NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets: Patriots vs. Jets
Welcome to the ultimate Week 3 NFL tease from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to navigating every twist and turn on the Week 3 NFL slate. In this special edition, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated Patriots vs. Jets showdown as the third week of the NFL kicks off with Thursday Night Football. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to get your season started with a bang. This is just a taste of what's coming when the FULL BettingPros Week 3 Primer drops later this week. Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Thursday Night Football: MY Patriots vs. the Jets.
For a limited time, you can save $30 off your first month of Fubo (Try for Free) >>
Thursday Night Football Betting Primer
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Sides:
- The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 13 games.
- The Jets are 7-11-1 ATS since the start of 2023.
- The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games in September.
- The Patriots have won 15 of their last 16 games against the Jets.
- The Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six Thursday games.
Totals:
- Ten of the Jets' last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the Jets’ last 11 games against AFC East opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the last seven Patriots' games have gone OVER the projected game total.
- The Patriots’ defense allowed 300-plus yards for the first time against Seattle since Week 9 of the 2023 season.
- New England is 11-8 toward the under in their last 19 games (58%). The Jets have the same O/U record.
Overall:
The Jets finally got their first victory with Aaron Rodgers in Week 2 against the Tennessee Titans. The offense is still a work in progress, but Rodgers' status as PFF's 4th-highest graded QB through two games has Gang Green’s offense lightyears ahead of where it was last season.
New York didn't dominate the Titans (losing 10-7 at halftime), and they were outgained in total yards. The turnovers from Will Levis helped the Jets cover as road favorites. Levis's turnovers are the gift that keeps on giving.
New York's defense hasn't been as great as in 2023, and injuries to CB D.J. Reed, LB C.J. Mosley, and LB Jermaine Johnson won't help them slow down the Patriots' ground game on Thursday night. New England ranks eighth in rush rate over expectation through two games. New York has allowed 155 rushing yards per game to start the 2024 season.
The under on the game total would be my lean (shocker). It's another bet on the prime time under trend (60% hit rate in the last 65 contests). Similarly to how the Jets handled the Titans, they know they don't need to push the envelope to beat the Patriots at home.
New England's run-blocking has been great, but the pass protection remains a serious problem (bottom-5 per PFF). Jacoby Brissett was taking hit after hit in Week 2 and has been the second-most pressured quarterback to start the season. The veteran has been able to limit turnovers up to this point, but if the Jets jump out to a lead, that would pose serious issues for New England in a pass-heavy game script.
From a matchup perspective, the Patriots have the bodies on defense to slow down New York. Their solid run defense has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game (58) so far this season. Christian Gonzalez is a CB who can match up with Garrett Wilson.
But the Patriots’ defense has a major hole that showed up last week. They have a severe lack of pass rush, the sixth-lowest pressure rate in the NFL. Rodgers has been the second-least pressured quarterback thus far this season, so he should be kept clean for the majority of the contest. It makes me feel uneasy going for the Patriots’ ML bet.
Geno Smith passed for over 300 yards against the Pats in Week 2, but it still didn't help the Seahawks cover, as the game ended as a push.
Given my prediction for a lower-scoring contest, I’ve settled on the Patriots +6.5 as my side’s selection. Given their current makeup, I'm not confident the Jets are equipped to blow another team out, especially against a strong Patriots defense that matches up pretty well against them.
New York's defense also is weak against the Patriots' running game strength behind Rhamondre Stevenson.
Given the suppressed price of the total, I'll likely just skip it entirely at 38.5 and just take my Pats +6.5 on the road. No reason, based on what we have seen from these two teams thus far, that it should be this wide of a point spread.
Now to fun the part (props!).
Player Props
Breece Hall has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Jets’ last five games, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rhamondre Stevenson has scored a touchdown in three of his last four appearances. Stevenson has recorded 81+ rushing yards in five of his last six appearances, and 20-plus carries in four of his last five games. The Jets have allowed both RBs they have faced this season to go OVER their rushing yards projection.
Patriots WR Demario Douglas recently voiced his frustration over the lack of involvement in the Patriots offense through two weeks. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett acknowledged that he must be better at getting Douglas and others the ball more starting Thursday night against the New York Jets. Given that Douglas doesn't project to see much of Sauce Gardner inside the offensive formation, he should see a lot of opportunities in this game.
That being said, Hunter Henry is still the No. 1 target in the Patriots passing game. His odds are still way too long for the anytime TD score (+480).
Rodgers has been no stranger to aggressively targeting his WRs in the red zone. Allen Lazard (4) and Garrett Wilson (3) have combined for seven red-zone targets, with Lazard securing the lone TD score. Eventually, Wilson will find the end zone, but I don't love his odds at +145.
My favorite anytime TD bet is on Mike Williams. Williams was targeted once in Week 2, catching one pass for 19 yards. He made a nice sideline grab and played more than in Week 1 (65%). He's getting healthier and projects as a red-zone weapon for the Jets’ offense. Given Wilson will be shadowed by Gonzalez, this could be a bigger week for Williams. Bet his TD props and receiving yards props. The BP projections have him for 27.5 receiving yards.
Jets head coach Robert Saleh said this regarding Williams after Week 2.
“He feels good,” Saleh said. “That was one of the first questions we asked him yesterday. He had 35 snaps from my understanding. He wants more. His body feels good, so we’re going to continue to get him the ball.”
The two No. 1-highest touchdown EV Bets per the BettingPros anytime TD tool are Mike Williams and Hunter Henry. And that’s for the ENTIRE Week 3 slate.
Given that we often see scripted plays at the start of games versus the end of the game, I'll roll the dice on Williams getting a jump ball on the Jets' first red-zone possession if Breece Hall doesn't score first.
Big Mike +2000 for the first TD on Thursday Night Football. Get fired up.
My Picks: