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NFL Week 1 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

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There are 13 games on the Sunday schedule in Week 1. Below I will list my favorite Same Game Parlay (SGP) for every single game played on Sunday. Before I get to that, a word (or several) of advice.

First and foremost, bet responsibly. SGPs are longshot bets by nature. As such, I try not to risk a significant percentage of my bankroll on them. I typically risk a quarter of a unit (0.25U) on each SGP I play. Find the ones you like the most from the selections below and go from there.

You should also always be shopping for the best price at multiple sportsbooks if possible. These prices will likely change in the hours leading to kickoff. If any of these drop below the +400 threshold that most books use for promos, you may have to adjust some of the individual lines accordingly.

Now that all of that is out of the way, let's get to the Week 1 NFL Same Game Parlays. And Boost Your NFL Betting Strategy with Our Same Game Parlay (SGP) Tool!

Best NFL Same Game Parlay Bets (Week 1)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons

Would-be Steelers starting quarterback Russell Wilson is questionable for this game due to a calf injury. I suspect this will have quite an impact on what we see from Pittsburgh offensively on Sunday.

We know new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith does not need any incentive to take the air out of the ball. But Wilson's potential absence could facilitate an even greater dependence on the run. Because of that, I am adding a few points to the game total and taking the under.

I am also picking Pittsburgh wide receiver George Pickens to go under 4.5 receptions. Justin Fields has only averaged 24.8 pass attempts per game in 38 career NFL starts. Smith brought fellow wideouts Van Jefferson and Scotty Miller from Atlanta to Pittsburgh this season. It would not surprise me if either or both siphoned targets from Pickens.

On the other side, the additions of offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and quarterback Kirk Cousins should boost Atlanta's passing game output. I expect another addition, wide receiver Darnell Mooney, to benefit on Sunday. Mooney's 4.38 speed should play very well in Robinson's offense, which features a lot of three-wide receiver looks.

Parlay Odds: +450 at BetRivers Sportsbook

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones are the respective signal-callers for the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants. These teams are likely to keep things close to the vest since the quarterbacks have not proven they can be trusted. I am expecting a relatively low-scoring affair in this game.

Aaron Jones has started 57 games over the last four seasons. He has had more than 10 receiving yards in 45 of them. Granted, his quarterback play was better in all of those games than it will be on Sunday. But I still think this line is way too low.

The bright spot for the Giants offensively should be first-round wide receiver Malik Nabers. I expect Brian Daboll to do everything possible to give his most explosive playmaker plenty of touches in this game. I do not necessarily trust the yardage because Minnesota would be wise to keep Nabers in front of them. But he should at least be able to secure a handful of grabs in his NFL debut.

Parlay Odds: +420 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins

We are getting pretty good odds on Tyreek Hill to score here. This game has a high implied total and should be very competitive. Hill is a threat to score a touchdown on any play and scored in six of his eight home games last year. Jacksonville added Ronald Darby to their secondary in the offseason. Darby grades out well in coverage but also has a reputation as a gambler. That can spell disaster when lining up across from a weapon like Hill.

Raheem Mostert may cede some more backfield touches to De'Von Achane in 2024. But I think rumors of the veteran's demise are a bit exaggerated, at least early on. Mostert had at least 40 rushing yards in his final 11 regular season games last season. The Jaguars have what projects to be a league-average defense, so I think this is a bar Mostert should be able to clear on Sunday.

Because of Miami's explosiveness offensively, Jacksonville will likely have to be a bit more aggressive with the ball in their hands. Miami has an implied team total of 26 points in this game. The Jaguars allowed at least 22 points nine times last year. Trevor Lawrence threw for at least 250 yards in six of those nine games. I expect that trend to continue in this matchup.

Parlay Odds: +440 at Caesars Sportsbook

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

The New England Patriots are projected to be among the worst teams in the NFL this season. They enter the year with one of the worst offenses in the league. Their defense, however, should be serviceable enough to avoid a blowout.

Cincinnati has some question marks revolving around the availability of wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Because of that, and since they should face little resistance from New England's offense, I expect the Bengals to be a bit less explosive than normal on Sunday. I am taking Cincinnati on the Moneyline as well as the under on 40.5 total points in this game.

