NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday Night Football (2022)
Check out my top pick for Thursday Night Football: Bills vs. Rams.
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Check out our Bills at Rams matchup page.
- Kickoff: Thursday, Sept. 8, 2022, 8:20 pm ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium
- TV: NBC
Bills at Rams: Consensus Lines
Lines from our BettingPros odds page and as of Sept. 7.
- Spread: Bills -2.5
- Over/Under: 52
- Moneyline: Bills -135, Rams +114
Bills at Rams: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 7.
- Spread: Bills – 55% bets, 73% money
- Over/Under: Over – 74% bets, money data unavailable
- Moneyline: Rams – 38% bets, 39% money
Bills at Rams: Key Injuries
Buffalo Bills Injuries
- CB Tre’Davious White (knee, PUP)
Los Angeles Rams Injuries
- WR Van Jefferson (knee) – officially questionable, leaning doubtful
Buffalo Bills Injury Analysis
White is a top-10 (maybe top-five) cornerback. He rarely plays in the slot, but he possesses the talent to shadow and shut down perimeter receivers. For context: Compare his career numbers to those of Rams CB Jalen Ramsey (including postseason, per Pro Football Focus).
- Target Rate: White – 11.9%, Ramsey – 14.1%
- Reception Rate: White – 56.0%, Ramsey – 56.9%
- Yards per Coverage Snap: White – 0.85, Ramsey – 1.01
- Yards per Target: White – 7.14, Ramsey – 7.14
I’m not suggesting that White is as good as Ramsey: No one is. But the Bills are missing their top cover man — and after Ramsey he might be the NFL’s best corner. His absence will be felt.
Los Angeles Rams Injury Analysis
Jefferson last year was silently one of the league’s best No. 3 wide receivers with 50-802-6 receiving on 89 targets (9.0 yards per target) — and the 2020 second-rounder could be even better entering his third season. The dropoff from Jefferson to backup WRs Ben Skowronek and TuTu Atwell is significant.
Bills at Rams: Situational Spots
Buffalo Bills Situation
As I mention in my NFL schedule breakdown, the Bills start the year with a gauntlet of games: At Rams on Thursday Night Football to open the season, home vs. Titans on Monday Night Football, at Dolphins and Ravens, home vs. Steelers and at Chiefs for a Divisional Round rematch before getting the bye in Week 7. That’s two overlapping 3-of-4 away stretches with home games against feisty franchises, and not one of their six opponents is a bottom-feeding team (at least based on my preseason power ratings).
It’s the season opener vs. the Super Bowl champions, so the Bills probably aren’t looking ahead to the rest of the schedule — but they are consensus Super Bowl favorites at +600, and if they lose this game … and then some games shortly after that, it will be a story.
This contest is a treacherous first step on what looks like a difficult journey. The pressure is almost certainly on.
Los Angeles Rams Situation
This is the first of back-to-back season-opening home games for the defending champions. Life is good.
Bills at Rams: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Buffalo Bills Trends
- QB Josh Allen: 18-8-2 ATS (30.9% ROI) on road
- QB Josh Allen: 8-3 ATS (42.0% ROI) in primetime (including postseason)
- HC Sean McDermott: 29-19-3 ATS (16.6% ROI) outside division
Los Angeles Rams Trends
- HC Sean McVay: 12-8 ATS (17.2% ROI) as underdog
- HC Sean McVay: 15-9-1 ATS (20.3% ROI) in primetime (including postseason)
- HC Sean McVay: 8-2 ATS (56.8% ROI) in Weeks 1-2
- Super Bowl Champs: 10-5-1 ATS in Week 1 primetime
Bills at Rams: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Buffalo Bills Offense vs. Los Angeles Rams Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.091 | 4 | -0.025 | 9 | 5 |
| Total SR | 47.4% | 5 | 44.5% | 15 | 10 |
| Total DVOA | 9.7% | 10 | -8.5% | 5 | -5 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.165 | 8 | 0.028 | 12 | 4 |
| Dropback SR | 51.1% | 3 | 47.5% | 21 | 18 |
| Pass DVOA | 20.7% | 13 | -1.2% | 6 | -7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.5% | 2 | 7.6% | 8 | 6 |
| Rush EPA | -0.050 | 12 | -0.116 | 6 | -6 |
| Rush SR | 40.3% | 21 | 39.3% | 12 | -9 |
| Rush DVOA | 2.8% | 9 | -18.1% | 5 | -4 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.40 | 12 | 3.84 | 6 | -6 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 10 | 5.2 | 7 | -3 |
| Points per Game | 28.4 | 3 | 21.9 | 15 | 12 |
| Rd vs. Hm DVOA | 16.8% | 3 | -3.5% | 18 | 15 |
Buffalo Bills Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2019-21 data: Min. 600 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 600 pass attempts for AY/A.
