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NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Primer (Cardinals vs. Seahawks)

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We’re rolling into the fourth week of the NFL season, and the Thursday night slate wastes no time delivering fireworks. 

Week 4 kicks off under the primetime lights with an NFC West showdown as the Arizona Cardinals host the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. Both teams are already jockeying for divisional positioning, and this matchup has the makings of a scrappy, high-intensity battle. With Kyler Murray in September form and Seattle's offense looking to stay hot against an improved (albeit banged-up) Cardinals defense, bettors will be weighing whether to trust points on the road or the volatility of Arizona at home.

From sharp insights on the spread and total to can’t-miss player props, I’ll help you build the perfect single-game parlay to kick off the week in style.

And remember, this is only the appetizer before the full BettingPros Week 4 Primer drops later this week – complete with live betting tips, prop angles, and expert sides/totals picks to keep you one step ahead of the books.

Also, don’t forget to join the BP Discord, where the community is always firing off sharp live-betting calls.

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Thursday Night Football

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks - Thursday, 8:20 PM ET (Amazon Prime Video)

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Lean Over 43.5 and Cardinals +1.5

Confidence: ★★ (2 out of 5)

Why: 

  • Arizona home games heavily skew toward the over
  • Value on the divisional home underdog.
  • Seattle overvalued against the Cardinals based on its track record and blowout win versus the Saints
  • Kyler Murray, as an underdog (65% ATS), especially in September, is no contest versus Sam Darnold as a favorite (41% ATS)

Trends

Sides:

  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games.
  • The Cardinals have scored the first touchdown in each of their last eight home games.
  • The road team has won 13 of the Seahawks' last 15 games.
  • The Seahawks have scored last in each of their last 11 road games.
  • The Seahawks have won each of their last seven road games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 games as favorites.
  • The Seahawks have won the first half in each of their last seven games against the Cardinals.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against the Cardinals.

Totals:

  • Each of the Cardinals’ last four home games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Cardinals' last 11 games as home favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Cardinals have been an UNDER machine on the road since the start of 2023 (5-12-1).
  • Five of the Cardinals’ last six games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Cardinals’ last 17 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Seahawks' last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall

The recurring theme with Cardinals home games is overs. The dome has been very favorable to points scored. Last season, when these teams faced off, it was 1-1 O/U. 22 points in Seattle and 48 points scored in Arizona (both strong performances from both teams' rushing attacks). However, both games closed with totals north of the current line of 43.5.

Seattle swept the series. And that's probably why Seattle is a slight road favorite given their recent strong track record versus MY Red Birds. Arizona was a field goal away from being 3-0 after losing by one point versus the 49ers in Week 3.

Meanwhile, I think Seattle is being overvalued on the road after beating up the Saints at home. I am always extremely wary of laying points with Sam Darnold, especially as a road favorite.

Arizona's defense is a bit banged up (particularly at CB), so they are susceptible to the Seahawks’ pass-catchers. The OL also has some issues, most notably, OT Paris Johnson Jr. and the Cardinals just put starting RB/team leader, James Conner, on IR. How effective will the ground attack be without Conner, with Trey Benson filling in? He offers more juice than the veteran. So there’s a chance for more big plays.

Seattle's definitely coming into this game healthier. And their defense has shown out, holding every team they have faced to 17 points or fewer. Given Arizona's past struggles against the Seahawks’ Mike Macdonald defense, I'm gun-shy on the game being a full-blown shootout even indoors. Might have gotten over…but not by much.

This is a tough divisional game to handicap. Arizona held the Darnold-led Vikings to 23 points last season, putting them just slightly ahead of their projected team total (21.5).

My leans are toward Arizona with the points a home (or just the value straight up on the money line), and toward the game total over 43.5 just based on the Cardinals’ home trends for points. But I think for my official play, I'll tease the lines.

Official: Over 36.5/Cardinals +4.5 for -110 odds.

Prop Angles:

  • Odds are more juiced for the Cardinals to score first (-120) than Seattle (-110). The trends agree that Arizona might strike first at home. Take advantage of that with 1st TD bets on Thursday Night.
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. had a game to forget in Week 3. He and Kyler Murray failed to connect (yet again) on a few deep passes. MHJ had a terrible drop. Even so he led the Cardinals in receiving yards. And the weekly targets for Harrison (5.7/game) suggest his yardage prop is just a tad too low. Projections have him closer to 50-plus. He also went for 47-plus in both games versus Seattle. Hardly a SMASH spot for MHJ, but a receiving prop he likely hits (even if it's not by much).
  • The fact that Harrison's receiving yards prop is not that far from Cooper Kupp's is bonkers. Kupp is under 42.5 yards in 2/3 games this season and in 7 of his last 10. Both games versus Arizona's defense last season? 37 and 29 yards. JSN is the engine of Seattle's passing game. Not Kupp. Under.
  • Speaking of which, Jaxson Smith-Njigba. OVER 6.5 receptions. 8-plus in his first two games, and he would have likely hit the over again had Seattle rested their guys in the fourth quarter last week.
  • Kyler Murray has hit the over on his rushing yards in three straight games. But versus Seattle in 2024, 2-0 toward the under.
  • Greg Dortch should play more with Zay Jones, who is likely out with a concussion. He had a red-zone carry last week. I like the longer shot odds of the Cardinals’ WRs to catch TDs in this matchup, given that 100% of Seattle's TDs allowed this season have been through the air. Arizona's not far behind at 80%.
  • For Seattle's side, go with JSN Anytime TD. Scored against them in both games last season. For 1st TD, I like Harrison. He gets a ton of red-zone looks, and Seattle might take their chances with him 1-on-1 compared to Trey McBride.

Erickson’s Props:

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