NFL Week 1 Anytime TD Scorer Picks & Predictions (2025)
The NFL is finally back, and with it comes one of the most fun markets in all of sports gambling - anytime touchdowns. Throughout this season, I’ll be diving into every matchup to bring my best NFL Anytime TD scorer picks to the table.
I tend to avoid the more popular options with the shortest odds, as they offer diminished return on investment (ROI) over the course of a full season, instead favoring players with odds in excess of +200.
These weekly plays will vary in odds, so adjust your unit size accordingly. As always, shop around to find the best prices available in your markets. Without further ado, let’s kick things off with our picks for Week 1.
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Best NFL Week 1 Anytime TD Scorer Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders
Zach Ertz had a late-season renaissance in 2024, emerging as a real red-zone weapon to help propel the Commanders on their run down the stretch. Ertz reeled in six touchdowns over Washington's final seven regular-season games, tacking on another one in their massive upset win over Detroit in the playoffs.
Despite the recent trade of Brian Robinson Jr., there are still plenty of weapons to draw attention away from Ertz on this explosive Commanders offense, from Terry McLaurin to Deebo Samuel, and the dual-threat ability of Jayden Daniels. I'll take Ertz to be the beneficiary as the forgotten man and find the end zone at 2/1 odds in this opener that I think might be a closer game than most are anticipating.
Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAX) | +125
Brian Thomas Jr. has the shortest odds to score on my touchdown card this week, and for good reason. Thomas was absolutely sensational in his rookie campaign, hauling in the third-most receiving yards in the NFL and tied for sixth with 10 receiving touchdowns. What's even more impressive is that Trevor Lawrence only played in 10 games last season, meaning a significant portion of his production came with Mac Jones at quarterback.
Thomas’ situation will significantly improve this year with a healthy Lawrence under center and the hire of the offensive guru Liam Coen as his head coach. Coen had the Buccaneers firing on all cylinders last year, ranking as a top-five unit in terms of both points per game (PPG) and yards per game (YPG). Thomas figures to be a more dynamic version of the aging Mike Evans, who was still able to come down with 11 touchdowns of his own in 2024.
Thomas also has one of the best matchups on the board in Week 1, going against a pathetic Panthers defense, which surrendered the most points in the NFL last season and ranked 23rd in terms of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. I love Thomas to build on his success from last season by scoring in Week 1.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense | +850
With the lowest total on the board in Week 1 by a wide margin, why not take a shot on one of the NFL's most opportunistic defenses to create a scoring opportunity? The Steelers have ranked in the top five in takeaways the previous two seasons, and they'll begin this season with a healthy and very happy T.J. Watt after getting his bag this offseason. They were also able to flip a declining Minkah Fitzpatrick for Jalen Ramsey in the offseason, a move many believe to be a defensive upgrade.
That's bad news for newly acquired Jets starting quarterback Justin Fields, who ranked dead-last in the NFL in terms of quarterback turnover rate per play at 2.8% in his stint as the QB1 for the Bears. In a game that figures to be incredibly low scoring with questionable quarterback play on both sides, I'll take a shot with Pittsburgh's defense to score a touchdown over any of the other underwhelming offensive options on the board. Note that this play does not include the special teams option; I prefer to take just the defense for elevated odds, though I don't mind the D/ST combo for more outs at reduced odds.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots
Jakobi Meyers (WR – LV) | +220
Jakobi Meyers finds himself in an interesting situation entering 2025 as the top dog in a very depleted Raiders wide receiver room. Though he somewhat voiced his displeasure with the organization this offseason by requesting a trade, he recently clarified that he is happy in Las Vegas. His situation has also improved dramatically compared to previous seasons, with the addition of a capable starting quarterback in Geno Smith, as well as an experienced head coach in Pete Carroll and a potentially generational running back in Ashton Jeanty to add the threat of a running game to what has been a horrendous Raiders ground attack in recent seasons.
