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NFL Week 11 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

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Introducing the Week 11 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 11 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 11 games on Sunday. Note that the Sunday night and Monday night games will be getting their own dedicated articles.

NFL Week 11 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • Broncos -2
  • Browns ML (-120)

Top Underdogs:

  • Raiders +7.5
  • Titans +6
  • Steelers +3
  • Colts +4
  • Chiefs ML (+110)

Top Totals:

  • NE/LAR over 43.5
  • DET/JAC over 47

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Sides:

  • The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last six games as favorites.
  • Chicago is 6-4-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.
  • The Bears have won eight of their last nine home games.
  • The Bears have lost nine of their last 10 road games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last nine games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in 11 of the Bears' last 14 games.
  • The Bears are 9-7-1 ATS and 9-8 straight up in their last 17 games.
  • In each of the Bears' last nine games, their opponents have scored first.
  • The Bears are 5-11-1 ATS as road underdogs. 5-12-1 ATS on the road.
  • Chicago is 4-1 at home/neutral fields and 0-3 on the road.
  • The Packers have been the first to 15 points in their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 games.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 13-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 11-4 ATS. Green Bay is 4-9 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • Green Bay is 2-7 as a road favorite ATS (sub-25%) and 10-10 on the money line.
  • The Packers have won each of their last 10 games against the Bears.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in each of their last 10 games against the Bears.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in the last six of their last seven games against teams with a losing record.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Bears' last nine games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bears' last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bears' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • They are 10-4-1 under the point total in their last 14 games.
  • Thirteen of the Bears' last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Packers are 18-10 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • Eleven of the Packers' last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers' first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5, 24 first-half points in Week 6, 14 in Week 7, 13 in Week 8 and 3 in Week 9.
  • Eight of the Packers' last 13 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

This is market overreaction 101 from the public.  The Bears got smashed at home as favorites last week and opened up as 6.5-point home underdogs in a divisional matchup. We've seen the line move slightly back in favor of Chicago, which is probably the sharp play here.

The Bears just fired their offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, and there's no doubt we will see some type of dead cat (beat cat?) bounce from their offense. The Bears (aside from last week) tend to play much better at home. Meanwhile, Green Bay is so hard to trust on the road to cover a large spread, especially against a divisional opponent.

It feels wrong to back Chicago, but there's just so much value in them as a 5.5-point home underdog.  Will Green Bay win? Probably. But will they cover? Not likely. Not to mention, the Packers also aren't out of the woods completely from the Honolulu Flu trend. Teams have yet to cover the spread the week after they played Detroit (even teams that went on a bye week directly after).

There are plenty of games to bet on this week considering sides. If you want to avoid sides entirely, just bet the under. Bears games have averaged under 38 points per game at home this season (2-2 O/U). The only overs were when the Bears scored 24-plus points.

The Bears' biggest weakness is defensively against the run, so I'd expect a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs fresh off the bye week. And with Thomas Brown taking over play-calling duties as Chicago's new interim OC, it will be an equally heavy run approach from the Bears. With the Panthers last season from Weeks 13-18, Brown orchestrated an offense that ranked -14% in pass rate over expectation.

If you are looking for points this weekend, they won't be at Soldier Field. Chicago still owns the No. 1 red-zone defense in the NFL. Green Bay ranks 29th in red-zone scoring.

Props

Caleb Williams has not attempted 30.5-plus pass attempts at home for the Bears this season. He has also only attempted 30.5-plus passes three times in nine games played this season. He has also not attempted 31 passes in any game Bears home game.

In the last two games, Christian Watson has led the Packers in targets (13) and air yards (211), but he has just seven catches for 76 yards. But fresh off the bye week, Watson is fully healthy,

In his last three games with a full allotment of snaps, Watson has at least 37 receiving yards.

My Picks

Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots

Sides:

  • The Patriots have lost 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine games.
  • The Patriots have lost nine of their last 12 games.
  • As road underdogs, the Patriots are 47.5% ATS (8-9) and sub-50% ATS on the road in their last 21 road contests.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine games.
  • The Rams 2023 starters are 3-10 as underdogs straight up. 2-4 as underdogs this season (3-3 ATS) after their massive wins against the 49ers and the Vikings.
  • The favorites have won 17 of the Rams' last 20 games.
  • The Rams have won seven of their last nine home games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in each of the Rams' last five home games.
  • The Rams have lost the first half in each of their last six road games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in four of their last five games as road favorites.

Totals:

  • Nine of the last 15 Patriots’ games have gone OVER the projected game total.
  • Four of the Patriots’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Patriots’ defense has allowed 300-plus yards in seven of 10 games this season. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
  • New England is 13-14 toward the under in its last 27 games and 5-5 this season.
  • They are 3-1 toward the over at home (44 points per game).
  • Eight of the Rams' last 15 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Rams are 11-11 toward the O/U in their last 22 games.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only seven times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense. They allowed over 300 yards of offense to the Raiders in Week 7. Miami only generated 238 yards against them on Monday Night Football.
  • Four of the Rams’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Based on what we saw last week, I would be very cautious about overanalyzing the performances of these two teams. The Bears’ offensive ineptitude was the reason New England's defense looked good. They had nine sacks in Week 10 and 16 total sacks through the first nine weeks of the season.

The Rams’ offense moved the ball on the Dolphins, but they were horrible on third down and in the red zone. Matthew Stafford has been very bad when pressured this season, but the Patriots are one of the worst teams at generating a pass rush–the sixth-worst pressure this season. Combine that with a bad run defense, and I think the Rams light up the scoreboard after they laid a dud on MNF.

Keep in mind that the Rams got two of their offensive linemen back last week, but they might have been a bit rusty. Trust Stafford in a clean pocket with all his weapons to take advantage of the Patriots’ bad defense.

The Rams have covered the spread in four of their last five games as road favorites. This is the spot where they deliver.

I also think we are going to see Drake Maye under constant duress. The Rams can't cover well, but they can generate a top pass rush.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Patriots have allowed the second-highest pressure rate (42.4%), the most quick pressures (86), and the fourth-most sacks (32). Given the Patriots’ latest trend toward overs, combined with the Rams’ offense in a favorable spot, I love the over here at 43.5 points.

The Patriots’ offense is predicated on Maye’s off-script abilities, and they will be on full display on Sunday at Gillette Stadium.

The Rams are 31st in EPA/attempt against downfield throws. Maye is dropping bombs this week.

Props:

Every RB used in the Rams’ passing game this season has gone over their prop, with all but two going for at least 30 receiving yards.

Kayshon Boutte has emerged as the Patriots’ No. 1 WR. He has 32.5 receiving yards in four of his last six games and six targets in three straight contests. He has over 320 air yards in his last three games (6th-most). The Rams rank 30th in yards per attempt allowed this season.

My Picks:

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins

Sides:

  • The Raiders have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 games.
  • The Raiders are 12-6-1 ATS over their last 19 games.
  • LV is 13-6-1 ATS at home (67%). They are 5-3-1 as home underdogs ATS but just 2-6 straight up.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last eight road games.
  • The Raiders have lost 10 of their last 12 road games.
  • The Dolphins have lost 10 of their last 12 games.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games.
  • Miami is 25 percent ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has been 3-8 overall since 2023. 5-9 as an underdog in their last 14 applicable games.
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted to their old ways during their three-game losing streak. In their Week 5 and Week 7 wins against the Patriots/Colts, they came back from first-half deficits.
  • The Dolphins have lost 11 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 14 of their last 16 games as underdogs.
  • The Dolphins have won 20 of their last 27 home games.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five home games.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dolphins have covered the spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Raiders' last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line, and they are 14-11 toward the under.
  • Five of the Raiders' last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Four of the Raiders’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Raiders’ last six home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, eight of the Dolphins’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Miami is 2-2 toward the over at home this season (44 points per game).
  • Five of the Dolphins' last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Raiders have lost each of their last five games, whereas Miami is 0-4 ATS at home this season. Based on the surface trends analysis, this game screams like a Miami win with a backdoor cover by Las Vegas.

Funny enough, we had this same matchup last season in Week 11, with LV visiting the Dolphins as 13.5-point underdogs. Miami was off a bye week and viewed as a much better team. However, it didn't matter, given the Raiders only lost 20-13, with the first half finishing 14-13 in favor of Miami.

The 7.5 points seem like a lot for a Dolphins team that has one win this season with Tua Tagovailoa as their quarterback.

They were seven-point underdogs when Las Vegas played the Bengals on the road in Week 9. I don't think they are nearly as overmatched against the Dolphins, especially coming off a bye week against a team playing on a short week.

We saw this same phenomenon play out (a team off a bye week playing a team off MNF) with SF playing Tampa in Week 9. Had it not been for a flurry of mixed FGs, the 49ers would have covered the spread.

Give me the Raiders to continue their streak of strong play on the road against a vastly overrated Dolphins team at home.

As for the total, I'll just chase the trends. Under 44 points. Raiders' road game shade toward the under, and this Dolphins offense hardly looked like a juggernaut against the Rams.

Props:

On the ground in Week 9, Alexander Mattison led the Raiders with nine carries for 36 yards, averaging 4 yards per carry and a long of 7 yards. Ameer Abdullah chipped in with four carries for 12 yards (3.0 YPC), while Zamir White found the end zone on one of his six carries but only gained a total of 10 yards (1.7 YPC). Ridder and Minshew each had one carry, but neither was able to generate positive yardage.

Mattison and White split carries (six apiece) in the first half. Mattison's snaps fell to 39%, his lowest since Week 4. It was also beyond perplexing that the team put White into the game in the red zone over Mattison, something they did the reverse of early in the year when White was the starter.

