NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Patriots vs. Vikings (Thanksgiving)
On Thanksgiving night, the Patriots and Vikings will square off in Minneapolis. This will be a game with major playoff implications, as the Vikings look to move up the NFC standings while the Patriots hope to hold onto their AFC Wild Card spot.
With a total on the game of 42.5 and a spread of Vikings -2.5, this should be a close, low-scoring game. Below is a three-leg parlay offered on Draftkings that has exceptional value and should be exciting enough to keep you awake post-Thanksgiving turkey consumption.
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Leg 1: Patriots +7.5 (-250)
On paper, the points the Patriots are getting on the road feels low. Minnesota is 8-2 with wins over some big-time opponents like the Dolphins and Bills. Kirk Cousins has been steady this year, and the Vikings have weapons all over their offense.
Despite the success they’ve had this year, the Vikings are one of the worst 8-2 teams in NFL history once you look deeper into their performance this year. Seven of their eight wins have been by one score – their only multi-score win was in Week 1 against the Packers. The Vikings also have two blowout losses against the Eagles and Cowboys.
The Patriots, on the other hand, sit at 6-4 and have been steady all year. They’ve won Mac Jones’ last three starts, holding opponents to a combined 23 points in those three games.
The Patriots have been consistent on offense and exceptional on defense. Their defense should match up well with the Vikings – they’re a top-five defense against opposing WRs. Given the Vikings’ reliance on Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, I won’t be surprised if they struggle to get points on the board Thursday night.
I’m taking an alternate line here to get a wider range of outcomes. I’ll be very surprised if the Patriots lose by more than seven points. This profiles as a low-scoring game, and they match up well with the Vikings. The Patriots will be in a good spot to play a close game on Thursday.
Leg 2: Adam Thielen U49.5 Receiving Yards (-145)
As mentioned earlier, the Patriots have an exceptional pass defense. They allow 10 catches for 135 yards per game to opposing WRs. Both of these marks rank top-five in the NFL. When Minnesota does target WRs, I expect them to look primarily for Justin Jefferson rather than Thielen. Thielen has only out-targeted Jefferson in one game this year and hasn’t eclipsed nine targets all season.
Thielen also does most of his work underneath and on short routes. Even if he does get some catches Thursday night, I don’t expect any big plays. Given the low total on the game and the Patriots’ strong suit on defense, I think Thielen will come in comfortably under 50 yards on Thursday.
Leg 3: TJ Hockenson Anytime TD (+245)
While it’s risky to play a Vikings TD with the Patriots +7.5 leg, the value this adds to the parlay is too good to pass up. The Patriots have allowed seven TDs in 10 games to the tight-end position this year (second most in the NFL). Given the elite defense the Pats play versus opposing WRs, I expect Hockenson to be a focal point for the Vikings on Thursday.
Hockenson has been great since joining the Vikings. He’s managed a 75-percent catch rate on 28 targets through his first three games with the club. He has six red-zone targets in three games, which is just one fewer than Justin Jefferson and more than every other Vikings player combined.
It’s obvious the Vikings want to get Hockenson the ball near the goal line. That plan will likely pay dividends against a Patriots’ defense that has struggled to cover TEs all year. Even with the Patriots poised to have a strong game, this play is a great value.
Parlay Odds: +750
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