NFL Thursday Night Football TD Scorer Picks (Raiders vs. Broncos)
For the first time in three weeks, the NFL’s Thursday Night Football contest is between two division rivals. Oddsmakers do not expect a shootout in this matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos, as the projected total of 42.5 points is the fourth-lowest of any game on the Week 10 slate. Two of my three touchdown scorer picks back Broncos players, as Denver is a heavy 9.5-point favorite. But we are getting great value from oddsmakers on a Raiders skill position player to score a touchdown, and he rounds out my trio of picks. Let’s dive into our top NFL Thursday Night Football TD scorer picks.
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NFL Thursday Night Football TD Scorer Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Courtland Sutton Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150)
Denver’s two running backs, J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey, have anytime touchdown odds of -120 and +210, respectively. But these odds are not justified, as Dobbins has averaged 8.5 fantasy points per game over the last four games. Meanwhile, Harvey has 20.4 fantasy points per game in the last two games, but most of that damage has been done in the fourth quarter when the team has been in catch-up mode, as his four career receiving touchdowns have all come in the fourth quarters of games.
Harvey has only played 20+ snaps in two out of nine career games, so I am focusing more on Denver’s pass-catchers as anytime touchdown scorers.
Courtland Sutton had an 8-97-2 stat line in his last game against the Raiders last year. He has also scored at least one touchdown in three of the last six and four of the previous eight games against Las Vegas. Thus, oddsmakers should have likely made his anytime touchdown odds closer to +100, which means I will gladly take the extra value at +150.
Troy Franklin Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+180)
Before scoffing at my selection of a second straight Broncos wide receiver to score a touchdown, know that Las Vegas has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. That is why I am not looking at other players like Evan Engram, as the Raiders allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends, while Engram didn’t even have a catch in the team’s Week 9 win.
Troy Franklin has seen double-digit targets in two of the last three games and should be viewed as an excellent complement to Sutton after producing a 37-385-4 line on 64 targets this year.
Quarterback Bo Nix has multiple touchdown passes in three straight games and eight total in that span, so there should be plenty of red-zone volume to go around for all of Denver’s receivers.
Brock Bowers Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+180)
Raiders tight end Brock Bowers is coming off a 43.3 fantasy point performance last week, which is the most by any player in the NFL this season. He hauled in 12 of his 13 targets while scoring three touchdowns and totaling 133 scrimmage yards.
That was the most fantasy points scored in a game by a tight end since Darren Waller in 2020.
Bowers has missed three games but is still third on the team in targets, second in receiving yards and was targeted on 40% of routes last week. He should become an even bigger focal point in the passing game after the team traded wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. In addition, quarterback Geno Smith has been sacked 21 times this year, and the Broncos’ defense leads the league in sacks, so Smith should be looking for Bowers early and often as a short safety valve to elude pressure.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.