What a backfield mess. With a new offensive coordinator brought in and Antonio Pierce continuing to pound the table for White, I wouldn't be surprised if we see another backfield flip this week in favor of White over Mattison.

Mattison has gone over 43 rushing yards only twice this season, and it took 23 carries to get there in his most recent effort. Also, the Dolphins defense has delivered three straight unders to RBs they have faced in as many weeks.

My Picks:

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

Sides

  • The Jaguars have lost 13 of their last 16 games.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 road games (not in Jacksonville).
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 16 games.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-5 overall as a favorite, dating back to last season. They are just 2-11 as an underdog since the start of last season.
  • The Jaguars have lost each of their last nine games as underdogs.
  • ATS they are 7-2 as a home underdog and 5-4 on the money line.
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as home underdogs dating back to last season (although it does depend on the final closing line).
  • The Lions are 20-9 ATS as favorites. They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 16-7 ATS over their last 23 games. When in doubt? Lions ATS for the win.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 road games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in 11 of their last 14 games.
  • The Lions have won their last 12 games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Lions have won 10 of their last 12 home games.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 12 of their last 13 games.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in each of their last eight home games

Totals:

  • Five of the Jaguars’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 2-2 toward the over at home (Under 53 points per game).
  • Six of the Jaguars' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Jags’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in eight of their last 18 games.
  • Jacksonville scored 30 or more points five times since 2023. Three of those games came against the Colts.
  • Thirteen of the Lions’ last 20 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The average total in the Lions’ last 23 home games has been 54.5 points; 74 percent (17/23) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Seven of the Lions’ last 10 home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Can the Jaguars make this a game? That's the main question here regarding this matchup. Mac Jones is slated to get his second start with Trevor Lawrence out due to a shoulder injury. Jones was bad in his first matchup against the Vikings, although most QBs that have faced Minnesota have gone through the Brian Flores blender.

Detroit is coming off an impromptu comeback victory over the Texans, overcoming a five-interception game from quarterback Jared Goff.

Back at home in the dome - the Coors Field of the NFL - we should fully expect the Lions offense to get back on track.

But will it be in total blowout fashion? I'm not so sure. As bad as they are perceived to be, the Jaguars have covered four straight spreads. They have also covered all but one spread on the road this season (3-1 ATS).

Last week, they benefitted from Sam Darnold's turnovers, but their pass rush came alive to help keep the game tight. However, the defense remains a sieve - as they allowed over 400 yards of offense for the third straight week.

There's not much to break down from the Lions' side. They are going to score points.

Can the Jaguars do anything offensively to keep pace? I think so. The Lions’ defense is super vulnerable against the slot, which is exactly where the Jaguars like to deploy tight end Evan Engram and wide receiver Parker Washington.

The Lions also love to blitz and play man coverage. It's not a conservative defense by any means. They are going to take chances, and I think that benefits the Jaguars’ chances of generating a few big plays to stack the odds in their favor. After all, if they think they are going to win with long drives, they have already lost. There's also a case to be made where we could see some effectiveness with the Jaguars rushing attack.

The Lions haven't been great against stopping rushing inside the tackles, whereas the Jaguars have been most effective rushing in this area of the field. Travis Etienne is healthy and surely will be leaned on a great amount in this matchup alongside Tank Bigsby.

I think I've convinced myself to take the Jaguars +14. But anybody who has read this column every week knows exactly my favorite bet in every Lions home game. The over.

Given we are having two over machine teams converge in this matchup, I love playing over the 47 point total. And a number that is extremely low for a Lions home matchup. Note that the last time the Lions were more than 12-point home favorites, they covered the total by themselves, scoring 52 points on the Titans.

Props:

Engram led the receiving corps last week, catching six of eight targets for 40 yards, averaging 6.7 yards per catch, with a long of 15 yards and 17 yards after the catch. Dominated the target share at 38%, adding 53 air yards or 30% of the team's air yards-38% target rate with Jones at QB. The Jags passing game - for better or worse - seems to go through Engram.

My Picks:

Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints

Sides:

  • The Saints have covered the spread in six of their last 12 games.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
  • Their opponents have scored first in eight of the Saints’ last 12 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Saints have lost seven of their last eight games.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The Saints are 3-6 ATS as home underdogs (8-14 on the money line as underdogs)
  • As home underdogs, the Saints are 2-7 straight up. Woof.
  • The Saints are 2-6 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 home games against AFC opponents.
  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games.
  • The Browns have lost nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Browns have won eight of their last 12 games as favorites and 9-5 as a favorite.
  • The Browns are 6-9-1 ATS in their last 15 road appearances as underdogs and 5-3 as home underdogs.
  • The Browns have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 home games.
  • Cleveland is 9-5 on the ML at home.
  • The Browns have won four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Browns have covered the spread in six of their last eight home games against teams with winning records.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Saints’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Saints are 3-2 toward the over at home (48.4 points per game).
  • The Saints have the ninth-best red-zone defense in the NFL (48% conversion rate) – but it’s been getting worse every week.
  • Six of the Browns’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Browns' last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Browns' last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Browns' last 14 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 14-12-1 toward the over in their last 27 games.
  • Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season (except for Week 8).
  • The Browns are 2-3 toward the over at home (Under 42 points per game).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 10-4 toward the under at home.

