NFL Week 12 Monday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (Ravens vs. Chargers)
Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 12 from BettingPros before our three-game Thanksgiving SLATE in Week 13! I’m Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 12’s Monday Night Football. In this solo MNF edition, we’re laser-focused on the highly anticipated matchup as we continue into the stretch of NFL regular season action. From expert insights on the spread and total to can’t-miss player props, I’ll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay for Monday.
Get ready, folks-it’s time to place those BETS. Let’s dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football.
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Monday Night Primer
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sides:
- The Chargers have won each of their last nine home games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Chargers are 7-3 ATS this season.
- The Chargers have been the first to 15 points in each of their last six games.
- The favorites have covered the spread in nine of the Chargers’ last 10 games.
- The Chargers have lost each of their last nine games as underdogs.
- The Ravens have covered the spread in five of their last nine games.
- Baltimore is 15-6 on the money line as home favorites but just 9-12 ATS as home favorites.
- Baltimore is 14-6 ATS on the road in the last two seasons and 10-5 ATS as a road favorite in their last 15 applicable appearances.
- Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Ravens have covered the spread in each of their last 12 games following a Division loss.
Totals:
- Nine of the Chargers' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Nineteen of the Chargers' last 25 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the Chargers' last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Chargers are 7-3 toward the under this season.
- The Chargers have faced the fewest red-zone scores per game this season (0.8).
- Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (10 of their last 13), but they tended to be against better offenses.
- The Ravens are 9-2 toward the over this season.
- Nine of the Ravens’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The lowest total game they've played in this season has been 34 points (previous low of 45 points).
- The Ravens have gone OVER in 13 of the last 16 games (12 of the previous 18).
- Five of the Ravens' last six road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of the Ravens’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
Some betting trends can be very noisy. But here's one that I think holds a lot of weight.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Ravens have covered the spread in their last 12 games following a Division loss.
Ergo, take whatever happened between the Ravens and Steelers with a grain of salt. Those teams (and AFC North matchups overall) are just a different breed of what should be expected (see the Browns-Steelers snow game in Week 12).
I don't think the Ravens offense will struggle in Week 12, despite how great the Chargers defense has been this season. Note that I liked the over in the LAC-CIN game last week because I felt the Chargers' defense hadn't been tested. They gave up 27 points in their first real test. Joe Burrow was good against top-ranked defenses and showed up. Lamar Jackson will do the same.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Chargers own the NFL's top-scoring defense in 2024, allowing 14.5 points per game. Jackson is 3-0 with a 111.0 passer rating in his career against teams entering that week as the #1 scoring defense.
The Chargers don't stack the box or defend runs under center. That could spell doom for a number of reasons.
Via Next Gen Stats, when running from under center, the Ravens have averaged 5.6 yards per carry, the most in the NFL. The Chargers have allowed the 5th-most yards per carry (4.9) on designed runs from under center this season.
Therefore, I love the over in this game. LAC needs to make up for lost time with all the unders in the last few seasons. I expect another shootout in the dome, and Baltimore's defense represents the exact ingredients that will play out in that recipe.
Sometimes, it’s as simple as betting on a quarterback matchup between two of the best and youngest signal-callers: Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson.
The stats also back it up. I believe the Chargers will be forced to air it out because of the Ravens' great run defense. Sit back and watch the points pour in on Sunday Night Football.
As for the sides, I can’t bet against the Ravens coming off a divisional game loss. Too good on the road as a favorite, and favorites have been on the profitable side of Chargers contests.
John Harbaugh will extend his record to 3-0 against his brother Jim head-to-head.
Props:
According to Next Gen Stats, Ladd McConkey has been a focal point for the Chargers’ offense, leading the team with a 23.8% target share and 29.2% air yard share this season.
McConkey has recorded 2.4 yards per route this season, the 9th-most yards per route among rookie wide receivers with at least 100 routes since 2018. McConkey has also converted a first down on 12.3% of his routes, the 3rd-highest rate among those same rookies.
Will Dissly has at least four catches in six of his last seven games. The Ravens have been susceptible to plays over the middle third of the field - hence their porous numbers against tight ends this season.
Justin Herbert has recorded 279+ passing yards in four of the Chargers’ last five games.
Lamar Jackson has recorded 280+ passing yards in six of the Ravens’ last seven games.
I think Gus Edwards’ TD odds are way off. Getting +490 for an isolated goal-line back on a high-powered offense at home against this OLD TEAM is too good to pass up. Two weeks back, he led the Chargers in red-zone carries (four).
In just six games, he has 11 red zone carries but zero TDs. The only reason I won't go for the first TD is because it's also a revenge game for J.K. Dobbins. I don’t think there are many other matchups where both teams would be happy with a Dobbins touchdown (heavy juice at -210 for anytime TD).
Rashod Bateman is a big-play threat and can go over his receiving yards prop on one play. He should see volume, given the matchup versus the Chargers, who rank sixth in yards per game allowed and 31st in DVOA to No. 2 WRs.
Three weeks ago was the first time Bateman didn't exceed at least 28 yards when he caught at least two passes. Bateman would be on a streak of six straight overs had it not been for drops in two of his last four games. Keep betting the overs. The Chargers rank 29th in EPA/attempt allowed on passes thrown 20-plus air yards this season.
According to Next Gen Stats...the Chargers defense has aligned with a light box (6 or fewer defenders in the box) on a league-high 82.1% of their snaps and they have aligned with a loaded box (more defenders than blockers in the box) on only 27.2% of their snaps this season, the lowest rate in the league and the only team below 30% alignment.
They have been effective from light boxes, allowing the 10th-fewest yards per carry (4.8) in the NFL. However, Lamar Jackson has scrambled 34 times this season, 24 of which occurred against light boxes (70.6%). Jackson has gained 213 yards on those 24 scrambles and a league-leading +65 rushing yards over expected on lightbox scrambles.
Both the BettingPros projections (47.7) and NFL pro projections (55.2) heavily weigh the over on Jackson's rushing prop set at 43.5 yards.
The Ravens QB has averaged 53.1 rushing yards per game this season, and he's 8-0 OVER 40.5 rushing yards in his last eight road games (6-0 this season).
My Picks: