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NFL Week 13 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

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Introducing the Week 13 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the remaining Week 13 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 13 games on Sunday. Note that the Sunday night and Monday night games will be getting their own dedicated articles.

NFL Week 13 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • Seahawks -1
  • Rams -2.5
  • Buccaneers -6
  • Commanders -6

Top Underdogs:

  • Steelers +3
  • Jaguars +3.5

Top Totals:

  • LAC/ATL under 47.5
  • NE/IND over 42.5
  • LAR/NO under 49.5

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Sides

  • The Steelers have won 11 of their last 15 games.
  • The Steelers are 14-8 ATS on the road.
  • The Steelers are 7-6 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
  • The Steelers are 7-5 as home favorites ATS.
  • The Steelers have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
  • In five of the Steelers’ last six games, the first score has been a Steelers Field Goal.
  • As road favorites, the Steelers are 5-3 ATS
  • Joe Burrow is 19-10 against the spread following a loss. Joey Covers.
  • The Bengals are 15-7 ATS on the road.
  • The Bengals have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games against teams with losing records.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games against AFC North opponents.
  • The Bengals have won 14 of their last 21 home games.
  • The Bengals are 10-7-1 ATS as home favorites and 13-7 straight up at home.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in the last four of their last five home games.

Totals:

  • The Steelers are 5-6 toward the under this season. 2-3 O/U at home this season (41 points per game).
  • Five of the Steelers' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Steelers’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Steelers' last 16 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Bengals' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Bengals' last 12 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • 13 of the Bengals' last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line
  • Seven of the Bengals' last eight home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the Bengals’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Cincy is 4-1 toward the over at home, with games averaging 59 points per game.

Overall:

Why are the 4-7 Bengals favorites in this spot? I'd presume it's because they are playing at home, but that hardly makes them a confident bet. The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five home games (1-4 straight up).

After last week's collapse against the Browns in snowy weather during Thursday night’s game, this is a classic bounce-back spot for the Steelers. Mike Tomlin is 60% ATS as a road underdog in his last 15 games, and his reputation as a great underdog bet is well known.

Meanwhile, the Bengals have struggled in AFC North matchups. The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games against AFC North opponents. They are 3-0 ATS in the division this season. But against Pittsburgh, they are 1-3 ATS in the last four matchups since 2022.

The Steelers are 4-2 on the road overall this season and ATS.

As for the game total, I think the over is strongly in play. Both teams have been trending for game-overs. In the last five matchups between these teams, the games are 4-1 toward the over. 3-0 toward the over with Burrow under center for the Bengals.

As we saw when the Bengals played the Chargers back in Week 11, top defenses don't slow down Burrow.

Props:

For the last four weeks, the Bengals have allowed the 7th-fewest points per game to opposing RBs. In fact, according to Next Gen Stats, the Bengals have allowed a top-5 lowest explosive run rate this season. No defense has played better against Derrick Henry than the Bengals this season.

Najee Harris is under 57.5 rushing yards in two of his last three games. His carries have decreased in three straight games since Jaylen Warren has returned to the lineup and gotten healthy. The last four RBs (not named Henry or Saquon Barkley) have all finished UNDER their rushing yards prop versus the Bengals.

The last nine tight ends the Bengals have faced this season have gone OVER their reception prop. They rank fifth in yards per game to TEs this season.

Darnell Washington has also gone more than 10.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games. Take the over and the anytime TD odds at +550. The Bengals have allowed the second-most receiving TDs to tight ends this season.

The Bengals have been the worst defense against No. 2 WRs this season, allowing the most targets to the position.

Russell Wilson has recorded 186+ passing yards in each of his last nine appearances.

Joe Burrow is projected to throw closer to 270 passing yards than 260 passing yards this week, which is where his Week 13 prop lies.

My Picks:

Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons

Sides

  • The Chargers have won each of their last nine home games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Chargers are 7-4 ATS this season.
  • The Chargers have been the first to 15 points in each of their last seven games.
  • The Chargers have scored first in each of their last five road games.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in 10 of the Chargers' last 11 games.
  • The Chargers have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs.
  • Their opponents have scored first in six of the Falcons' last seven games.
  • The Falcons are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games as underdogs and 10-5 as home favorites on the money line.
  • The Falcons are 10-16-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing at 8-6 straight up.
  • The underdogs have won 12 of the Falcons' last 23 games.
  • The Falcons are 5-7 ATS on the road, 3-5 ATS as road favorites, and 6-14 on the road straight up.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 13 games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • The Falcons have won six of their last 10 games.
  • Atlanta is 10-5 on the money line as home favorites (15-9 at home overall).
  • The Falcons, as a home favorite, are 6-9 ATS.
  • The Falcons have won seven of their last nine games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 games against AFC opponents.