Overall:

Given the moving parts of both teams, it's hard to rely too much on overall trends. But my initial lean is taking the Browns to win as slight road favorites. Derek Carr remains one of the least profitable quarterbacks to bet on as a favorite (36% ATS).

The Cleveland Browns’ defense is lightyears ahead of the Atlanta Falcons, and the dead-cat bounce impact of new Saints interim head coach Dan Rizzi tends to fizzle out after another week.

Even in a losing effort at home against the Chargers, so much of that production came on blown assignments. The Chargers were also blanked in the second half with four punts and a missed field goal.

Cleveland's defense has shown up against the likes of the Eagles, Bengals, and Ravens, so I think they can slow down a barren Saints offense absent of supreme talent to come away with a road upset. Remember, Carr can be effective when he is not under pressure. Atlanta can't generate any pressure.

The Browns, led by Myles Garrett, will be pinning their ears to get after Carr. According to Next Gen Stats, Myles Garrett has recorded a league-high 26 quick pressures this season, including the 2nd-quickest pass rush get-off time (0.70 seconds) among players with at least 150 pass rushes. Garrett has also recorded a 21.5% pressure rate this season, the 2nd-highest in the NFL.

Offensively, I also see an advantage for Jameis Winston and the Browns offense. It's a revenge game for Winston, although this profiles as a classic throwback Nick Chubb 100-yard rushing performance. Fresh off the bye week, he should be effective against the Saints’ atrocious run defense that ranks 31st in EPA/rush and sixth in rushing yards allowed per game.

The Saints’ defense has allowed a league-high 5.4 yards per carry on designed rushes outside the tackles this season, having contacted opposing rushers behind the line of scrimmage on just 39.2% of such carries (2nd-lowest rate). The Browns’ offense has averaged 4.7 yards per carry on designed rushes outside the tackles this season (13th).

Props:

Chubb has 15-plus carries in two straight games against two of the league's best run defenses. This is by far his best matchup to date.

With all the injuries to the Saints WRs, Taysom Hill has taken on a bigger role as a receiver. He has at least 21 yards in three straight games. He also should have had a much bigger stat line last week if his 88-yard TD had not been called back for a penalty.

Take the over.

Speaking of over streaks - Cedric Tillman. Over. 75-plus yards in three straight games.

My Picks:

Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans

Sides:

  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 15 games. They are 6-3 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
  • The Vikings are 6-3-2 ATS as road favorites.
  • As home favorites, the Vikings are 10-4 on the money line (69%) but just 6-9 ATS. They have dropped seven of their last eight home games ATS as favorites.
  • All but five of the Vikings' last 23 games have been decided by eight points or less (78%).
  • The Vikings have won the first quarter in seven of their last nine games.
  • The Titans have lost seven of their last nine games as favorites. They are 3-7 ATS as home favorites (30%).
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 13 games.
  • The Titans are 6-7 at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 12 games at Nissan Stadium.
  • The Titans have lost 15 of their last 17 road games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • As road underdogs, the Titans are 7-10-1 ATS.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Vikings’ last 12 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Vikings' last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Vikings are 6-3 toward the under this season. 3-1 toward the under at home this season, averaging fewer than 41 points per game.
  • Teams averaged over 42 points in Minnesota, 3-7-1 toward the over since the start of the 2023 season.
  • The Vikings are 3-9-1 toward the under in Minnesota since the start of 2023.
  • Eight of the Vikings’ last nine games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Titans are 14-11-1 toward the under in their last 26 games.
  • Tennessee is 1-2-1 O/U this season, averaging under 40 points per game.

Overall:

Did we not learn our lesson from last week? The Vikings went on the road as 7-point favorites and nearly lost outright because of Sam Darnold.

This team in its current form does not blow other teams out. All but five of the Vikings' last 23 games have been decided by eight points or less (78%).

And with Darnold's turnovers, I'd imagine Kevin O'Connell approaches this game with a more conservative approach, knowing that Will Levis is begging to give the game away on the other side.

That being said, Levis is coming off one of his better games of the season after missing several games with a shoulder injury. His 78% completion rate, 7.6 yards per attempt, 2 passing TDs, and zero interceptions were impressive against a very stout Chargers pass defense.

