NFL Week 1 Line Movement Analysis (2024)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 1 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| GB | PHI | -2 | -2 | 0 | 48.5 | 49.5 | 1 |
| NE | CIN | -9 | -8.5 | -0.5 | 42 | 41 | -1 |
| MIN | NYG | +1 | +1.5 | 0.5 | 41.5 | 41 | -0.5 |
| PIT | ATL | -3 | -3 | 0 | 42 | 42 | 0 |
| JAX | MIA | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 | 49 | 49 | 0 |
| CHI | GB | -3 | -3 | 0 | 44.5 | 45 | 0.5 |
| HOU | IND | +2 | +3 | 1 | 49 | 48.5 | -0.5 |
| AZ | BUF | -6 | -6.5 | 0.5 | 48 | 47 | -1 |
| CAR | NO | -4 | -4 | 0 | 40 | 41.5 | 1.5 |
| TEN | CHI | -4.5 | -3.5 | -1 | 42.5 | 44.5 | 2 |
| DEN | SEA | -5 | -6 | 1 | 42 | 41.5 | -0.5 |
| LV | LAC | -3.5 | -3 | -0.5 | 42.5 | 40.5 | -2 |
| DAL | CLE | -1.5 | -2.5 | 1 | 43 | 41 | -2 |
| WAS | TB | -3 | -3.5 | 0.5 | 42 | 42.5 | 0.5 |
| LAR | DET | -3.5 | -4.5 | 1 | 51 | 52 | 1 |
| NYJ | SF | -4 | -4.5 | 0.5 | 44 | 43.5 | -0.5 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 1 Spread Movement Analysis
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: +2 ?' +3
Week 1 spread movement has a lot to do with how the general public views a team’s offseason moves and what momentum they come into the season with from the preseason. There is arguably no team generating more buzz than the Houston Texans, who are coming off a season where they won a playoff game in C.J. Stroud’s Rookie of the Year campaign, and added Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to the offense. The Texans are the only team with three 700-plus yard receivers on their roster from a year ago, and even their defense should be much improved with the additions of Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry. With those two studs, the Texans became the second team all-time to add two players with 10-plus sacks from the previous season in the same offseason.
This line move was just one point, but it was a big point, as the spread now firmly lies on the key number of three.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: -4 ?' -4
Though this line ended up at its same starting point, that does not take into account how much movement there was throughout the week. Carolina was bet down as low as 3.5-point underdogs, but Saints backers came out in droves to scoop up that lower spread, and drove the line as high as -4.5. The case for Carolina support is the buzz surrounding Dave Canales as head coach, as the last two quarterbacks he coached (Geno Smith in 2022 and Baker Mayfield in 2023) had career-highs in completion percentage, passing yards, and passing touchdowns under his tutelage.
NFL Week 1 Total Movement Analysis
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears: 42.5 ?' 44.5
It is not hard to understand why this total rose two points throughout the week, as the public has been infatuated with Caleb Williams ever since the Bears took him with the No. 1 overall pick. Unlike most No. 1 picks who end up in bad situations (hence why the team drafted No. 1 overall in the first place), Williams is the first top-5 quarterback to play with two 1,200-yard wide receivers as a rookie (DJ Moore had 1,364 yards and Keenan Allen had 1,243 yards last year). In addition, the fact that Chicago appeared on HBO’s Hard Knocks certainly is key in influencing bettors.
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns: 43 ?' 41
Anytime a total drops this much in a home game involving the Browns, one must wonder if the movement is weather related. And while winds are projected to gust up to 15 mph, this movement is likely more due to the distractions Dallas had to deal with all off-season with the contract negotiations for Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. However, Cleveland also hung its hat on defense last year, as its 37 Team Total QBR was the worst by a 10-win team since the metric began in 2006.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.