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NFL Week 12 Sunday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (Rams vs. Eagles)

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Welcome to the final NFL betting article for the Week 12 NFL Sunday Slate from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 12's Sunday Night Football nightcap matchup between the Rams House and Fly Eagles Fly. In this standalone SNF breakdown, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated showdown as we hit the second half of the NFL regular season. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to build off your earlier winnings and/or chase your losses from the early slate of games.

Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Sunday Night Football.

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Sunday Night Football Primer

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams

Sides

  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 11 of the Eagles' last 15 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 17 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last 12 games as favorites.
  • The Eagles are 4-12-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season.
  • They covered just three spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • But at home in their last 23 games – 13-10 ATS as home favorites
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last nine road games.
  • Philadelphia ATS on the road: 7-12-1.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 10 games.
  • The Rams 2023 starters are 3-10 as underdogs straight up. 2-4 as underdogs this season (3-3 ATS) after their massive wins against the 49ers and the Vikings.
  • The favorites have won 18 of the Rams’ last 21 games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in five of the Rams’ last six games.
  • The Rams have won seven of their last nine home games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in each of the Rams’ last five home games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in five of their last six games as road favorites.

Totals:

  • The Eagles are 13-15 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 5-11 toward the over on the road.
  • Eight of the Eagles' last 10 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 8-4 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023. They are 1-3 toward the over at home this season.
  • Nine of the Rams’ last 16 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Rams are 12-11 toward the O/U in their last 23 games.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only seven times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense. They allowed over 300 yards of offense to the Raiders in Week 7. Miami only generated 238 yards against them on Monday Night Football, but they yielded 382 yards of offense to the Patriots in Week 11.
  • Four of the Rams' last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Both defenses have top 10 red-zone defenses this season.

Overall:

After a rocky start to the season, the Eagles have won each of their last six games.

The birds are "flying high" with their sights set on a potential No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Meanwhile, the Rams have found their footing, and the team's health has improved. They have won four of their last five games.

According to Next Gen Stats, Matthew Stafford has thrown for the 3rd-most yards (628) and tied for the 2nd-most touchdowns (7) while generating the 2nd-most EPA (+29.5) on 10+ air yard passes since both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned to the lineup in Week 8. Stafford generated just -0.2 EPA on downfield passes in Week 2-7, 39th in the NFL.

This is an intriguing matchup because of the chess match between the Eagles defense and Rams offense. Vic Fangio’s defense against a Sean McVay offense. Should be a fun contest regardless of the outcome.

Philly's dominated since the bye week with the No. 1 defense and No. 1 rushing attack.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Eagles have a +1,069 total yards margin since Week 6. They are the only team over +500 in that span.

Ultimately, this game comes down to the Rams' ability to prevent pressure on Stafford.

And Philly's defense hasn't necessarily been an elite pass-rushing unit.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Eagles have generated the 8th-lowest pressure rate in the league this season (31.1%) but have recorded the 4th-fastest average time to pressure (2.56 seconds).

When creating pressure, the Eagles have converted 24.8% of their pressures into sacks, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL. The Rams have allowed pressure in 2.51 seconds on average in 2024, the quickest in the league. However, in the last two games, the Rams have gotten some of their OL pieces back in the fold.

I should note that Philly has been on the favorable side of variance in close games this season (5-1), so they might be “due” for a let-down in a tight game.

Given the trends, it's still hard to not favor the red-hot Eagles as slight road favorites. We know that the Rams' don't really have home-field advantage, and they tend to not perform great as underdogs with favorites dominating their games.

The Eagles should be able to handily run the ball and take their shots downfield when they need to.

The Rams rank 31st in EPA/attempt against downfield throws. A.J. Brown WR1 szn? We are back.  I know we've been on a cold streak for AJB overs, but (0-2) but this man won't let us fall to 0-3.

I'll take the Eagles -2.5.

Like last week (which worked), I'd also like sprinkle some live betting on Philly. I hope they get down to start and then get them at a better number, given how they traditionally start slow. In fact, both teams don't score points early on.

We could see some "feeler" looks from both teams before any scoring happens. Under 23.5 points, you can bet at plus money for the first half (+102).

But my favorite play has to be on the game total UNDER (shocker).

Eight of the Eagles' last 10 road games have gone UNDER the total points line. Four of the Rams' last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.

A 48.5-point total suggests a clear shootout, but a run-heavy Eagles team paired with a top-notch defense says otherwise. Eagles WR DeVonta Smith also seems very unlikely to play, taking another element of this game flying OVER the total.

Although Smith being out is a nod toward betting over on Dallas Goedert's 41.5 receiving yards. Every tight end the Rams have faced have exceed their yards projection since Week 2.

Props:

Matthew Stafford has recorded 279+ passing yards in each of the Rams’ last four games (since his WRs returned to the lineup).

Kyren Williams hasn't seen quite his usual workload the last couple of weeks, with just 15 carries in back-to-back games. Blake Corum is getting a bit more involved, as are the Rams WRs.

In fact, Williams' touches have dropped in four straight games. Therefore, take the under on his rushing yards set at 74.5 yards; he has gone under in two of his last three games. The Eagles have not allowed any 70-yard rushers since their bye week.

Kenneth Gainwell, man. This guy always seems to get a decent chunk of red-zone looks seemingly every week for no reason. Nick Sirianni has always been a pro-Kenny G guy (famously wore a Gainwell t-shirt a few years back), so I love taking his long-shot odds to score a TD at +700. He has nine red-zone opportunities this season with zero TDs. Something has to give.

My Picks:

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