Playing at home - where the Titans perform much better - I like backing the home underdogs catching six points. As we saw last week, laying more than 4.5 points with Darnold as a road favorite is just too MUCH, especially against a Titans defense that can force the Vikings into a pass-heavy game script with the league's No. 1 rushing stuff rate.

The total looks like an easy under. These two teams' strengths are their defenses. Tennessee’s defense ranks 12th in EPA/play allowed, while the Vikings rank first.

Both QBs can turn the ball over at any given moment.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Titans offense has allowed a league-high 43.0% pressure rate this season, including a league-high 53.6% pressure rate allowed against the blitz.

Levis has been prone to turnovers and negative plays when under pressure this season, having recorded the 2nd-lowest dropback success rate (23.1%) and the 4th-highest interception per dropback rate (5.1%) on pressured dropbacks this season. The Vikings have blitzed on 40.2% of opposing dropbacks this season (2nd-highest in NFL), generating an unblocked pressure on 8.2% of dropbacks overall (4th in NFL). The Vikings have recorded six interceptions when pressuring opposing quarterbacks, tied for the most in the NFL.

Minnesota’s “overs” have all been against offenses like the healthy Rams, Lions, and Packers. I’m not sure the Titans (like the Jaguars last week) fall into that bucket of offenses, given that they needed a garbage time TD to push the game over the total last week.

Case in point – 10 of the Vikings’ last 12 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

Ultimately, I think the winner of this game comes down to the turnover battle so I'll take the Titans, with the +6 already accounting for the Titans turnovers.

Props:

Calvin Ridley has been the focal point of the Titans offense since DeAndre Hopkins was traded, with his target rate increasing from 20.3% in Weeks 1-6 to 32.3% since Week 7.

Ridley caught only 9 of 27 targets through Week 6, translating to -5.2 receptions over expected (6th-fewest in NFL). Ridley has caught 23 of 41 targets since Week 7, which is more in line with expectations based on the difficulty of each target (+0.3% catch rate over expected). Ridley's 32.3% target rate since Hopkins was traded ranks 4th-highest among wide receivers who have run 50+ routes over that span.

Ridley had three straight games with over 56.5 receiving yards.

My Picks:

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sides:

  • The Ravens have covered the spread in five of their last eight games.
  • Baltimore is 15-6 on the money line as home favorites but just 9-12 ATS as home favorites.
  • Baltimore is 14-5 ATS on the road in the last two seasons and 10-4 ATS as a road favorite in their last 14 applicable appearances.
  • The Steelers have won 10 of their last 13 games.
  • The Steelers are 14-7 ATS on the road.
  • The Steelers are 7-5 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
  • The Steelers are 7-5 as home favorites ATS.
  • The Steelers have covered the spread in each of their last four games.
  • The Steelers have scored first in each of their last four games.

Totals:

  • Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (10 of their last 13), but they tended to be against better offenses.
  • The Ravens are 9-1 toward the over this season.
  • Nine of the Ravens' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The lowest total game they’ve played in this season has been 45 points.
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in 12 of the last 15 games (12 of the previous 17).
  • Each of the Ravens’ last five road games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Steelers are 4-5 toward the under this season. 2-2 O/U at home this season (41 points per game).
  • Each of the Steelers' last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Steelers’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Steelers' last 15 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the last seven games between the Ravens and Steelers has gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Per Brandon Anderson of the Action Network, underdogs in Mike Tomlin versus John Harbaugh matchups against the spread have generated a 79%-win rate for the team, catching at least three points. The main benefactor in the most recent matchups has been the Steelers. Pittsburgh has won each of their last five games as underdogs against the Ravens.

Given Mike Tomlin's strong record as an underdog and against the Ravens, I think it is simple to take Pittsburgh +3.

As for the total, this is where this game gets really interesting. No game the Steelers have played this season has closed above 45.5 points (last week).

I famously was "in" on the under between the Commanders and Steelers last week, and we saw how those results played out. Not great.

So, consider me hesitant to pull the trigger on the under for a Ravens game, even though it is bizarre to see a matchup between two AFC North teams this high.

But given the track record between these two teams, I want you to keep this in mind. The underdogs have won most of the time in the games that have gone UNDER the total. Ergo, if the Steelers win/cover, I'd imagine it will be accompanied by an under. Vice-versa with the over and the Ravens at -3.

Can Pittsburgh slow down the Ravens? I think so.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Steelers have allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards over expected in the NFL this season (-126) and have missed a tackle on just 10.3% of tackle opportunities, the lowest in the league. In the four games that Baltimore has failed to cover the spread this season, Henry has been held under 85 rushing yards.

Offensively, I'd expect the Steelers to be able to take advantage of the Ravens’ defense.

The Ravens have allowed the 3rd-most yards (597) and tied for the most touchdowns (7) to deep passes in 2024. According to Next Gen Stats, Baltimore has allowed just 10 explosive rushes (10+ yards) this season, the fewest in the NFL, but has allowed a league-high 83 explosive passes (15+ yards).