I can see Meyers profiling very similarly to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who received 137 targets from Smith last year en route to 1,100+ receiving yards despite the presence of DK Metcalf and two very capable running backs in Seattle. There's reason to believe the best is yet to come for Smith, as his completion percentage, touchdown-to-interception ratio and quarterback rating are all dramatically higher in his indoor performances compared to his outdoor ones. That is great news considering the Raiders are slated to play 12 dome games this season.
While Brock Bowers will undoubtedly be the top option in the passing game and Jeanty should command a large workload out of the backfield, I like these odds for a Meyers anytime touchdown to kick off what could be a career year for the Raiders’ No. 1 WR.
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints
Trey McBride (TE – ARI) | +185
There's no player in the NFL more due for touchdown regression than Trey McBride, who has found the end zone just six times over his three-year career despite developing into one of the more lethal pass-catching tight ends in the game.
It took McBride until Week 17 to find paydirt last season before scoring again in Week 18, which was still not enough to keep him from having the lowest touchdown per target ratio of any high-volume pass catcher in the league. McBride saw fewer than seven targets only five times last season, recording at least 70 receiving yards in eight games. That kind of volume and production, combined with McBride's raw talent, will eventually culminate in a monster touchdown season, which I think could be on the horizon in 2025.
I don't think Kyler Murray intends to wait until Week 17 to get McBride a touchdown this year. McBride’s low career touchdown rate is giving us nice odds to see him score in Week 1 against what figures to be a hapless Saints team.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Andrei Iosivas (WR – CIN) | +420
The Bengals finally ponied up to sign Tee Higgins to a long-term deal, solidifying perhaps the league's most formidable wide receiver tandem for the foreseeable future. Naturally, I'm avoiding their top two pass-catchers and turning instead to Bengals third-year wideout Andrei Iosivas to score in this game.
While Iosivas doesn't necessarily command a massive target share, he has proven to be a reliable red-zone target as a big-bodied receiver for Joe Burrow on a Bengals offense that has really been lacking any sort of tight end production in recent seasons. Iosivas found the end zone six times last season, including one against the same Browns team he will match up against this Sunday.
Head coach Zac Taylor decided to give his starting units some run this preseason to combat the dreadful starts that the Bengals have had in recent seasons, so I like them to be in an offensive rhythm in Week 1 against a Browns team that appears to be in complete disarray heading into the season.
Iosivas has earned the trust of Burrow in his first two NFL seasons and could find himself in some really advantageous matchups around the goal line all season long due to the attention commanded by Ja’Marr Chase and Higgins. This game could also get out of hand, potentially granting some extended opportunities to Iosivas in the second half. At greater than 4/1 odds, I think there is great value on Iosivas as an anytime touchdown scorer this Sunday.
Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones (QB – IND) | +220
Daniel Jones was named the Week 1 starter for Indianapolis, putting a hold on the Anthony Richardson experiment for the time being. The good news for the Colts is that, although Jones doesn't quite have the same tremendous arm strength as Richardson, their offensive scheme shouldn't look all that different with Jones under center.
Richardson recorded 10 rushing touchdowns in the 15 games he appeared in last season, including games he did not finish. It's not that big of a stretch to see Jones, who has totaled 15 rushing scores over the course of his own career, having similar success on the ground. Whether it be in the read-option game with Jonathan Taylor diverting the defense's attention, designed quarterback runs or pure scramble opportunities from Jones, I see his legs being a massive focal point for Shane Steichen and this Colts offense.
Richardson's anytime touchdown prop was much closer to even odds as a healthy starter, so getting better than 2/1 odds on a nearly identical profile in Jones is too good to pass up.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Former fourth overall pick Kyle Pitts is entering his fifth season in what has unequivocally been a disappointing start to his career, though there is some hope that Pitts returns to his rookie year form with some competent quarterback play from Michael Penix Jr.