I expect Hunter Henry to be heavily involved in this game. Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett loves dinking and dunking to his tight ends. In his last stint as an NFL starter, Brissett targeted David Njoku and Harrison Bryant a total of 85 times in 11 games. Add in some expected negative game script, and Henry should be able to catch a couple of passes on Sunday.  

Chase Brown should get some work in this game as a change-of-pace back. But all indications are that Zack Moss will start. That means Brown is unlikely to see the field much in the first quarter. I am taking the under on his first-quarter rushing yardage prop.

Parlay Odds: +448 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills

The Arizona Cardinals should be better on both sides of the ball this season. However, I think it's a bit early for them to compete with a powerhouse like the Buffalo Bills on the road. I believe Buffalo will be able to secure a Week 1 victory.

I also anticipate both starting running backs having solid games in this matchup. Arizona will want to keep Josh Allen off the field. The best way to do that is to feature James Conner against a Buffalo team that has lost several of its key defenders in recent years. Conner should get enough work to get at least 50 rushing yards. He surpassed this number in 10 out of 13 games last year despite Arizona posting a 4-9 record in those outings.  

James Cook surpassed this rushing + receiving yards line in six out of nine games after Joe Brady took over offensive coordinator duties midway through last season. With Stefon Diggs out of town, Cook should be able to rack up yards both on the ground and as a receiver out of the backfield. Arizona allowed an average of 151.9 all-purpose yards per game to opposing running backs last season.

Parlay Odds: +440 at BetRivers Sportsbook

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Two of last season's top NFL draft picks square off when Anthony Richardson and the Indianapolis Colts play host to C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. I give Houston the slight edge to win this game on the road and am taking their Moneyline as part of this SGP.

I also believe both starting quarterbacks will ball out. Stroud threw for multiple touchdowns in seven out of 10 games played indoors last year. That included both games versus the Colts. I like him to do so again on Sunday. Houston has a plethora of weapons at Stroud's disposal with the addition of veteran wideout Stefon Diggs.

Anthony Richardson is not the most polished passer, but this game has major shootout potential. Richardson scored twice on the ground against the Texans in just over a quarter of action last year. That should put Houston on high alert to keep Richardson in the pocket and force him to beat them through the air.

Parlay Odds: +428 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears

The Caleb Williams era begins in the Windy City when the Chicago take on the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Though much fanfare surrounds the overall number-one pick from April's NFL Draft, no rookie quarterback has won a Week 1 game since Sam Darnold back in 2018. Even if Williams breaks that trend, I anticipate a close ballgame. I am taking the Titans plus the 6.5 points.

I also like the under in this game. Each team's defense seems to be ahead of its respective offense as the 2024 season begins. Williams and Tennessee quarterback Will Levis (nine career NFL starts) will likely experience some growing pains as they continue to mature into potential franchise quarterbacks.

The last leg of this SGP is for Tony Pollard to record at least 10 receiving yards. Chicago allowed 59 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs last season. No other unit allowed more than 45.4. Levis targeted running backs on 23.4% of his pass attempts last year. Pollard should split time in the backfield with Tyjae Spears, but this number is still too low.

Parlay Odds: +430 at BetRivers Sportsbook

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

This SGP features some interesting pricing because of the reverse correlation aspect. We are taking the under on Panthers quarterback Bryce Young's passing yardage prop while also taking the over on Carolina receiver Diontae Johnson's receptions prop. That may seem counterintuitive. But if last year was any indication, it makes some sense.

Young went under this number in 11 games in his rookie campaign. Yet, Adam Thielen had at least a handful of grabs in six of those 11 games. Both of these legs hit in both matchups with the New Orleans Saints last season.

Thielen was Carolina's No. 1 receiver last year. The team now has Diontae Johnson, who is a better all-around talent. Even with Carolina running a new offense under new head coach Dave Canales, I expect Johnson to earn a healthy allotment of targets on the road in a dome against a superior opponent.

Because of the price we're getting on the reverse correlation, I can take the Saints plus six points. They are a four-point favorite in this game. If you prefer, you can lay the four points with New Orleans and reduce Johnson's receptions threshold to 4+.

Parlay Odds: +423 at Caesars Sportsbook

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

The Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers face off in a matchup of AFC West foes. Jim Harbaugh makes his much-anticipated return to the NFL on the sidelines for the Chargers. Antonio Pierce has shed the interim head coach label for Las Vegas.

