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NFL Week 11 Line Movement Analysis (2023)

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Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.

Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.

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NFL Week 11 Line Movement Analysis

The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.

Home Spread Total
Away Home Open Current Diff Open  Current  Diff 
NYJ BUF -6.5 -7 -0.5 40.5 39.5 -1
DAL CAR 11 10.5 -0.5 42 42.5 0.5
PIT CLE -3.5 -1 2.5 37 33 -4
MIN DEN -2 -2.5 -0.5 43 42.5 -0.5
CHI DET -9.5 -7.5 2 46.5 48 1.5
LAC GB 3 3 0 44 44 0
ARI HOU -4 -5 -1 48.5 48.5 0
TEN JAX -6.5 -7 -0.5 40 40 0
PHI KC -3 -3 0 46.5 45.5 -1
SEA LAR 3 1 -2 44.5 46 1.5
LV MIA -10 -13.5 -3.5 47.5 46.5 -1
TB SF -10.5 -12 -1.5 41.5 41.5 0
NYG WAS -10 -8.5 1.5 37 37 0

(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via @betstamp | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday morning)

NFL Week 11 Spread Movement Analysis

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: -9.5 → -7.5

The Bears announced QB Justin Fields will return this week after missing the last four games. Based on the line movement, that announcement was about 2 points. Fields’ injury against the Vikings in Week 6 came at an unfortunate time since he was coming off two of the best passing games of his career, throwing for a combined 617 yards and 8 TD’s against the Broncos and Commanders. This will be a significant step about in class against the current NFC #2 seed and division rival Lions. Fields will have these last seven games to prove he should remain in Chicago or if the Bears should move in another direction in the draft.

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins: -10 → -13.5

The Raiders are coming off two wins against both New York teams. It seems that this is not impacting any momentum to Vegas’ side, as the line has moved 3.5-points in the Dolphins favor. The Dolphins are coming off a bye and may get dynamic rookie RB De’Von Achane back from injury. Rookie QB Aidan O’Connell will need to step up if the Raiders hope to keep pace with the high-powered Miami offense. O’Connell has only thrown one TD over the last two weeks.

NFL Week 11 Total Movement Analysis

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 37 → 33

This total was already tied for the lowest of the week on Monday. After the news that Browns’ QB Deshaun Watson will miss the remainder of the year, the total dropped an additional 4-points. You don’t normally see this low of a line set for NFL games, but it is warranted given these two defenses and the QB’s leading the offenses. Both defenses rank in the top 10 in sacks and should create plenty of pressure on Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams: 44.5 → 46

The return of Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford likely attributed to this total jumping 1.5-points. The Rams offense could do nothing in Green Bay without Stafford, but the offense should be able to get back to form after their bye week. The Seahawks defense has struggled the last three weeks, allowing on average 27.7 ppg. Outside of the blowout loss in Baltimore, Seattles offense has been scoring and should have a good opportunity to put up points against a Rams defense allowing 29 ppg over their last three games.

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