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NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Bills vs. Patriots (Week 13)

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The Bills will head to Foxborough this Thursday to take on the Patriots. It’s an AFC East game with significant playoff implications for both teams. Both teams played last Thursday, with the Patriots losing in Minnesota while Buffalo picked up a win in Detroit. This will be the Bills’ first game in Foxborough since their massive 47-17 win in last year’s Wild Card playoff game.

With a total on this game of 43.5 points and a spread of Bills -4, this should be a pretty close game. Below is a parlay on Draftkings with great value based on recent trends for these teams.

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Leg 1: Bills First Quarter -0.5 (+100)

This season, the Bills have tended to get out to hot starts. They score 6.5 first-quarter points per game, good for 2nd most in the NFL. Josh Allen has opened games strongly this season, throwing for 747 yards on 66/95 (69.5%) passing with 6 TDs. While Buffalo’s 5.0 points allowed is a bottom-ten mark, their positive scoring margin here is a good sign.

On the other hand, the Patriots have struggled to score in first quarters this season. They’ve scored just 2.3 points per game in first quarters this season – the fourth least in the NFL. They have a first-quarter score share of 43.1%, compared to Buffalo’s 56.7%. This refers to the percentage of all first-quarter points in each team’s games that are scored by that team. Buffalo’s mark ranks top-ten in the NFL, while New England’s ranks bottom-ten.

With the Bills’ first-quarter success and the Patriots’ first-quarter struggles this season, getting even odds on the Bills winning the quarter is a great value.

Leg 2: Dawson Knox Anytime TD (+340)

While this play is a bit of a longshot, Dawson Knox matches up well with the New England defense. The Patriots have allowed 8 TDs to TEs this year in 11 games – this is second-most in the NFL, and they allowed Vikings’ TE TJ Hockenson to score against them just last week. Teams have realized New England is vulnerable against TEs, and have started to exploit this weakness this season.

Knox’s red zone usage is spotty, but he has gotten targets this year. He’s seen roughly one in ten Bills’ targets within the 10-yard line and approximately one in twelve targets within the 20. He cedes target share to star WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. I expect the Bills to attack the Patriots’ red zone weakness when they get into scoring range and give Knox a shot at a TD. Given New England’s track record this year, he’s likely to convert any opportunities he gets.

Leg 3: Josh Allen 1+ INT Thrown (-170)

Josh Allen has been one of the best QBs in the NFL this season. His one weakness, however, is throwing interceptions. He has tossed 11 interceptions this year, tied for most in the NFL with Davis Mills. Allen is currently the betting favorite to lead the league in INTs this season. Over his last five games, Allen threw seven interceptions.

This lines up well for the Patriots’ defense, one of the best in the NFL at forcing INTs. The Patriots’ 12 interceptions have their defense tied for fourth in the league in interceptions forced. 

Allen has six interceptions in seven games against New England in his career. Everything is lining up for the Pats’ defense to pick Allen off on Thursday night. At -170, I love the value here.

Parlay Odds: +850


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