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NFL Week 12 Anytime TD Scorer Picks & Predictions (2024)

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Last week was a great one in the land of Anytime Touchdown (ATD) and First Touchdown (FTD) bets. I went 6-5 overall on ATD plays and hit three of my four longest shots. Two of those also scored the first touchdown in their respective games. The overall result was an ROI of over 50 percent for the week. Let's see if we can stay hot with this week's selections. Below are ATD and FTD picks for all 10 games on the Week 12 Sunday slate.

As a reminder, I am tracking these using bet sizes of 0.4 units on ATD and 0.1 units on FTD. Whether you play one or all of them, use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week’s best bets.

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Best NFL Week 12 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets

All wagers are 0.5 units

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets

Who will score a touchdown in this week's NFL Games? The Anytime TD market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the QB who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today's best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers

Kareem Hunt (RB - KC)

My two favorite ATD/FTD picks for this game are Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce. I decided to go with Hunt once the Chiefs ruled Isiah Pacheco out for Sunday's contest. Without Pacheco to contend with, Hunt should get all the work he can handle. The Chiefs have given Hunt 14 carries inside their opponents' five-yard line in just the last five games. Hunt has not exactly been efficient with those opportunities, but he has scored in three of those five games. Of course, the chances of the veteran scoring are likely to increase versus Carolina. The Panthers have allowed the most touchdowns and second-most yards to opposing running backs this season. Kansas City also enters this meeting as a double-digit favorite. A positive game script and an elite matchup should allow Kareem Hunt to score at least one touchdown on Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Aaron Jones (RB - MIN)

I am going back to the well with Aaron Jones, even though he missed for me last week. The matchup is too favorable for me to pass up. This week the Minnesota Vikings face the Bears. Chicago is a run-funnel defense, which should benefit Jones here. The Bears enter Week 12 ranking 31st in the NFL in DVOA versus the run, but they are ninth in the league in DVOA against the pass. They have been especially vulnerable to running back production in recent weeks. Chicago has allowed 680 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns to opposing backs in their last four games. This should lend itself to the Vikings leaning on the run game when they get close to the goal line. That makes Aaron Jones an excellent candidate to score a touchdown this week.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders

Austin Ekeler (RB - WAS)

This game projects to be a one-sided affair, so there isn't much reason to fade Washington here. The question is which Commander to invest in. Dallas has allowed 14 touchdowns to opposing backs, so that feels like the best path to success. What is interesting to me is how Washington splits up their carries down by the goal line. This season, primary running back Brian Robinson Jr. has 16 opportunities inside the opponents' 10-yard line, while quarterback Jayden Daniels has 11, but Austin Ekeler is also heavily involved. Ekeler has earned 12 opportunities inside the 10-yard line this season. Robinson has seven touchdowns this year, while Daniels and Ekeler each have four. I do not mind playing Robinson or Daniels, but Ekeler's odds are better than the other two Commanders. Therefore, I am willing to bet that Austin Ekeler scores in this game.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Jonnu Smith (TE - MIA)

Jonnu Smith was my best ATD/FTD hit last week, paying off at +300 for a score and +1300 for the first touchdown. I am running it back with Smith again in Week 12. Smith gets another favorable draw when Miami hosts the New England Patriots. New England enters this game ranked 31st in the NFL in DVOA versus the pass. They have struggled of late to contain passing production, especially against tight ends. The Patriots have allowed three tight ends to score in their last four games. Two of the three scored in the first quarter, with one being the game's first touchdown. The players who scored (Tyler Conklin, Nick Vannett, and Colby Parkinson) are not exactly the crème of the crop at the position. Given Smith's recent production and the favorable matchup, this is one of my favorite value bets on this week's board.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Nico Collins (WR - HOU)

I like the matchup for Houston running back Joe Mixon here. However, his recent exploits have resulted in sportsbooks pricing his touchdown props out of my preferred range. The cheapest price I found for a Mixon touchdown is -208 at BetMGM. His best FTD price is +285 on BetRivers. Considering the pricing and Tennessee's top-10 run defense, I just cannot get behind Mixon this week. Instead, I am pivoting to Nico Collins, who has scored in 10-of-13 home games since the beginning of last season. He also should benefit from Tennessee's pass-funnel defense. Collins had a long touchdown pass negated by a penalty on Houston's first play from scrimmage last week. If that touchdown had stood, I think the pricing on Collins' touchdown props would be a lot different this week.

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR - DET)

I can understand wanting to go the contrarian route and picking a player on the Colts. However, I just cannot get there. The Detroit Lions are an absolute juggernaut on offense. They have scored 40 offensive touchdowns in 10 games. Detroit has three different players who have each scored at least nine times already this year. They include running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs as well as wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Colts are an average defense versus the run and pass, so there are no clear advantages there. However, Indianapolis plays a ton of zone coverage, and that is where St. Brown thrives the most. St. Brown averages 2.54 yards per route run versus zone coverage this year. He has scored in eight straight games, and I do not see that streak ending in Week 12.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

Bucky Irving (RB - TB)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants both limped into last week's bye. Still, it feels like Tampa Bay is in a better position to score as six-point favorites in this matchup. I like running back Bucky Irving to find paydirt in this game. The rookie has earned more rushing opportunities than Rachaad White in recent games. Irving has 29 carries across his last three games, while White has 19. Irving has also averaged 4.86 yards per rush in that span compared to 4.16 for White. I expect that shift to continue in a game the Buccaneers should control. New York has allowed an average of 169.8 rushing yards to opposing running backs in their last four games. Give me all of the Bucky Irving props in Week 12, including his Anytime Touchdown and First Touchdown lines.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

Bo Nix (QB - DEN)

The Las Vegas Raiders have a bottom-five offense and a bottom-10 defense by nearly every significant metric. Because of that, it stands to reason that we back the Broncos here. Their defense is elite and their offense has vastly improved in recent weeks. However, Denver's running back pecking order appears very much in question these days. Javonte Williams has earned 32 total opportunities in Denver's last three games. Audric Estime has 28, while Jaleel McLaughlin has 14. Meanwhile, quarterback Bo Nix enters Week 12 leading the team with four rushing touchdowns on the year. He ran for a score the last time these two teams met. Only five teams have allowed quarterbacks to run for more touchdowns than Las Vegas has this season. This feels like a solid bet considering the data involved as well as Nix's ATD and FTD prices.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

Christian McCaffrey (RB - SF)

I am not complaining, but it is interesting to see the books be so results-oriented with some of their ATD and FTD pricing. That seems to be working against us with a player like Joe Mixon, but it could work in our favor in the case of 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey has been in the neighborhood of -200 to score a touchdown for what feels like two years running now. But this week, we can get him at -135 on DraftKings. That appears to be because McCaffrey has not scored in either of his two games since returning to action, but it is not as if his workload has changed.

McCaffrey has earned 44 total opportunities in the two games he has played this year. He has been on the field for 90.6 percent of offensive snaps in that span. It just so happens that San Francisco has not had many chances by the goal line in those two games. They have only scored four total touchdowns in those two outings. If the 49ers can solve their red-zone woes against Green Bay this week, McCaffrey should be able to find the end zone on Sunday. If he does, enjoy this price while you can, because he will probably be closer to -200 to score again next week.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR - ARI)

The Arizona Cardinals have scored at least 28 points in three straight games. Rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has scored a touchdown in two of those three contests. Harrison has now scored six total touchdowns in 10 NFL games. I think he has an excellent chance to add to that number when the Cardinals face the Seattle Seahawks in Week 12. Seattle has been a league-average defense in most metrics, but they have been prone to allowing touchdown production to opposing wideouts. Seattle has given up 11 touchdowns to the wide receiver position this year. That is tied for the eighth-most in the league. Harrison has half of Arizona's receiving touchdowns this season and he should be the primary beneficiary if Arizona can have success through the air on Sunday afternoon.

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