NFL Week 11 Sunday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (Bengals vs. Chargers)
Welcome to the final NFL betting article for the Week 11 NFL Sunday Slate from BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 11’s Sunday Night Football nightcap matchup between the Bengals and Chargers. In this standalone SNF breakdown, we’re laser-focused on the highly anticipated showdown as we hit the second half of the NFL regular season. From expert insights on the spread and total to can’t-miss player props, I’ll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to build off your earlier winnings and/or chase your losses from the early slate of games.
Get ready, folks-it’s time to place those BETS. Let’s dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Sunday Night Football.
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Sunday Night Football Primer
Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sides:
- The Chargers have won each of their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Chargers are 6-3 ATS this season.
- The Chargers have scored first in seven of their last eight games.
- The favorites have covered the spread in eight of the Chargers' last nine games.
- Joe Burrow is 19-5 against the spread following a loss. Joey Covers.
- The Bengals are 15-6 ATS on the road.
- The Bengals have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games against teams with losing records.
- The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games against AFC North opponents.
- The Bengals have won 14 of their last 21 home games.
- The Bengals are 10-7-1 ATS as home favorites and 13-7 straight up at home.
- The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in the last four of their last five home games.
Totals:
- Nine of the Chargers’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Nineteen of the Chargers’ last 24 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the Chargers’ last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Chargers are 7-2 toward the under this season.
- The Chargers have faced the fewest red-zone scores per game this season (0.8).
- Seven of the Bengals’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Nine of the Bengals’ last 12 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Bengals’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line
- Seven of the Bengals’ last eight home games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of the last seven games between the Bengals and Chargers have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
Shoot out on deck for Sunday Night Football? I think so. Cincinnati has been a game total over machine with their poor run defense and explosive passing offense.
Meanwhile, the Chargers have been one of the league’s stingiest defenses, allowing the fewest points per game through 10 weeks. According to Next Gen Stats, they are the fourth team in the last 40 seasons to allow 20 or fewer points in each of their first nine games of a season.
But, interestingly, top defenses haven't slowed down Joe Burrow. Burrow is 7-2 with 17 passing TDs & 1 INT against top 5 scoring defenses since 2021 (including playoffs, per Next Gen Stats).
Given that the Chargers haven't played an offense like the Bengals all season, this will be the ultimate litmus test.
And therefore, I love the over in this game. LAC is so overdue for a game to shootout in the dome, and Cincy's defense represents the exact ingredients for that recipe to play out.
Sometimes, it's as simple as betting on a quarterback matchup between two of the best and youngest signal-callers: Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow.
The stats also back it up. I believe the Chargers will be forced to air it out because Cincy's run defense has improved with healthy bodies on their defensive line. In fact, according to Next Gen Stats, the Bengals have allowed a top-5 lowest explosive run rate this season. 6th in fewest yards per carry allowed. The Bengals have also allowed the 4th-fewest yards before contact per carry (1.04) and they have missed a tackle on just 11.1% of their tackle opportunities this season, the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.
No defense has played better against Derrick Henry than the Bengals this season. For the last four weeks, the Bengals have allowed the third-fewest points per game to opposing RBs.
J.K. Dobbins has rushed for 57.5 yards once in his last four games and just twice since Week 2. According to Next Gen Stats, after leading the NFL in rushing yards over expected through the first two weeks of the season (+139), Dobbins has generated -47 RYOE since Week 3, the 5th-fewest in the NFL. With Gus Edwards back in the fold, Dobbins will be hard-pressed to hit this number.
I also think Edwards' TD odds are way off. Getting +260 for a goal-line back on a favored team at home is too good to pass up. He led the Chargers in red-zone carries last week (four). In just five games, he has nine red-zone carries but zero TDs. And +1500 for a first TD? Child, please.
If the Chargers can't run, then they will have to throw. And when they have passed this season, it's been for explosive chunk gains.
Herbert has attempted a deep pass (20+ air yards) on 12.0% of his attempts this season, the 5th-highest rate in the NFL. Herbert has used play action on 32.0% of dropbacks this season, the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and the highest rate in his career.
Sit back and watch the points pour in on Sunday Night Football. As for the sides, I can't bet against my Bengals as road underdogs. Burrow is so good ATS after a loss, and they've been great bets on the road as underdogs. 15-6 ATS on the road and 6-3 (58%) as road underdogs against the number. They’ve been underdogs thrice this season (against Baltimore twice and KC), covering all three games.
Props:
Ja'Marr Chase has been much more effective against zone coverage compared to man coverage this season, recording league-highs in receiving yards (795), receiving yards over expected (+323), YAC over expected (+193), and touchdowns (7) against zone.
Chase has generated 3.2 yards per route against zone in 2024 (5th-most, min. 75 such routes) but just 1.5 yards per route against man (25th, min. 75 such routes). The Chargers have used zone coverage at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL this season (83.7%).
The Bengals have allowed an open target (3+ yards of separation) at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL this season but have allowed just 7.5 yards per attempt to such targets, the 3rd-fewest in the league. Justin Herbert has targeted an open receiver on 42.8% of his pass attempts in 2024, the 11th-lowest rate in the league.
The Chargers offense has dialed up a more pass-happy approach since Week 5. They are +1% pass rate over expectation since Week 5.
Five of the last eight RBs to face the Chargers have exceeded their rushing projection, with them all hitting at least 64 rushing yards.
The last eight tight ends the Bengals have faced this season have gone OVER their reception prop. Will Dissly has at least four catches in five of his last six games.
The Bengals have been the worst defense against No. 2 WRs this season, allowing the most targets to the position. Joshua Palmer is my sneaky WR target in this spot for an over. He has 36-plus receiving yards in six straight games.
My Picks: