NFL Week 10 Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2024)
What a big, bountiful menu of bets we have this week. We're fading a backup quarterback and a geezer wide receiver, and we're endorsing a whole bunch of running backs.
Before we get to this week's selections, a quick recap of Week 9 …
The wins: Jahmyr Gibbs over 64.5 rushing yards, Khalil Shakir under 51.5 receiving yards, Cedric Tillman over 47.5 receiving yards
The losses: Jayden Daniels over 228.5 passing yards, J.K. Dobbins under 71.5 rushing yards, Taysom Hill over 20.5 rushing yards, Malik Nabers over 68.5 receiving yards, A.J. Brown over 76.5 receiving yards
- Last week: 3-5
- Season record: 47-45
Fitz’s Favorite Week 10 Bets
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday, Nov. 7.
Sam Darnold OVER 245.5 passing yards
Darnold has been terrific lately, and he gets a gem of a matchup in Week 10. He'll be up against a Jaguars pass defense that has been a sieve all year.
Jacksonville has a league-worst opponent passer rating of 113.4. Opponents are completing 70.7% of their throws against the Jags and are averaging 8.2 yards per attempt and 278.0 passing yards per game.
Darnold is averaging 263.0 passing yards over his last three games and has been remarkably efficient over that stretch, completing 79.1% of his throws and averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt. Tight end T.J. Hockenson's return from a knee injury has added to Darnold's pass-catching arsenal.
The biggest concern here is that the Jaguars can't keep up with the Vikings, and Darnold doesn't end up with enough passing volume to hit this number. With a setup this good, I'm willing to take that risk.
Baker Mayfield UNDER 243.5 passing yards
As good as Mayfield has been this season, this number seems way too tall, considering how little firepower the Buccaneers have at wide receiver. Chris Godwin is out for the season with an ankle injury. Mike Evans is out with a hamstring injury. Rookie WR Jalen McMillan is questionable with a hamstring injury.
After Godwin and Evans went down in Week 7, Mayfield managed to throw for 330 yards against the Falcons in Week 8. But against the Chiefs in Week 9, Mayfield threw for 200 yards and averaged a modest 6.5 yards per attempt.
With his depleted weaponry, I think Mayfield could struggle against a 49ers defense that's giving up 220.5 passing yards per game and has the fourth-best opponent passer rating in the league (78.9%).
Justin Herbert OVER 224.5 passing yards
The Chargers had one of the most conservative offenses in the league over the first four weeks of the season, but Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman has loosened the reins on Herbert.
Over his first four games of 2024, Herbert averaged 144.5 passing yards. Over his last four games, he's averaged 286.8 passing yards. Herbert averaged just 22.8 pass attempts over those first four games; he's averaged 33.0 pass attempts over the last four. Herbert is also challenging defenses downfield. He's averaging 8.0 intended air yards per pass attempt, according to Pro Football Reference — the highest number of his career.
I think Herbert is a good percentage play to clear this number against a Titans pass defense that has been without stud CB L'Jarius Sneed, who's dealing with a quad injury.
Cooper Rush UNDER 210.5 passing yards
This seems like a high bar for a backup quarterback facing a hot pass defense.
Rush will be starting in place of Dak Prescott, who's going to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. Rush hasn't started a game for the Cowboys since 2022. In relief of Prescott last week against the Falcons, Rush completed 13-of-25 passes for 125 yards.
The rusty Rush faces a daunting matchup against a Philadelphia pass defense that's clamped down of late. The Eagles held Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence to 169 passing yards and 5.5 yards per attempt last week. In Week 8, the Philly D held Cincinnati's Joe Burrow to 234 passing yards and 6.3 yards per attempt. In Week 7, the Eagles stuffed the Giants' Daniel Jones into a locker, sacking him seven times and holding him to 99 passing yards and just 4.7 yards per attempt.
I don't think Rush gets anywhere close to 210.5 passing yards this week.
Tyrone Tracy OVER 73.5 rushing yards
The Giants' rookie sensation has been ... well, sensational. Tracy has supplanted Devin Singletary as the Giants' lead back and has had 16 or more carries in four of his last five games. Singletary is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and has gone over the 100-yard rushing mark in two of his last five games.
Tracy has a pillowy-soft matchup against the Panthers, who have the worst run defense in the league. Carolina is yielding 132.9 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry to running backs. The Panthers also have an extreme run-funnel defense, with opponents running against the Panthers on 52.9% of their offensive snaps.
Expect the Giants to hammer away at the Panthers on the ground. And expect a big day from Tracy.
Bijan Robinson OVER 70.5 rushing yards
This number seems way too low for one of the best running backs in the league against a bad run defense.
Bijan has cleared this number in three of his last four games, averaging 17.0 carries and 86.8 rushing yards a game over that stretch. He'll go up against a Saints’ run defense that ranks 31st in DVOA. New Orleans is giving up 106.4 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry to RBs.
Drake Maye OVER 29.5 rushing yards
Maye has cleared this number in all three of the games he's started and finished this year, averaging 50.3 rushing yards in those contests. Maye was an aggressive runner during his college career at North Carolina, averaging 10.1 carries a game during his two years as a starter for the Tar Heels. Let's keep hammering the overs on Maye's rushing props.
Najee Harris OVER 66.5 rushing yards
The Steelers love to run the ball, and their lead RB gets a favorable matchup on Sunday.
Harris faces a Washington run defense that ranks 26th in DVOA and has been reeling from the loss of stud DT Jonathan Allen to a torn pec. The Bears' D'Andre Swift had 18 carries for 129 yards against the Commanders two weeks ago, and Giants RBs Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary combined for 99 rushing yards against Washington last week.
Harris is averaging 17.0 carries and 74.0 rushing yards per game this season. He's been on a heater lately, with more than 100 rushing yards in three consecutive games. The Steelers are all about the ground game, running the ball on 52.7% of their offensive snaps — the second-highest rushing rate in the league behind only the Eagles. Harris should grind his way to an over here.
Bucky Irving OVER 34.5 rushing yards
Irving has topped this number in 6-of-9 games this season. The three games in which he failed to hit this number were against the Lions, Ravens and Chiefs — three of the best run defenses in the league.
The rookie from Oregon has had at least seven carries in every game this season, and he's averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Irving will be facing a so-so San Francisco run defense that ranks 19th in DVOA.
Alvin Kamara OVER 39.5 receiving yards
The Saints have been decimated by injuries to their wide receivers, necessitating a big role for Kamara in the passing game. WR Rashid Shaheed is out for the year with a torn meniscus, and Chris Olave is out for at least a week with a concussion.
Over the last two weeks, Kamara has 12 catches for 115 yards on 20 targets. Over his last six games, Kamara is averaging 8.7 targets, 6.0 catches and 39.2 receiving yards. He should be able to clear this number against a Falcons defense that has allowed the fourth-most receptions to RBs.
Keenan Allen UNDER 41.5 receiving yards
This number gives the 32-year-old Allen a great deal of respect, but there's little reason to think he can top it. Allen has produced fewer than 42 receiving yards in all six games he's played this year. He's averaging 32.8 receiving yards per game and just 4.7 yards per target.
Bears QB Caleb Williams has averaged 174 passing yards per game over the last two weeks since the Bears emerged from their Week 7 bye. Allen has to share targets with WRs D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze and with TE Cole Kmet.
The headwinds for Allen seem too fierce for him to reach this number.
George Kittle OVER 62.5 receiving yards
Kittle has cleared this number in three of his last four games. In the one game during that stretch where he missed, he finished with 58 yards, just a few yards shy. For the season, Kittle is averaging 5.7 catches and 71.9 receiving yards per game.
The veteran tight end gets a juicy Week 10 matchup against a Buccaneers defense that has given up the third-most receptions and second-most receiving yards to TEs.
Joshua Palmer OVER 27.5 receiving yards
Palmer probably only needs a couple of catches to win this bet. He's averaging 18.0 yards per catch for the season and 23.6 yards per catch over his last four games.
Palmer has had at least two receptions in all seven games he's played this season, and he's cleared this number in five consecutive games. I think he makes it six straight against the Titans.
Sam LaPorta UNDER 34.5 receiving yards
LaPorta's 2024 season seems like a massive disappointment compared with his triumphant rookie season of 2023. He had 86 catches for 889 yards last season. This year, he's on pace for 47 catches and 638 yards.
The crazy thing is that LaPorta is actually overachieving this year. As a rookie, LaPorta caught 71.7% of his targets. This year, his catch rate is 84.6%. LaPorta averaged 7.4 yards per target last season. This season, he's averaging 11.5 yards per target.
The glaring issue is that LaPorta is averaging only 3.3 targets per game in 2024. His target outlook gets no better this week with WR Jameson Williams returning from a two-game suspension.
LaPorta also has a tough matchup against Houston. The Texans have allowed a league-low 24 catches and 181 receiving yards to TEs. Fade LaPorta.
Jaylen Waddle OVER 44.5 receiving yards
Take advantage of this absurdly low number. Sure, Waddle is averaging only 38.8 receiving yards per game this season. But the Miami passing game fell apart when QB Tua Tagovailoa missed four games with a concussion. Two of the Dolphins' other four games were against the Bills, who have one of the lowest WR target rates in the league.
Don't forget how good Waddle is. He was tops among all college receivers in yards per route run since 2020. He was the sixth overall draft pick in 2021. And Waddle has topped 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first three NFL seasons.
Waddle gets a friendly Monday night matchup against the Rams, whose pass defense ranks 26th in DVOA.