Both coaches want to play good defense and establish the run. Vegas sees this as a relatively close and low-scoring affair. I am taking both the under on the game total and the Chargers on the Moneyline. Well, sort of.

The BetMGM SGP builder allowed me to take the Chargers at +0.5 points rather than the Moneyline. That means the leg would win in the event of a tie. I built the same SGP on ESPN Bet and had to use the traditional Moneyline, so I am playing this on BetMGM.

Though I expect both teams to play a conservative style, I could not resist adding Justin Herbert's alternate yardage prop. I just think 200 yards is too low. Herbert has cleared this number in 55 out of 62 career games, including 10 out of 13 last year.

Parlay Odds: +425 at BetMGM

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Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

I mentioned in my writeup of the Tennessee-Chicago SGP that no rookie quarterback has won in Week 1 since 2018. I would not be surprised if that changed on Sunday. However, I would be surprised if Bo Nix were the one to pull the trick.

The Seattle Seahawks have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. They are a six-point favorite against Nix and the Denver Broncos. I do not mind that number, but I was able to reduce it to -4 for this SGP.

Denver can only trend upward after a historically bad run defense last season. Still, this is a below-average unit. Kenneth Walker has recorded 10+ carries in 22 games since joining the NFL two years ago. He has scored 18 touchdowns in those 22 games. That includes 13 scores in 14 Seahawks victories. I like the correlation between a Seattle win and a Walker touchdown.

On the other side of the field is Jaleel McLaughlin. Sean Payton's offense likes to target running backs out of the backfield. It would also behoove him to give Nix some easy throws. Between those factors and an expected negative game script, I like McLaughlin to exceed 15 receiving yards in this game.

Parlay Odds: +420 at ESPN Bet

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels will be the third rookie from this year's draft class to start for his team in Week 1. This is a situation similar to Nix where I think it is a lot to ask for him to win his NFL debut in a hostile environment against a better overall team. Give me Tampa Bay on the Moneyline.

Washington's pass defense was a major Achilles' heel last year. They return only four starters, and I expect some growing pains, especially in coverage. Tampa Bay has reinserted Chris Godwin into the slot this year. That should boost his production after a relatively quiet 2023 season. I like him to go over his receiving yardage prop.

Chase McLaughlin made at least two field goals in eight out of nine Buccaneers victories a season ago. I expect Washington to play a lot of base defense early this year until they can form an identity. That should lead to lots of long drives that result in field goals.

Finally, I am taking Austin Ekeler to catch at least two passes from Daniels in this game. The former Charger should be a popular safety valve for the rookie, as well as a pass-catching option in hurry-up and two-minute situations.

Parlay Odds: +410 at Caesars Sportsbook

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

This SGP is perhaps a bit simplistic, but I was just happy to be able to cross the +400 threshold with it. This is not possible at several other prominent sportsbooks. If you do not have access to Fanatics Sportsbook, you can also find it on Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook. However, you are going to have to reduce the passing yardage totals for both quarterbacks to do so.

Both Cleveland and Dallas ranked in the top five in the NFL last season in passing yards allowed per game. The Cowboys had a much worse passing offense on the road last season. Dak Prescott averaged 1.56 passing touchdowns and 227 yards on the road last year. He averaged 2.75 touchdowns and 309 passing yards at home. I believe he will struggle in Week 1 against a very tough Browns defense.

Deshaun Watson has struggled since joining Cleveland two seasons ago. He has only surpassed this passing yardage total four times in 11 full games as a member of the Browns. He has only thrown 14 touchdowns in those 11 contests. I am fading both he and Prescott in this matchup.

Parlay Odds: +430 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions

My final SGP for Sunday's NFL Week 1 slate is for the Sunday night matchup between the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams. This is a rematch of a Lions 24-23 playoff win in January. I like the Lions to win the sequel on Sunday as well.

Detroit bolstered their pass defense in the offseason, but it remains a relative weakness. Stafford threw for 367 yards in the playoff loss back in January. This game will be played in a dome and has the highest implied total on the Week 1 schedule. Stafford should be throwing the ball all over Ford Field in this game.

One pivot from last year's meeting that I anticipate is an increased role for Detroit wide receiver Jameson Williams. Williams should see added reps with Josh Reynolds no longer in the fold. I also expect a leap after his sophomore campaign was hampered early by a five-game suspension. This is a positive matchup against a Rams team that allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers in 2023.

Parlay Odds: +488 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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