NFL Week 1 Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Sunday Night Football (2022)
The 2022 NFL season is finally here after months of anticipation. There’s a sense of comfortable familiarity that comes with the beginning of a new NFL season — Week 1 always feels like riding an old bike. As we get back into our routines of setting fantasy lineups, meticulously researching every game and scheduling our favorite game snacks to be delivered right at the opening kickoff of the early slate, there’s one NFL tradition I’m particularly excited about — crafting a Sunday Night Football parlay to push my luck on my winnings (or cover my losses) from the rest of the day.
The NFL has gifted us with a great Sunday Night Football showdown in Week 1. The Dallas Cowboys are hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a rematch of last year’s thrilling season opener. This will be a showdown of two top NFC contenders — both these teams are favored to win their respective divisions. Both teams are coming off disappointing home playoff losses last season and will be looking to start 2022 on the right note.
When putting a good same-game parlay together, it’s important to start by coming up with a thesis for the game (Who will win? Will the game be close? Will the total go over or under?) and only add legs to the parlay that support this thesis. The books expect this to be a relatively close, high-scoring game — Tampa Bay is currently favored by 2.5 points (-140 ML), while the total sits at 50.5.
Given the relatively tight spread on the game, I’m inclined to side with the Bucs. Dallas’ defense was one of the best against the pass last year, largely to their fantastic pass rush. The Cowboys posted a 27.6% pressure rate in 2021, good for fourth in the NFL. This strength won’t do them much good against Tom Brady, however. Brady is notoriously one of the most effective quick-throw QBs in NFL history. On dropbacks under 2.5 seconds in 2021, Brady completed 74.3% of his passes for 34 TDs and six INTs, good for a 110.5 QB rating. Brady should have no problem putting up his usual huge stat line against the Cowboys.
The Cowboys’ defense was also less-than-stellar in the red zone last year. Dallas allowed TDs on 61.7% of red zone drives last season, putting them just ahead of a bottom-10 ranking. This is another part of the field where the advantage will be on Tampa’s side. In 2021, Tom Brady completed 60.8% of his red zone pass attempts for 32 TDs — both these marks are 2nd among QBs with at least five red zone pass attempts per game.
Brady was especially effective when targeting star WR Mike Evans in the red zone. On 18 red zone targets, Evans hauled in 12 receptions — nine of which went for a TD. Evans should be even more of a focal point for the Bucs’ red zone offense in 2022, as the retirement of Rob Gronkowski means that nearly 10% of Brady’s red zone targets will need a new recipient. This game will be a prime spot for Evans to get into the end zone, especially with Trevon Diggs in man coverage against him.
On the other side of the ball, I expect Dallas to have trouble with the Tampa Bay pass rush. The Cowboys’ identity over the last 5-10 years has been a dominant offensive line that boosts the offensive unit as a whole. In 2022, I expect this to change. Dallas will be without both of last year’s starting OTs on Sunday, with Tyron Smith injured and La’el Collins playing in Cincinnati this season. Right guard Zack Martin is still a premier player, but the rest of the Cowboys’ line is largely inexperienced and is no longer the strength of this team.
This is going to cause some real issues against a Tampa Bay defense that blitzed on 40.8% of plays in 2021 — the highest blitz rate in the NFL. This emphasis on pressuring the QB led to the Bucs having the fourth shortest Average Depth of Target (ADoT) (7.2 yards) in the NFL last season. I expect Dak Prescott to be under pressure all day, and to throw quick, conservative passes rather than waiting for things to develop downfield.
This bodes very well for Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz. Last year, Schultz had the shortest ADoT (7.0 yards) of any non-RB on the Cowboys by a significant margin. For context, Cedrick Wilson owned the second shortest ADoT for any Cowboys receiver targeted at least two times a game at 10 yards.
It’s obvious that when Dak needs to get rid of the ball quickly, Schultz is his guy. I feel great about playing Schultz props this week, as I expect Dak to force the ball out quickly all night against the blitz-heavy Bucs’ defense.
My Play (+475 on BetMGM)
- Buccaneers ML
- Mike Evans Anytime TD
- Tom Brady 2+ Pass TD
- Dalton Schultz 55+ Rec Yds
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