Totals

  • Nine of the Chargers’ last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nineteen of the Chargers’ last 26 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Chargers’ last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers are 7-4 toward the under this season.
  • The Chargers have faced the fewest red-zone scores per game this season (0.8).
  • The Falcons are 4-7 O/U this season.
  • Five of the Falcons' last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Atlanta is 2-3 O/U on the road this season, with games averaging fewer than 50 points.
  • At home, they are 2-4 O/U, averaging 46.5 points per game.
  • Four of the Falcons' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

The overall optics of this matchup don't play kindly toward the Los Angeles Chargers. They are a West Coast team coming off a Monday night football loss that has to travel to the East Coast for a 1 p.m. kickoff against the Atlanta Falcons, who are coming off their bye week.

The Chargers also will be without their star RB J.K. Dobbins, after he suffered a knee injury against the Baltimore Ravens.

If this was a non-Jim Harbaugh-coached Chargers team, this would be an easy bet on the Falcons catching 1 point at home. But Harbaugh's coaching impact cannot be undersold, even under less-than-ideal circumstances for the Bolts.

Because he still has Justin Herbert, and that gives him more than enough to win this game against the Falcons’ defense that cannot generate any kind of pressure.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Falcons have generated pressure on just 26.3% of dropbacks, the 4th-lowest pressure rate by a defense since 2018.

Through Week 12, the Falcons are one of only four teams to have only one pass rusher with at least 20 pressures (Kaden Ellis, 21). Justin Herbert is the only quarterback who has not thrown an interception when not pressured. On such dropbacks, Herbert has recorded 8.5 yards per attempt (7th-most) and has generated +0.29 EPA per dropback (10th-most).

The Falcons are a bottom-10 defense in any way you slice the data.

Even though the Falcons play better at home, I don't love them as underdogs. They are 1-2 ATS as underdogs this season, and favorites tend to prevail in Chargers games. The Chargers are 87.5% ATS as the favorite this season. The Falcons as underdogs: 33%.

However, I think my favorite play is on the total, going under 47.5 points.

Ten of the Chargers’ last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line. These teams are a combined 14-8 toward the under this season, with games averaging a combined 42.5 points per game.

We know Atlanta likes to run the football, and the Chargers lack top-tier skill players (outside their QB) to push this game over 48 points by themselves.

Note that the last time Cousins-Herbert faced off, the game total closed at 53 points, but it fell just one point short of cashing the over.

If I were to make a live wager in this game, I'd likely take Atlanta with a greater point spread should they fall behind early.

Props:

Bijan Robinson has five straight games with at least 28 receiving yards.

The Chargers don’t stack the box or defend runs under center. Atlanta has the eighth-highest success rate rushing from under center and the 11th-highest against light boxes.

All but one running back the Falcons have faced has gone OVER their rushing yardage prop this season (70-plus yards in all but one game).

The Chargers rank 29th in EPA/attempt allowed on passes thrown 20-plus air yards this season.

For a longshot TD bet, look at running back Kimani Vidal. The Falcons have allowed the third-most receptions to RBs this season. Vidal is a rookie but will likely inherit some pass-catching duties with Dobbins out. He scored in his first game on a wheel route. Also, there is no guarantee that he will remain RB3 on the depth chart behind Hassan Haskins. I like the TD odds at 4-1.

My Picks:

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sides:

  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 13 games and are 5-7 ATS this season.
  • The Texans are 7-14 ATS in their last 21 games as favorites (7-12 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
  • Twelve of their last 16 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • Houston is just 15-14 against the spread over its last 29 games.
  • Houston is 3-4 as road favorites. 6-11-1 ATS as a favorite.
  • HOU is 10-5-1 ATS as a road underdog (70%) and 3-6-1 ATS as home favorites.
  • The Texans have won six of their last eight home games.
  • The Texans have covered the spread in their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
  • They are 9-19-1 ATS as underdogs, while 6-7 ATS (45%) as home underdogs ATS.
  • The Texans have scored first in each of their last seven games.
  • The Texans have won the first half in eight of their last nine games.
  • In each of the Texans’ last four games, the first score has been a Texans Touchdown.
  • The road team has covered the spread in the last six games between the Texans and Jaguars.
  • The Jaguars have lost 14 of their last 17 games.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in 13 of their last 19 road games (not in Jacksonville).
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 17 games.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-5 overall as a favorite, dating back to last season. They are just 2-12 as an underdog since the start of last season.
  • The Jaguars have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs.
  • ATS they are 7-2 as a home underdog and 5-4 on the money line.
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as home underdogs dating back to last season (although it does depend on the final closing line).

Totals:

  • The Texans have gone under in 19 of their last 31 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • Houston is 4-8 O/U this season. Eight of the Texans’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line. 1-5 O/U at home (41.5 points per game).
  • According to DraftKings Sportsbook, seven of the Texans’ last eight games as home favorites have all ended UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Texans’ last eight games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Jaguars' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 2-2 toward the over at home (44.5 points per game).
  • Seven of the Jaguars’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Jags' last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in eight of their last 19 games.
  • Jacksonville scored 30 or more points five times since 2023. Three of those games came against the Colts.
  • Six of the Jaguars’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall

I feel strongly about the Jaguars losing this game against the Houston Texans. But will they cover with Trevor Lawrence likely returning? I do not think so.

The favored Texans can't be trusted anywhere near a betting spread since the start of last season. 6-11-1 as a favorite (35%).

But the Jaguars - oh baby - 7-2 ATS as home underdogs.

Continue to fade the overrated Texans and back the home team with Lawrence under center.

Note that when these teams first met in Week 4, nobody gave the Jags any chance. Both teams were coming off horrible Week 3 losses, but the line was Houston -6.

The Jaguars covered but lost 24-20. But it took a COMEBACK win for the Texans to win with a touchdown with 22 seconds remaining.

After scoring on three of their first four drives, the Texans punted five straight times in the second half before scoring the game-winning touchdown.

I opened this breakdown assuming the Texans would win, but now I'm not nearly as convinced. An upset special might be brewing in the AFC South this weekend. My only reservation is the Honolulu flu trend. Teams the game after they face the Lions (including off bye weeks) have yet to cover the spread this season.

As for the total, this must be an over spot in a get-right game for Houston's offense. Six of the Jaguars’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.

The Week 4 matchup totaled 44 points, and C.J. Stroud has posted bonkers numbers against this Jags defense in his short NFL career.

Stroud's best fantasy game this season came against the Jaguars back in Week 4. 345 passing yards. He has 20-plus fantasy points in three career games against the Jags.

Part of his success? Tank Dell. Dell scored in both games against the Jaguars last season.

Props:

Nico Collins now. Nico Collins Sunday. Nico Collins forever.

Collins has gone over 80.5 receiving yards in all of his games played this season with a full allotment of snaps.  He has over 100 yards in his last games against the Jaguars dating back to last season.

Houston is No. 2 in DVOA versus tight ends this season. They have also allowed the fewest catches to the position. If it ain’t broke…don’t fix it. Therefore, I expect fewer targets for Evan Engram and more for the Jaguars WRs.

How will the Jaguars attack the Texans? With the deep ball. The Texans have faced the second-most deep targets this season. Brian Thomas Jr. went for 86 yards the last time he faced Houston this season. He also is 4-0 toward the over in home games played with Lawrence this season, posting no less than 60 receiving yards in any contest.

My Picks:

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 20 of the Colts’ last 24 games.
  • The Colts are 2-1 ATS as favorites this season
  • They are 6-3 ATS as an underdog (3-6 overall).
  • The Colts are 8-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
  • The Colts have lost five of their last seven road games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against AFC opponents.
  • The Patriots have lost 13 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games.
  • The Patriots have lost 11 of their last 14 games.
  • As road underdogs, the Patriots are 47.5% ATS (8-10) and sub-50% ATS on the road in their last 22 road contests.

Totals:

  • Eleven of the last 17 Patriots’ games have gone OVER the projected game total.
  • Six of the Patriots’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Patriots’ defense has allowed 300-plus yards in nine of 12 games this season. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
  • New England is 14-15 toward the under in its last 29 games and 5-7 this season.
  • They are 4-1 toward the over at home (45.4 points per game).
  • Six of the last nine Colts’ games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Colts’ last 14 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Only 4x has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (ten starts), with seven or fewer points in four contests.
  • With Richardson at QB this season, the Colts are 2-5 toward the over this season (1-5 toward the under in the last six games).
  • The Colts have scored last in six of their last seven games.
  • With Joe Flacco, 3-2 O/U (last three games 2-1).
  • The Colts are 5-2 toward the under in their last seven games.

Overall:

I will be in attendance for this game, cheering on my Patriots in what I hope will be a fun game to witness. Obviously, there's no better way to enjoy the festivities than with more action on the line.

I do my best to take out my fandom when it comes to betting on the Patriots, so I am likely shying away from the sides. Although the trends heavily suggest that the Colts are the sharp play as road favorites. But as my BettingPros colleague Terrel Furman reminded me, the Lions hangover is in play. No team has covered the spread the week after playing the Lions this season.

The Patriots' defense is not good by any means, so we "should" see the better version of Anthony Richardson.

