NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (Dolphins vs. Rams)

Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 10 from BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 10’s Monday Night Football. In this solo MNF edition, we’re laser-focused on the highly anticipated matchups as we close out the mid-point of the NFL regular season. From expert insights on the spread and total to can’t-miss player props, I’ll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to kick off your week.

Get ready, folks-it’s time to place those BETS. Let’s dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football.

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Monday Night Primer

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams

Sides:

• The Dolphins have lost 10 of their last 11 games.
• Miami has failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
• Miami is below 25 percent ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has been 2-8 overall since 2023. 4-9 as an underdog in their last 13 applicable games.
• Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted to their old ways during their three-game losing streak. In their Week 5 and Week 7 wins against the Patriots/Colts, they came back from first-half deficits.
• The Dolphins have lost their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record.
• The Dolphins have lost 14 of their last 15 games as underdogs.
• The Dolphins have won 20 of their last 27 home games.
• Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dolphins have covered the spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Rams have failed to cover the spread in five of their last eight games.
• The Rams 2023 starters are 3-10 as underdogs straight up. 2-4 as underdogs this season (3-3 ATS) after their massive wins against the 49ers and the Vikings.
• The favorites have won 17 of the Rams’ last 19 games.
• The Rams have won seven of their last eight home games.
• In each of the Rams’ last four home games, their opponents have scored first.

Totals:

• Per DraftKings Sportsbook, seven of the Dolphins' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Miami is 2-2 toward the over at home this season (Over 42 points per game).
• Five of the Dolphins’ last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Eight of the Rams’ last 14 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
• The Rams are 11-10 toward the O/U in their last 21 games.
• Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only six times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense. They allowed over 300 yards of offense to the Raiders in Week 7.

Overall:

It's the same story with Miami as it always is. They beat bad teams, but can't beat any good teams. It's why they have always been terrible as underdogs straight up and against the spread. Last week, they finally covered against Buffalo, but I am seriously questioning whether they can put on a repeat performance.

Meanwhile, the Rams are the exact team to bet on WHEN they are favored.

In Week 9, I said the following: "Simply put, the Rams win when they are favorites, and the Seahawks lose as underdogs."

Replace Seahawks with Dolphins, and you can find my lean. The trends say Rams -2.5.

From a specific matchup point of view, we have to acknowledge how much better the Rams are offensively when they are healthy. They have been 3-0 the last three weeks with their top guys back, averaging north of 25 points per game.

So, despite what the season-long number might suggest this being a "tough" matchup for Matthew Stafford and company, I don't see it that way. Miami has had a pretty soft schedule of QBs in the first half of the season.

The last two weeks they have allowed 29 points per game and nearly 400 yards of total offense. The Rams will be able to move the ball through the air and on the ground.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Dolphins’ defense has allowed the most yards after contact per carry (4.1) and the most first downs over expected allowed (+11) on designed rushes this season.

The Dolphins have also allowed the 2nd-highest rate of 10+ yard rushes in the league this season (14.4%).

But L.A. isn't the only team that will find offensive success. So will the Dolphins.

According to Next Gen Stats, Tua Tagovailoa leads the league in quick throw rate, taking less than 2.5 seconds to throw on 57.8% of his pass attempts. Tua averages 2.39 seconds to throw, the quickest time to throw in the league by a wide margin; the difference between Tua and the second quickest time to throw (Andy Dalton, 2.55 seconds) is the same as the difference between the 2nd and 13th-quickest (Bryce Young, 2.71 seconds). The Rams have allowed the 2nd-most yards per attempt and 6th-most EPA per dropback on throws under 2.5 seconds this season.

Tua Tagovailoa has been pressured on a league-low 20.3% of his dropbacks this season due in part to his league-quickest time to throw of 2.39 seconds. However, Tagovailoa has also faced the lowest pressure rate on plays that take over 2.5 seconds (33.3%).

Ergo, this Dolphins’ passing game should be able to hold up and be effective against the Rams’ pass rush on both short, quick passes and longer ones.

The Rams are 31st in EPA/attempt against downfield throws.

The Rams defense has also faced the 4th-highest run rate over expected (+8.7%) this season. Opposing offenses have generated the 8th-highest success rate (43.8%) on designed rushes against the Rams (Next Gen Stats).

This game has a high total, but I think it lives up to the billing. These are too progressive offenses that have all their key pieces back at full strength. Three of the last four games these teams have played in the last two weeks have surpassed 50 points (3-1 O/U), with all four games hitting at least a 46-point total.

Monday night, we are getting points.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Rams and Dolphins rank first and second, respectively, in both motion rate and motion at snap rate. The Rams have been much more successful when using motion than when not, generating the 2nd-largest positive difference in success rate with and without motion.

Props:

Every RB that is used in the passing game the Rams have faced this season has gone over their prop with all but two going for at least 30 receiving yards.

The Rams' defense has allowed breakout games to Jameson Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jauan Jennings, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. All those players went for 120-plus receiving yards. Los Angeles is the worst team in the NFL against the pass, allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt.

The Rams against No. 2 WRs this season:  5th in yards allowed, 6th in targets allowed, and 7th worst in DVOA. If Miami is ever going to open up its offense, it will be in this matchup.

In games Tua Tagovailoa has started this season (Weeks 1, 2, 8, & 9), the Dolphins receiving corps has generated the 3rd-most YAC per reception in the league (7.1) and four plays with 20 or more yards after the catch (Next Gen Stats).

Ladder bet for Jaylen Waddle? I bet it. You can, too. Follow me on the BettingPros App here.

Waddle is over 42.5 receiving yards in two of his three full games played with Tagovailoa this season. He was over this number in 12/15 games all of 2023.

He is getting to 50 receiving yards easily in this matchup, and I think he is set for so much more.

Tight end Davis Allen had three red zone targets last week for the Rams. Allen ran a route on 43% of dropbacks, more than Colby Parkinson's 41%. Allen also played the majority of TE snaps at 55% to Parkinson's 42%. In a wild shootout I like the long-shot odds on this overlooked Rams tight end. LA TEs have combined for 10 red zone targets this season with zero TDs. Regression is coming.

My Picks:

• Over 49
• Rams -2.5
• Jaylen Waddle OVER 42.5 receiving yards
• Davis Allen anytime TD (+1400)