NFL Week 11 Line Movement Analysis (2024)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 11 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| MIN | TEN | 6.5 | 6 | 0.5 | 41 | 39.5 | -1.5 |
| GB | CHI | 6.5 | 5.5 | 1 | 42.5 | 40.5 | -2 |
| LAR | NE | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1 | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0 |
| BAL | PIT | 3 | 3 | 0 | 47.5 | 48.5 | 1 |
| JAX | DET | -13 | -14 | 1 | 47.5 | 47 | -0.5 |
| CLE | NO | -2.5 | 1 | -3.5 | 44 | 44.5 | 0.5 |
| IND | NYJ | -3 | -4 | 1 | 44 | 43.5 | -0.5 |
| LV | MIA | -7.5 | -7 | -0.5 | 44.5 | 44 | -0.5 |
| ATL | DEN | -1.5 | -2.5 | 1 | 44 | 44 | 0 |
| SEA | SF | -7 | -6.5 | -0.5 | 49.5 | 48 | -1.5 |
| KC | BUF | -1.5 | -2 | 0.5 | 46.5 | 46 | -0.5 |
| CIN | LAC | -2.5 | -1.5 | -1 | 45 | 47.5 | 2.5 |
| HOU | DAL | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0 | 42 | 42 | 0 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 11 Spread Movement Analysis
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints: -2.5 -> +1
This Browns-Saints matchup is the only one of the Week 11 slate that saw its line jump the fence throughout the week. There has been non-stop support on the Browns, as this line has made stops at Browns +1.5, +1, and pick’em before it crossed over to -1. Based on that line movement, it would not be surprising to see the line keep moving in Cleveland’s favor.
Bettors do not seem impressed that New Orleans snapped its seven-game losing streak in Darren Rizzi’s first game as interim head coach. Cleveland is off a bye, but perhaps bettors are aware of the trend that Saints quarterback Derek Carr is the third-least profitable ATS quarterback since 2003 after a SU win (29-41-1 ATS).
Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos: -1.5 -> -2.5
For much of the beginning part of the week, there appeared to be equal betting support for both teams, as this line toggled between Broncos -1.5 to -1 and even to -2 briefly. However, in the latter part of the week the line has moved between -2 and -2.5, suggesting that the bigger wagers, or at least the more sharp side, is on the Broncos.
Given that the Falcons have always received a little bit of buyback when the line has moved away from them, it would be surprising to see this line get to the key number of three. However, the love for the Broncos is understandable, given that they came within a blocked field goal of beating the 9-0 Chiefs in Arrowhead last week.
NFL Week 11 Total Movement Analysis
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 42.5 -> 40.5
This total saw non-stop support on the Under from an opening number of 42.5 down to 40, but has since ticked back up slightly to 40.5. Could that late line movement have anything to do with the Bears firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron this week after nine games?
Caleb Williams has averaged just 156 passing yards per game with zero touchdowns and one turnover during the team’s current three-game losing streak. In addition, Chicago has not scored an offensive touchdown in 23 consecutive drives.
The line movement is seemingly all surrounding the Bears’ offensive ineptitude, as a quick glance at the forecast for Sunday in Chicago shows a warm 61 degree day with just a 17% chance of precipitation and light winds (12 mph SW).
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets: 44 -> 43.5
At first glance, this half-point line movement does not appear to be the most news-worthy. However, the early betting support was for the Over, as the line ticked up almost instantly from 44 to 45. From there, the total bottomed out at a week-long low of 43.5, bounced back briefly to 44, and back once again to 43.5.
The initial support for the Over was likely a clear response that the Colts declared they were sticking with Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback early in the week. Meanwhile, the Under appeared to come crashing down once Indianapolis announced it would start Anthony Richardson for the remainder of the season.
Richardson is 3-3 in six starts this season, while throwing four passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. And in 10 career games, he has seven passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns to go along with eight interceptions. Meanwhile, the support for the Under contradicts the trend that Aaron Rodgers has a 7-1 TD-INT ratio and 100.2 quarterback rating in home games this season, but an 8-6 TD-INT ratio and 77.5 quarterback rating in road starts.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.