2021: Josh Allen
- EPA + CPOE: 0.121 (No. 11)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.5 (No. 8)
- AY/A: 6.9 (No. 17)
- QBR: 60.7 (No. 6)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 4.17 (No. 5)
2019-21: Josh Allen
- EPA + CPOE: 0.126 (No. 14)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.8 (No. 7)
- AY/A: 7.4 (No. 16)
Career: Josh Allen
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 54.9
Los Angeles Rams Offense vs. Buffalo Bills Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.082 | 8 | -0.111 | 1 | -7 |
| Total SR | 46.6% | 9 | 40.2% | 2 | -7 |
| Total DVOA | 10.6% | 8 | -18.0% | 1 | -7 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.183 | 4 | -0.114 | 1 | -3 |
| Dropback SR | 50.2% | 9 | 41.9% | 2 | -7 |
| Pass DVOA | 26.6% | 7 | -23.0% | 1 | -6 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.2% | 7 | 7.6% | 7 | 0 |
| Rush EPA | -0.089 | 19 | -0.107 | 11 | -8 |
| Rush SR | 40.6% | 19 | 37.5% | 6 | -13 |
| Rush DVOA | -3.9% | 12 | -11.9% | 11 | -1 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.62 | 6 | 3.64 | 4 | -2 |
| Yards per Play | 6 | 3 | 4.6 | 1 | -2 |
| Points per Game | 27.1 | 7 | 17 | 1 | -6 |
| Hm vs. Rd DVOA | 14.7% | 8 | -17.5% | 4 | -4 |
Los Angeles Rams Quarterback Statistics
2021: Matthew Stafford
- EPA + CPOE: 0.129 (No. 6)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.5 (No. 7)
- AY/A: 8.2 (No. 5)
- QBR: 63.8 (No. 4)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 1.96 (No. 10)
2019-21: Matthew Stafford
- EPA + CPOE: 0.122 (No. 15)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 9.0 (No. 3)
- AY/A: 8.3 (No. 7)
Career: Matthew Stafford
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: 23.4
Key Matchup: Rams WRs vs. Bills CBs
The Bills are without their top two perimeter cover men from last season, given that No. 1 CB Tre’Davious White (knee) is out and No. 2 CB Levi Wallace left in free agency. They still have slot corner Taron Johnson, who is competent (6.84 yards per target for career) — but last year he played significantly worse after White’s season-ending injury, based on his average weekly PFF coverage grade.
- Weeks 1-12 (With White): 70.8
- Weeks 13-20 (Without White): 59.9
Without White locking down a third of the field on the perimeter, the Bills couldn’t give Johnson the same middle-of-the-field support with safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer in the second half of the season, and his play predictably dropped.
Now that the Bills are without White and Wallace, how will they use Hyde and Poyer to help their corners?
If they shade toward the sidelines, then Johnson will be left on his own vs. 2021 Offensive Player of the Year and All-Pro WR Cooper Kupp, who last year led the league with an obscene 191 targets, 145 receptions, 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns receiving, a 31.7% target share and 37 red-zone targets (per our Advanced Wide Receiver Stats Report). For his career, Kupp has 9.2 yards per target.
Johnson is mountainously outmatched against Kupp: There’s no way the Bills won’t give him safety help.
And that means their perimeter cornerbacks will be vulnerable against WR Allen Robinson.
Yeah, I’ve been low on Robinson throughout fantasy draft season.
But he has three 1,000-yard seasons, and now he’s catching passes from QB Matthew Stafford — easily the best passer of his career. Reports on Robinson have been glowing for the entirety of the preseason.
At corner against Robinson we’re likely to see Dane Jackson on one side and a rotation of rookies Kaiir Elam and Christian Benford on the other side.
Jackson — a 2020 seventh-rounder — started eight games in White’s stead last year. In not one of them did he have a PFF coverage grade of even 70. He’s scrappy, but he’s also average at best. And neither Elam (first-rounder) nor Benford (seventh-rounder) has played an NFL snap. As intriguing as they looked in the preseason (Elam – 5.0 yards per target; Benford – 4.5), that was just the preseason.
I expect Kupp and Robinson to be too much for Johnson, Jackson and the rookies.
Bet: Rams +2.5 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Rams +2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Rams -1.25
Limit: Rams +0.5
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