The Ravens have been susceptible to plays over the middle third of the field, allowing the most yards (1,193) on such passes. The Ravens defense has struggled defending passes 10+ air yards downfield this season, allowing the 5th-highest completion percentage over expected (4.5%), 5th-most yards per attempt (11.7), and most passing EPA (+67.1) on such attempts this season.

Throw in the home-field advantage for the Steelers, I love them in this spot catching three points. I likely won't touch the game total, as an over means my Steelers might be cooked.

Props:

Henry has been held under 86.5 rushing yards in two of his last three games. Only one RB the Steelers has faced this season has rushed for more than 100 yards (two 88-plus).

Rashod Bateman is a big-play threat and can go over his receiving yards prop on one play. He should see volume, given the matchup versus the Steelers, who rank sixth in targets per game allowed to No. 2 WRs.

Two weeks ago was the first time Bateman didn’t exceed at least 28 yards when he caught at least two passes. Bateman would be on a streak of six straight overs had it not been for drops in two of his last three games. Keep betting the overs.

My Picks:

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 19 of the Colts’ last 22 games.
  • The Colts are 2-1 ATS as favorites this season
  • They are 5-2 ATS as an underdog (2-5 overall).
  • The Colts are 8-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • The Colts have lost five of their last six road games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against AFC opponents.
  • In four of the Colts’ last five games as road underdogs, the first score has been a Colts Touchdown.
  • The Jets have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
  • The Jets have lost each of six of their seven games.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 16 of their last 21 games. 3-7 ATS this season
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games against teams with winning records.
  • In each of the Jets' last seven games, their opponents have scored last.
  • The Jets have lost their last five road games against opponents on a winning streak.

Totals:

  • Six of the last nine Colts’ games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Colts’ last 13 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Only thrice has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (nine starts), with seven or fewer points in four contests.
  • With Richardson at QB this season, the Colts are 1-4 toward the over this season (four straight unders).
  • With Joe Flacco, 3-2 O/U (last three games 2-1).
  • The Colts are 4-1 toward the under in their last five games.
  • Fifteen of the Jets' last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jets are 3-2-1 toward the over on the road this season.

Overall:

Shane Steichen had seen enough after two games with Joe Flacco under center. Anthony Richardson is back as QB1 after apparently making massive strides the last two weeks.

Richardson said that he lowkey benefitted from the benching and that he is willing to sacrifice anything for his team. Sure, sounds like a guy motivated to prove a point in Week 11.

Storylines aside, the lines moved in favor of the Jets -4 after it was announced that Richardson was going to start. I couldn't be more opposite of the market. We just saw the Jets get destroyed by a run-heavy Cardinals offense led by a mobile QB. You don't think Steichen won't just do the same thing with Richardson at QB?

New York continues to be a public team that underwhelms. The line moves in their favor every week, and they find ways to disappoint.

And the Colts seem very live here as moderate underdogs to at least cover. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Colts have lost each of their last 11 games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points). But this season, they are 5-2 ATS as underdogs in that point spread range from +2 to +5.0 points.

All this team does is play in tight contests. According to Next Gen Stats, the 2024 Colts are the 4th team in NFL history to have each of their first 10 games decided by one possession.

If the Colts can run the football effectively, I think they can keep this game much closer. As I outlined last week, the Colts’ defense has also gotten better with the return of defensive lineman DeForest Buckner.

As for the total, I'm just a slave to the trends. Colts games with Richardson go under. And the Jets are 3-1 toward the under with the one over hitting a massive 43-point total. The 43.5 points for this matchup is too high.

Props:

The Jets have allowed over 50 rushing yards per game to two of the last three QBs they have faced. The rank 26th in EPA/play allowed against QB scrambles this season.

Richardson has at least 45 rushing yards in his last two games, with his season-long average at 40 yards.

My Picks:

Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos

Sides:

  • Rookie QBs are a combined 21-15 ATS this season.
  • The Broncos are 7-7 ATS on the road from 2023 (5-3 ATS last eight road games).
  • They are 9-7-1 as road underdogs (52%).
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • The Broncos have won six of their last seven home games against NFC opponents.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last six games following a loss.
  • Their opponents have scored first in four of the Falcons’ last five games.
  • The Falcons are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games as underdogs and 10-5 as home favorites on the money line.
  • The Falcons are 10-15-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing at 8-6 straight up.
  • The underdogs have won 12 of the Falcons’ last 22 games.
  • The Falcons are 5-6 ATS on the road, 3-5 ATS as road favorites, and 6-13 on the road straight up.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 13 games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • The Falcons have won six of their last nine games.
  • Atlanta is 10-5 on the money line as home favorites (15-9 at home overall).
  • The Falcons, as a home favorite, are 6-9 ATS.
  • The Falcons have won seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.

