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NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Primer (Bengals vs. Steelers)

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We're officially into the heart of the NFL season, and Week 7 opens with a classic AFC North battle under the lights. The Bengals are starting to rediscover their offensive rhythm behind journeyman QB Joe Flacco, while Pittsburgh looks to stay hot. A battle of 40-year-old QBs. What could be better? Expect a game where sacks, turnovers, and field position decide the cover.

Through six weeks, our 5-Star NFL Prop Bets from the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet have hit at a 59.03% win rate, returning +79.51 units and a 13.3% ROI.

The Thursday slate has been one of the most consistent profit spots - so we'll be digging into sack props, interception totals, and rushing attempts to open Week 7 strong.

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Thursday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals - Thursday, 8:15 PM ET (Amazon Prime)

BettingPros consensus odds: 

Erickson’s pick: Bengals +5.5

Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)

Why:

  • The Bengals play better at home even without Joe Burrow (6-3 SU since 2023)
  • AFC North matchups have been great betting opportunities for home teams. You also just want to err on the side of the underdog

Trends

Sides:

  • The favorites have won each of the Bengals’ last 11 games.
  • In each of the Bengals’ last five games, their opponents have been the first to 25 points.
  • The Bengals have won the first quarter in each of their last six games against AFC North opponents.
  • The Bengals have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last nine home games against the Steelers.
  • The home team has covered the spread in eight of the last nine games between AFC North teams.
  • The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.
  • As road favorites, the Steelers are 6-5 ATS.
  • The Steelers are 10-10 ATS and 12-9 ML on the road since the start of 2023.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Bengals’ last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bengals' last eight games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Bengals’ last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Steelers’ last 11 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Steelers are 5-9 O/U in divisional games since 2023.

Overall:

Home teams dominate the number in the AFC North. And that's just part of why I like the Bengals with the points at home. The Steelers are hardly a juggernaut (3-2 ATS) with their only comfortable win/cover coming last week at home versus a rookie QB. The Steelers have also failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

The Bengals got a boost offensively last week with Joe Flacco, and he can do enough to keep the Cincinnati Bengals within striking distance.

We've seen the divisional underdogs cover the spread at an 80% clip thus far on Thursday Night Football this season.

I also think doubling down on the Bengals if the Steelers open up a lead is a good live-betting angle. Cincy has trailed on 81% of its snaps this season. And when Flacco is your QB, the back door cover is always within reach.

Prop Angles:

Tee Higgins has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six home appearances. I expect Higgins to match up with Steelers CB, Joey Porter Jr., for a decent chunk in this game.

Per Next Gen Stats, when facing man coverage, Tee Higgins has been the Bengals' primary target, recording a 32.0% target rate against man this season, 4th-highest in the NFL (min. 50 routes).

Higgins has caught 9 of his 16 targets against man for 123 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 2.5 yards per route (5th-most). The Steelers defense has played man coverage at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL this season (41.1%), allowing just 5.1 yards per play on such dropbacks (NFL Average: 5.8).

In his first game returning from a hamstring injury, the Steelers CB played man coverage on 51.8% of his defensive snaps in Week 6, the 4th-highest rate in a game of his career (min 10 defensive snaps) - via Next Gen Stats. Porter spent 22.4 seconds in tight coverage when in man coverage last week, the most among outside corners in a game this season. He still has yet to allow a touchdown in man coverage across 88 targets since entering the league.

Mike Tomlin knows that Higgins can be a tough WR to cover. I think it's a battle between Higgins/Porter on Thursday night - with plenty of penalty flags thrown in contested tight coverage

That being said... Joe Flacco will jam targets into Higgins. 6th-highest tight window throw rate in Week 6.

After Higgins saw season-highs across the board with Flacco in Week 6…I like the receiving yards over. Just needs 1-2 plays over Porter in 1-on-1 coverage to hit the over.

Two games last year vs Pittsburgh, Higgins would have hit the UNDER on his receptions prop...but the OVER on this new receiving yards prop (61 yards per game).

I do recognize that the reception’s total might be low for Higgins. For a sharp payout, parlay the yardage OVER for Higgins and the receptions UNDER. +444 payout on FanDuel.

Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth has scored a touchdown in each of the Steelers’ last two games against the Bengals.

His overall role has been vaporized against 4-3 defenses, as I mentioned in last week's BP Primer. However, he still takes the field in the red zone (fourth-most red-zone snaps played in the last two games).

I think there's a value on a Patty F anytime red-zone TD at 7-1 odds.

Jaylen Warren has recorded a 40.3% missed tackle forced rate this season, the 2nd-highest rate among 79 players with at least 30 touches. Comparatively, Kenneth Gainwell has forced a missed tackle on just 20.0% of his touches (T-36th-highest). After playing on a season-high 77.4% of offensive snaps in Week 4 with Warren sidelined, Gainwell played on just 34.5% of snaps in Week 6 with Warren back in the lineup (Warren: 51.7%). The Bengals have missed 14.6% of their tackle attempts this season, the 6th-highest rate in the NFL (Next Gen Stats).

Warren's rushing prop is too low given the juicy matchup. He hit the over last week against the league's best run defense with 52 yards.

Chase Brown has been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 58.1% of his carries this season, the 2nd-highest among running backs (min. 50 carries).

Brown has also averaged -0.3 rushing yards before contact, the 2nd-lowest mark among that same group. While Brown was contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 42.4% of his carries last season (NFL Average: 38.9%), Brown still managed to average 3.4 rushing yards after contact per carry, compared to an average of just 3.0 this season.

The Bengals RB has rushed for fewer than 12.5 carries in four straight games - every game not started by Joe Burrow. Interestingly enough, the Brown usage TANKED in Week 6. He played just 54% of the snaps compared to Samaje Perine’s 46%. Perine even got the first carry and was only out-touched 8-11. The last two weeks, this has been closer to a 60/40 split.

Aaron Rodgers has attempted 30-plus passes once this season. They've committed to the run, and I'd expect that trend to continue against a terrible Cincy defense. 3 of the 5 QBs they have faced attempted fewer than 28 passes.

Noah Fant played the most snaps/routes among Bengals TEs in Week 6 - but it was split between him, Tanner Hudson (scored), and Drew Sample. Hudson is in concussion protocol (already ruled out), so that would narrow the tight end passing role to just Fant.

And although it's hard to believe, Flacco overlapped with Fant during the tight end's rookie season in Denver back in 2019. Wild times.

Fant has been a floor player in every game he's played in full this season, with at least 3-plus receptions for 26-plus yards. I’ll take the over on his 3.5 receptions.

Erickson’s Props:

Full TNF Card:

  • Bengals +5.5


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