NFL Thursday Night Football TD Scorer Picks: Falcons vs. Packers
Last week’s NFL Thursday Night Football TD scorer picks added to our season-long profits as we cashed anytime touchdown wagers at odds between +100 and +180. Obviously, it helped that the Lions-Bills matchup was a track meet with 72 combined points. This week’s Falcons-Packers tilt doesn’t project to be nearly as high-scoring, with a projected total of 43.5 points.
It will be interesting to see if Michael Penix Jr.’s first start of the season helps rejuvenate a lifeless Atlanta offense. But because this game is projected to be more of a defensive struggle, I’m limiting my wagers to just one first touchdown scorer and one anytime touchdown scorer play. Here are the best touchdown scorer picks for the Thursday Night Football contest between the Falcons and Packers.
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NFL Thursday Night Football TD Scorers Picks: Falcons vs. Packers
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bijan Robinson First Touchdown Scorer (+400)
Michael Penix Jr. is making his first start since November 16th of last season. But how fitting would it be for him to lead the Falcons on the game’s first touchdown drive, after the team didn’t run a play inside their opponent’s red zone through the first two games.
If I’m picking a Falcons player to score the game’s first touchdown, I’m excluding Kyle Pitts. The tight end saw only one target on 21 routes in Week 1, despite running the second-most routes on the team. Even though Atlanta’s pathetic offense is the biggest reason for its 0-2 start, Bijan Robinson still led all running backs with 135.2 scrimmage yards per game last season.
Penix also entered the season ranked 29th among 32 quarterbacks (minimum 250 attempts in 2025) with a 3.3% touchdown rate. That’s why I’m counting on Atlanta’s ground game to score if it is the first team to reach the end zone. This play also offers great value on a player with steep -165 odds on an anytime touchdown (62.26% implied probability).
Matthew Golden Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)
Green Bay’s wide receiver corps is already somewhat depleted after Jayden Reed suffered a gruesome neck injury last week. Matthew Golden is still looking for his first touchdown reception after being targeted 18 times through the first two weeks, including a whopping 12 targets in Week 1 against the Vikings, when rain wasn’t a factor, unlike in Week 2.
Golden is coming off a season where he had the fifth-highest expected points added (EPA) per target (minimum 40 targets) in 2025. In addition, his 65.9% catch rate in 2025 was second among rookie wide receivers.
Despite Golden, Reed and Christian Watson missing a combined 20 games last season, Green Bay’s wide receivers still finished a respectable 16th in receiving yards per game and 13th in receiving touchdowns. This is great value for the Packers’ passing game.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.