Totals:

  • The Broncos rank fourth in red zone defense.
  • Five of the Broncos' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Broncos' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fourteen of the Broncos' last 22 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Broncos’ last six road games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Denver is 3-1 O/U at home this season. They are averaging 38 points per game.
  • The Falcons are 4-6 O/U this season.
  • Five of the Falcons’ last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Atlanta is 2-2 O/U on the road this season, with games averaging fewer than 50 points.
  • At home, they are 2-4 O/U, averaging fewer than 46 points per game.
  • Four of the Falcons’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

The Broncos haven't lost a game or failed to cover a spread as favorites this season. Bo Nix is 3-0 ATS as a favorite, and I see no reason why he can't extend that streak to four games at home against the Falcons.

Atlanta's defense can't generate pressure, putting Nix in a great position to succeed in this matchup. According to Next Gen Stats, the Falcons defense has generated the lowest pressure rate in the NFL this season (27.4%) while allowing opposing quarterbacks record an average time to throw of 2.79 seconds, the 18th-longest in the league.

The Broncos offense has allowed the 7th-lowest pressure rate (29.1%) this season, despite Nix averaging the 6th-longest time to throw (3.02 seconds) in the NFL.

The Falcons are a bottom-10 defense in any way you slice the data.

Meanwhile, the Broncos' defense remains a top-notch unit that is going to present problems for Kirk Cousins. No. 3-ranked defense in terms of EPA/play allowed.

The Falcons have been covering spreads on the road this season, but they dropped their first road game last week. This is just the third time the Falcons have been underdogs this season, with them 1-1 ATS and straight up.

After opening the week thinking I'd side with the Falcons, I am shifting to the Broncos to win by a field goal margin.

Props:

According to Next Gen Stats, Darnell Mooney and Drake London are on pace to become the 3rd WR duo in the last 30 years to each rank in the top 8 in the NFL in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.

The others to do so were HOF Marvin Harrison Sr. & Reggie Wayne in 2006, and HOF Randy Moss and HOF Cris Carter in 1999.

Bijan Robinson has had five consecutive games with 100+ scrimmage yards, the longest active streak in the NFL, and the longest by a Falcons player since Julio Jones had a 6-game streak in 2018 (Next Gen Stats).

Robinson has four straight games with at least 28 receiving yards. Denver just allowed 65 receiving yards to Kareem Hunt. You do the math.

All but one running back the Falcons have faced has gone OVER their rushing yardage prop this season (70-plus yards in all but one game).

Falcons are very bad against inside tackles rushes - 29th in EPA per rush allowed - and every Broncos RB this season has averaged at least four yards per carry on inside tackle runs. Broncos rookie RB Audric Estime (albeit with a smaller sample size) is over 5 yards per carry on such rushing attempts this season.

Since Courtland Sutton's goose egg against the Saints, he has been red-hot-70-plus yards in three straight games.

My Picks:

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

Sides:

  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 home games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 15 of the 49ers’ last 21 games.
  • San Francisco is 14-7 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
  • The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth worst in the NFL in 2023.
  • So far, in 2024, they are 3-2 ATS at home. They covered against the Patriots/Jets/Cowboys, not against Arizona/Kansas City.
  • The 49ers have covered the spread thrice in their last 12 home games.
  • The 49ers are 9-10 ATS as road favorites in their last 19 games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in their last eight games following a win.
  • The 49ers have been the first to 20 points in their last 16 games against NFC West opponents.
  • The 49ers have won each of their last six games against the Seahawks.
  • The favorites have won 20 of the Seahawks' last 24 games.
  • Seattle is 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games played (5-11-1 over the last 15 games).
  • Seattle is 10-3 as a favorite in the last 13 games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games as favorites.
  • The Seahawks are 4-6-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last 11 games.
  • Seattle is 4-5 as home underdogs overall and ATS.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in five of their last 10 games as underdogs.
  • Seattle is the road underdog ATS at 7-8 (45%). As away underdogs on the money line, they are 4-11.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven home games.
  • The Seahawks have lost five of their last six games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in eight of the Seahawks’ last seven games as underdogs.

Totals:

  • Seven of the 49ers’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The 49ers are 3-2 toward the over at home, averaging over 48 points per game.
  • Nine of the 49ers’ last 11 games against NFC West opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Seahawks' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Seahawks' last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Seahawks' last 11 home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

The 49ers will host the Seahawks in Week 11 in a rematch of their Week 6 Thursday Night Football contest. The Niners won 36-24, with the game total flying over the 49-point total. However, it was a 6-point contest heading into the 4th quarter and a five-point game before a massive Isaac Guerendo run.

That game was without Christian McCaffrey in the lineup.

Given that line was +3.5, San Fran is getting the standard 3-point bump at home. But they have just been so bad covering these larger spreads at home that I want no part in laying that many points with the inconsistent kicking.

