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NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Primer (Chargers vs. Vikings)

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We're kicking off Week 8 with a potential shootout under the lights between the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings - two offenses built to trade big plays and test every over bettor's patience. It's a classic Thursday night volatility setup: tempo vs. efficiency, explosive WRs on both sides, and plenty of live-bet opportunities once the pace settles.

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Thursday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings - Thursday, 8:15 PM ET (Amazon Prime)


Erickson's Pick: Chargers -3 (over 44.5)

Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

  • The Vikings have lost the first half in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Vikings have won seven of their last eight games against AFC opponents.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread or win outright as an underdog following a loss in five straight games (also lost the first half).
  • The Vikings have covered the spread in 7 of their last 12 games.
  • All but 12 of the Vikings’ last 38 games have been decided by eight points or fewer (76%).
  • The Chargers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in eight of the Chargers’ last 11 games at SoFi Stadium.
  • The Chargers are 15-10 ATS since the start of 2024 with Jim Harbaugh as HC.
  • 6-3 ATS as a home favorite overall and ATS.
  • Each of the Vikings’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Chargers’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line
  • Minnesota is 5-2 toward the over as a road underdog since 2023.

Overall:

We've seen the divisional underdogs absolutely COOK on Thursday nights this season (+80% clip through 7 weeks) - with many dogs winning outright (three in a row). But this game feels different between two non-conference opponents - both coming off losses.

Therefore, my lean is on the Chargers laying the points. Eventually, the favorites will get back to winning/covering on TNF...and a non-divisional contest seems like the get-right spot for the team that "should" win.

The Bolts have the superior QB and might get some offensive line help back this week. That's a big boost - give that without multiple starters last week, Justin Herbert was constantly under duress. The Chargers allowed the most pressures in a game of any offense since 2019 (35) per Next Gen Stats.

Minnesota will be trotting out Carson Wentz as the starting QB, who ran into turnover and pressure-to-sack issues last week. When in doubt, I like betting against Wentz, who has gone 2-2 straight up (both wins coming against Jake Browning and Dillon Gabriel) as the Vikings QB1.

The Vikings haven't been great bouncing back after losses as underdogs, whereas the Chargers seem overdue to cover at home after dropping four straight against the number.

As for the game total, I initially like the over. Dome conditions with playmakers littered on both sides. Last four weeks, these two QBs rank both top in expected fantasy PPG.

However, the red zone is very lopsided in favor of defense. Both offenses are below average in RZ TD conversion rate. Both defenses are top-5 defending in the red zone.

Think the game total is a shy away spot. Opt for the yardage totals on player props instead - because we could see these offenses stall out in the RZ.

Player Props

Against zone coverage this season, Carson Wentz has recorded the 2nd-highest success rate (55.8%) and 2nd-most yards per attempt (9.5). Against man coverage, he has averaged just 4.1 yards per attempt (2nd-fewest in the NFL) and recorded a 40.0% success rate (10th-lowest). The Chargers have played zone coverage at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL this season (83.5%) and have allowed just 6.8 yards per attempt when doing so (NFL Average: 7.2) via Next Gen Stats.

Justin Jefferson has averaged a career-low 2.6 yards per route this season, while also recording just a 25.4% target rate (2nd-lowest).

However, he has averaged a career-high 6.6 yards after the catch per reception, 1.2 yards more than his previous career-high. Jefferson has also averaged 3.1 yards of separation when targeted, the most in any season of his career. His catch rate (69.2%) with Carson Wentz would be the 2nd-highest of any season of his career, but he caught just 7 of 13 targets (53.8%) from J.J. McCarthy, with one touchdown and two interceptions.

Jefferson is also averaging over 100 receiving yards per game with Wentz as his QB. He's also gone over his receiving yards prop in five straight games.

After aligning in the slot on 64.6% of his snaps during his rookie season, Ladd McConkey has moved outside slightly more often this season, aligning in the slot on 61.6% of snaps and out wide on 33.2% of snaps (2024: 29.1%) - according to Next Gen Stats.

Despite a lower target rate out wide (15.6%) compared to the slot (23.4%), McConkey has been more efficient from a wide alignment, hauling in 11 of his 14 targets for 194 yards, generating +42 receiving yards over expected. In the slot, McConkey has caught 23 of his 40 targets for 172 yards and a touchdown, generating -44 receiving yards over expected. The Vikings have allowed receivers aligned out wide to average 10.3 yards per target this season, 3rd-most in the NFL.

Ladd McConkey had 15 targets (9-67, 27%) last week.

He also didn't score despite 3 RZ targets (all three in the end zone) and 113 incomplete air yards (34% air yard share). How he didn't go even more nuclear is beyond me. But the second-year WR is starting to close the gap on his two WR teammates. McConkey saw 11 targets from the slot last week. The Vikings have allowed high-end efficiency from the perimeters, while allowing the 5th-highest percentage of slot targets.

Translation? Ladd should see volume when working inside...and chunk gains when lined up out wide.

If you want to SGP this game - tease the Vikings to +8.5 and take the OVER 39.5. Minnesota usually keeps games within 8 points, and this just gives you a better chance at hitting the over (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook).

The Vikings have faced the second-fewest passing attempts this season. Justin Herbert - before last week's 55 pass attempt game - was averaging just 36 pass attempts per game.

Trusting the BP 5-star projection - with Herbert going under 35.5 attempts on Thursday night. No QB the Vikings have faced has attempted 36 passes yet this season (2-4 O/U).

RBs with more RZ touches than Kimani Vidal over the last three weeks: CMC and JT.  He's their guy if they get close to scoring.

Props:

Full TNF Card:

  • Chargers -3
  • Vikings +8.5 / Over 39.5 (teaser lines)

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