, but the context is totally different now: Joe Burrow is making his first start after a long layoff, Tee Higgins is out, and Baltimore's offense hasn't been humming with Lamar Jackson looking off the past couple of weeks. The Ravens defense is healthier and playing better, and Burrow’s return games historically start slower.
Instead of another 60-point fireworks show, the lean is toward a divisional under 53.5 in a grindy, lower-efficiency rivalry game. If I have to pick a side… I do lean toward the Ravens laying seven points at home. Jackson said he hurt his foot versus the Jets, which might have limited him in that particular matchup. Rashod Bateman is also coming back, which should give the Ravens another weapon to exploit the terrible Bengals’ defense.
But I LOVE the first half under as well at 26.5 points. If Burrow's magic comes alive...it likely would be in the second half. All four of the Ravens’ last games have finished UNDER 26.5 points in the first half.
And FWIW, Ja'Marr Chase averages fewer yards/points without Tee Higgins. His efficiency skyrockets when Higgins is healthy.
Dating back to 2023...Chase has hit the under on his 93.5 receiving yards prop in 70% of his games without Higgins (7/10). The overs obviously cooked - 264, 124, 192 – including a game versus the Ravens.
Still…Chase has also only gone over 93.5 yards once on the road this season.
Most would assume Chase's involvement in the offense would skyrocket with Higgins on the sideline, but Chase's target rate has jumped up just 3.6% with Higgins OFF the field as opposed to ON since he entered the league in 2021 (28.6% vs 25.0%).
Per Next Gen Stats...Chase had 112 total matchups against Ravens defenders in coverage last season. Of those 112 matchups, 26 came against Brandon Stephens, who is no longer on the team. Marlon Humphrey was in coverage for 16 of those matchups, while Nate Wiggins had 14. Against Humphrey, Chase was targeted 5 times, catching three passes for 48 yards, though Humphrey also recorded an interception. Against Wiggins, Chase was also targeted 5 times but managed just one reception for 12 yards.
No team is as bad at defending TEs as the Bengals. Good lord, they are awful. Mark Andrews anytime TD at +115 is free money. I also like sprinkling some anytime TD action on No.2 tight end, Isaiah Likely. 1.2 TEs allowed to TEs are more than double the next closest team.
Props:
- Ja'Marr Chase: Under 93.5 receiving yards
- Mark Andrews anytime TD (+115)
- Isaiah Likely anytime TD (+220)