Seattle is off a bye week, and they will be getting back WR DK Metcalf. Seattle throws too much to rule out a backdoor cover completely.

Because, Lord knows, they are going to be giving up points defensively. Per Next Gen Stats, the Seahawks have allowed the most total YPG (412.0) and yards per play (6.3) in the NFL since Week 4. The 49ers have averaged the second-most total YPG (415.0) and yards per play (6.8) in the NFL since Week 4.

My lean is toward going back to the over, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see Seattle's defense come out slightly improved after their bye week. The system is complicated, and an entire week off to learn the ins and outs against a familiar opponent could lead to a surprising under.  Seattle is on a skid of three straight unders, although that coincides with Metcalf's injury timeline.

I think this game might be best for the props.

Props:

The Seahawks used single-high coverage shells on a season-low 36.7% of dropbacks in Week 6 vs the 49ers. In Christian McCaffrey's season debut, the 49ers faced single-high on a season-high 72.9% of plays, a notable uptick from their previous season-high of 51.6% (Week 1 vs NYJ).

The 49ers offense has averaged the 6th-most yards per carry (5.5) and the 4th-highest success rate (48.5%) on designed runs against two-high safety shells this season.

The Seahawks’ defense has allowed the sixth-most yards per carry (5.5) and the sixth-highest rushing success rate (47.4%) when defending designed runs with two-high safeties. The Seahawks have also allowed +157 rushing yards over expected on such carries, the most in the NFL (731 actual yards, fourth-most).

Ergo, expect more of Seattle in single-high coverage shells in Week 11 to help limit McCaffrey. This should make the 49ers offense similar to what we saw last week with Brock Purdy - where he attempted zero downfield passes (7.5 average depth of target). His only other low ADOT game this season was also against Seattle.

According to Next Gen Stats, George Kittle caught both of his targets for 19 yards and two touchdowns on six routes run inside the red zone in Week 6 against the Seahawks. The 49ers have averaged 5.6 yards per carry with George Kittle on the field compared to 3.4 yards per carry with him off the field this season. Kittle has also been on the field for every one of their nine total rushing touchdowns.

Seattle is a Deebo Samuel smash spot historically.  Samuel has recorded 79+ receiving yards in seven of his eight previous appearances against the Seahawks. He went for over 100 yards the last time he played against the Seahawks back in Week 6.

My Picks:

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

Sides:

  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 15 games.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 15 games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 16 of the Chiefs’ last 22 games.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in six of their last seven road games.
  • The Chiefs are sub-50% ATS at home and ATS in their last 23 home games.
  • The Bills have won 14 of their last 17 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 18-6 as a favorite since the start of last season and 12-12 ATS.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 25 games.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Bills have won their last 13 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • The Bills are 12-2 straight up and 7-7 ATS at home since the start of 2023.
  • Bills are 8-6- ATS as road favorites.
  • The Bills have scored first in 12 of their last 13 games against the Chiefs.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in their last four road games against the Bills.

Totals:

  • Eleven of the Chiefs’ last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line (13 of the last 18).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have not allowed a team to score 27 points against them.
  • They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
  • KC is 3-2 toward the over at home this season (Under 47 points per game).
  • Each of the Bills' last seven home games has gone OVER the total points line. They are 4-0 toward the over this season (55 points per game).
  • Six of the Bills' last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Bills' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line. (16 of their last 22 road games)
  • Eight of the Bills' last nine games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Patrick Mahomes is 12-1-1 against the spread as underdog (85%). Friends don't let friends bet on Buffalo this weekend. I really don't think we need to overthink this particular spot. You want to be on the Mahomes underdog side more often than not.

As for the total, I feel like we actually might get some fireworks for once. Buffalo has been an over machine at home dating back to the end of last season. And if there's any offense that can score on KC's top-tier defense, it's Josh Allen. If they get Amari Cooper back, he could be the missing piece that puts this game over the top.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Bills are 7-0 when Josh Allen has had a passer rating above 95.0 this season, and 1-2 when Allen has had a passer rating below 95.0. Chiefs have allowed an average 92.9 passer rating this season.

Props:

The Bills defense is allowing the most yards, most catches, and most targets to RBs in the passing game this season.

Last week, the Chiefs receiving corps was led by Kareem Hunt, who caught seven of his 10 targets (25% target share) for 65 yards, averaging 9.3 yards per reception with a long gain of 26 yards. Ten targets for Kareem Hunt. Wild. It was a season-high in routes run for Hunt, so I do think there is some sticking power with his receiving role in Week 11. Hunt's 55% route participation was the highest for any Chiefs RB since Isiah Pacheco back in Week 1.

James Cook has been very boom-or-bust as a rusher this season. Five games with 70-plus rushing yards compared to four games with 45 or fewer yards. Given that KC has allowed one RB to get to 57 yards against them all season, Cook is looking like he is going to come short in the rushing departments this week.

My Picks:

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