NFL Thursday Night Football TD Scorers Picks: Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
For the third consecutive week, we were profitable with our NFL Thursday Night Football TD scorer picks after cashing in on Harold Fannin Jr.’s +275 anytime touchdown prop in the Steelers-Browns matchup.
This week’s Buccaneers-Cowboys tilt would be a lot more enticing if Baker Mayfield were under center for Tampa Bay, but this is still a Cowboys defense that ranks 31st in defensive expected points added (EPA) and points allowed per drive. That is why I find value in a Buccaneers player’s anytime touchdown odds, while also adding a play on who will score the game’s first touchdown.
Here are the best touchdown scorer picks for Week 5’s Thursday Night Football contest between the Buccaneers and Cowboys.
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NFL Thursday Night Football TD Scorers Picks: Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
George Pickens First Touchdown Scorer (+800)
Even though Tampa Bay is off to its first 0-4 start since 2013, it has still been competitive while playing 10 straight one-score games, the longest streak of such games in team history.
A lot of the Buccaneers’ ability to hang in games lies in a strong run defense, which has opponents throwing the ball at the seventh-highest pass rate over expected. Dallas will likely push that even further in this contest, coming in with the third-highest pass rate over expected.
CeeDee Lamb is coming off a monster game with a 17/189/1 stat line on 21 targets. He hauled in seven of his catches for 79 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter alone, while finishing with the second-most receptions in a single game in Cowboys history. That leads me to believe that Todd Bowles’ squad will pay extra attention to Lamb early, which should free up George Pickens.
Pickens saw just three targets while Lamb went off last week. However, he proved useful as a deep threat with a 53-yard grab, and he still ranks among the top 20 wide receivers in overall usage. And despite Lamb’s heavy workload last week, it is Pickens who has the team’s highest target share against single-high looks.
Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+195)
It isn’t often that a team’s shortest anytime touchdown odds for its running back offer this much value. But that is how down oddsmakers are on the Buccaneers’ offense with Jalon Daniels under center.
All things considered, Tampa Bay didn’t play too far below expectations in Daniels’ first start, totaling fewer than five yards below its season average entering the week.
Bucky Irving still has a high floor, even though he is coming off a season-low in touches, as he accounted for two-thirds of the team’s running back touches. Yes, he did concede touchdowns to both Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker.
Dallas is a forgiving defense that has allowed four rushing touchdowns and ranks in the top 10 in most backfield attempts faced per game. Tucker seems to have a stranglehold on short-yardage situations, but Irving provides value as the team’s best pass-catching back.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.