NFL Week 10 Picks & Predictions: Dolphins vs. Browns (2022)
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
Week 9 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-5-1 (+2.5 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 0-0 (used Week 9 as my “skip weekâ€)
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 61-48-2 (+7.21 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 22-18
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Week 10 ATS Bet Breakdowns: Dolphins vs. Browns
Check out our Browns at Dolphins matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: CBS
Browns at Dolphins: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Dolphins -3.5
- Over/Under: 48.5
- Moneyline: Dolphins -186, Browns +155
Browns at Dolphins: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 9.
- Spread: Browns – 43% bets, 76% money
- Over/Under: Over – 78% bets, 87% money
- Moneyline: Browns – 22% bets, 80% money
Browns at Dolphins: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Browns ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 4-4 (-4.3% ROI)
- ML: 3-5 (-24.9% ROI)
Dolphins ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 4-5 (-14.6% ROI)
- ML: 6-3 (24.5% ROI)
Browns at Dolphins: Notable Trend
- Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa: 10-4 ATS (36.8% ROI) at home
Browns at Dolphins: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Browns Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.083 | 7 | 0.067 | 25 | 18 |
| Total SR | 46.2% | 12 | 46.2% | 25 | 13 |
| Total DVOA | 16.2% | 5 | 10.1% | 27 | 22 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.071 | 14 | 0.152 | 29 | 15 |
| Dropback SR | 45.3% | 18 | 50.5% | 28 | 10 |
| Pass DVOA | 22.5% | 8 | 24.2% | 31 | 23 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.5% | 13 | 5.3% | 26 | 13 |
| Rush EPA | 0.099 | 1 | -0.086 | 9 | 8 |
| Rush SR | 47.2% | 3 | 38.3% | 6 | 3 |
| Rush DVOA | 15.9% | 2 | -10.4% | 7 | 5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.80 | 7 | 3.98 | 4 | -3 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 10 | 5.8 | 24 | 14 |
| Points per Game | 25 | 7 | 24.9 | 24 | 17 |
Dolphins Offense vs. Browns Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.103 | 4 | 0.085 | 28 | 24 |
| Total SR | 46.4% | 10 | 44.3% | 17 | 7 |
| Total DVOA | 21.9% | 2 | 7.6% | 24 | 22 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.217 | 3 | 0.061 | 16 | 13 |
| Dropback SR | 50.1% | 6 | 44.6% | 12 | 6 |
| Pass DVOA | 49.2% | 1 | 8.6% | 18 | 17 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.8% | 8 | 7.8% | 14 | 6 |
| Rush EPA | -0.116 | 28 | 0.120 | 32 | 4 |
| Rush SR | 39.3% | 22 | 43.9% | 25 | 3 |
| Rush DVOA | -6.3% | 21 | 6.5% | 30 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.24 | 22 | 4.79 | 27 | 5 |
| Yards per Play | 6.3 | 2 | 5.6 | 19 | 17 |
| Points per Game | 23.7 | 10 | 24.9 | 24 | 14 |
Browns at Dolphins: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jacoby Brissett
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.112 | 8 |
| AY/A | 7 | 14 |
| QBR | 61.5 | 7 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.3 | 20 |
Career: Jacoby Brissett
- AY/A: 6.5
- QB Elo per Game: -29.6
2022: Tua Tagovailoa
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.219 | 1 |
| AY/A | 9.9 | 1 |
| QBR | 80.2 | 1 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.3 | 7 |
Career: Tua Tagovailoa
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: 13.5
Key Matchup: Dolphins Rush Defense vs. Browns Rush Offense
The Browns offense is built on their rushing attack, which is one of the best in the league. The problem is that the Dolphins are top-10 against the run.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | 0.099 | 1 | -0.086 | 9 | 8 |
| Rush SR | 0.472 | 3 | 0.383 | 6 | 3 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.159 | 2 | -0.104 | 7 | 5 |
DTs Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler both have strong PFF run defense grades (71.3 and 79.8 respectively), and the Browns could be without RG Wyatt Teller (calf), who hasn’t played since leaving Week 6 early with an injury.
If the Browns can’t run the ball with their usual success, they will struggle to sustain drives, score points and keep the explosive Dolphins offense on the sideline.
Best Line: Dolphins -3.5 (-105, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Dolphins -3.5 (-105)
Personal Projection: Dolphins -5
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