Despite his lackluster 2024 performance, Pitts terrorized the Buccaneers’ defense for his best two performances of the season, reeling in seven catches for 88+ yards in each game with a breakout two-touchdown performance in Tampa Bay. Defending the tight end position was an all-around issue for the Buccaneers last year, as they ranked in the top 10 in terms of fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Penix has made it a point to emphasize that getting Pitts the ball is a priority for the Falcons this year, and I like Pitts to find the end zone in Week 1 for the second straight year on a Falcons offense that offers plenty of weapons to distract Tampa’s defense.
Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos
Bo Nix had a very strong rookie season, leading the Broncos to a playoff spot and seemingly pairing very nicely with head coach Sean Payton. Nix toted that ball last year much more frequently than you might remember, rushing for 430 yards and four scores on 92 carries at nearly 5.0 yards per carry.
While this Titans defense was actually pretty stout against the pass in 2024, ranking second-best in terms of passing yards allowed at 177 YPG, they ranked in the bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed per game at 133 YPG. They were also fairly susceptible to the quarterback scramble, allowing opposing quarterbacks to total six rushing touchdowns and 435 yards, which is nearly identical to Nix's 2024 marks.
I don't love the odds for J.K. Dobbins or rookie RJ Harvey to find the end zone this week, but I'm happy to take Nix at nearly 3/1 odds.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
George Kittle (TE – SF) | +175
George Kittle is coming off what was debatably the best season in his stellar career with the 49ers, catching 78 balls for 1,100+ yards and eight touchdowns despite only suiting up for 15 games. With Brandon Aiyuk beginning the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list and the departure of Deebo Samuel, Kittle finds himself as the focal point of the San Francisco passing game once again.
Kittle recorded his only two-touchdown performance of 2024 in his lone matchup against the Seahawks last season, which is nothing new to him, as his seven career scores against Seattle are tied for his most against any team in the league. With Christian McCaffrey popping up as questionable on the injury report on late Thursday night, Kittle could end up being the only viable offensive option for Purdy to rely upon in a pivotal season opener against a division rival. I love Kittle to find paydirt Week 1 against a Seahawks team he has dominated over the course of his career.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Jameson Williams (WR – DET) | +240
We finally saw the talent of Jameson Williams translate into big-time production in a dynamite 2024 Lions offense, as Williams recorded seven touchdowns and 1,000+ receiving yards. He recorded one rushing score as well, as he carried the ball 11 times on the ground over the course of the season. While he has yet to find the end zone against the Packers in his young career, he has averaged 18.7 yards per catch (YPC) on seven receptions in those matchups.
The Packers’ secondary finds itself in disarray to begin the season after the departure of Jaire Alexander, legitimately attempting to convert former wideout Bo Melton to cornerback. As good as the Lions’ offense was last year, I believe we're getting a buy-low opportunity here to begin 2025 due to the departure of Ben Johnson to the Bears. These odds are simply too long for one of the handful of players in the NFL who can truly blow the top off a defense and score from anywhere on the field. I'll take Williams to do just that against the Packers on Sunday.
Los Angeles Rams @ Houston Texans
Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU) | +500
Texans running back Dameon Pierce has experienced some severe regression since his rookie campaign, where he rushed for nearly 1,000 yards in just 13 games and looked as if he might lock down the Texans’ No. 1 RB spot for the foreseeable future. Coaching changes combined with the acquisition of Joe Mixon put a stop to that, to the point where Pierce received only 40 carries last season.
Pierce was still ruthlessly efficient, though, averaging 7.3 yards per carry (YPC) and matching his two touchdowns from the year prior. Mixon is out of the picture to begin the season, placing Pierce squarely at the No. 2 RB position behind the aging Nick Chubb, who is one season removed from recovering from his horrific leg injury. Add in the fact that there may be a little bit of a feel-good story at play to reward Pierce here, and these odds are outrageous. I find great value for Pierce to cash in on some goal-line opportunities against the Rams in Week 1.