The Patriots are one of the worst teams at generating a pass rush, and they play a ton of man coverage. This is the perfect recipe for huge downfield plays from Richardson, paired with his legs against New England's man-heavy defense.

Combine that with a bad run defense, and I think Indy will light up the scoreboard after they struggled to convert in the red zone last week.

But my favorite bet is one that I have been on a lot for Patriots games in recent weeks...the game total over 42.5.

Before last week's abysmal performance in Miami (where the Patriots always play badly), New England’s offense hit season-highs in yards in back-to-back weeks. Patriots games have hit at least 47 points in four of their last six games.

And because the Colts tend to play in close games (also suggested by the 2.5-point spread) we should see some fun back-and-forth action.  All but one Patriots home game this season has failed to go over the projected game total. And that was between Tyler Huntley and Jacoby Brissett.

The Patriots are 3-0 toward the over at home, with Drake Maye at QB.

Props:

Josh Downs is not going to play and Michael Pittman Jr. is not 100%. Very tough for MPJ given he will likely draw shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez. This leaves Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell as the two main receivers that should see plenty of volume against a horrible Patriots defense.

Last week, Pierce had one big catch for 39 yards on four targets, showcasing his deep-threat ability. But, like in almost every single Pierce outing, the box score does not tell the whole story. He had 123 air yards - good for a 35% air yards share.

Mitchell caught one of three targets for 10 yards (12% Target share). He only ran a route on 31% of the dropbacks, so he was once again hyper-targeted (33% target rate per route run). He should have scored last week and had another red-zone target. He has just as many red-zone targets as Pierce despite playing fewer snaps this season.

Considering how bad the Patriots' defense is, Mitchell could be set up nicely with Downs out. The rookie has a 30.5% target rate per route run this season.

Only two QBs all season have failed to hit 180 passing yards against the Patriots' defense this season.

Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is comically low this week. The Colts have allowed over 100 rushing yards per game over the last four weeks. No starting RB that has faced the Colts has finished with fewer than 64 yards since Week 5.

My Pick:

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings

Sides

  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in nine of their last 13 games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven of their last nine road games.
  • The Cardinals have lost eight of their last 12 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Cardinals had lost each of their last 12 games following a win before Week 8.
  • Per Next Gen Stats, Arizona didn’t have back-to-back wins in 46 games, with their last winning streak coming in Weeks 11-13, 2021. A new streak has begun, with them winning their last four games in a row. It broke last week versus Seattle.
  • And that’s despite them trailing in all contests to start the games (including last week).
  • In eight of the last 10 games between the Cardinals and Vikings, the first score has been a Vikings Touchdown.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 17 games. They are 7-4 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
  • The Vikings are 7-4-2 ATS as road favorites.
  • As home favorites, the Vikings are 10-4 on the money line (69%) but just 6-9 ATS (40%). They have dropped seven of their last eight home games ATS as a favorite.
  • All but six of the Vikings' last 25 games have been decided by eight points or less (75%).
  • The Vikings have won the first quarter in eight of their last 11 games.

Totals:

  • The Cardinals have been an under-machine on the road since the start of 2023 (4-8-1).
  • However, this season has mostly been a different story. The Cardinals’ road games have totaled 52, 57, 47, 55 points, including last week's 22-point dud.
  • They are “only” 2-2-1 toward the over on the road, but three points are the difference between a 4-1 record toward the over.
  • Nine of the Cardinals' last 14 home games have gone OVER the total points line (2-4 O/U) this season, averaging 42 points per game.
  • Nine of the Cardinals' last 12 Sunday home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Vikings’ last 14 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Vikings' last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Vikings are 7-4 toward the under this season. 3-1 toward the under at home this season, averaging under 44 points per game.
  • Teams averaged over 43.8 points in Minnesota this season.
  • The Vikings are 3-9-1 toward the over in Minnesota since the start of 2023.
  • Each of the last four games between the Cardinals and Vikings has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

A terrible run-out last week from Arizona. I loved the game total to go over, and it completely fizzled out. But was I just a week too early? Ask any Kyler Murray fantasy manager, and they will tell you how inconsistent the Cardinals QB has been. What's worse is that his best performances have been hard to pinpoint. Or have they?

Almost all of Murray's great games have been AFTER he has completely flamed out. He has scored 21-plus fantasy points following each game where he scored fewer than 15.

Last week, I think I underrated the potential for an improved Seahawks run defense. If Arizona can't establish any type of run game, they tend to struggle offensively. Arizona is 6-1 ATS when they rush for at least 100 yards this season. Considering the Vikings have the No. 1 run defense in EPA/rush allowed this season, it's hard to have confidence in Arizona having a solid rushing effort.

Minnesota’s “overs” have all been against offenses like the healthy Rams, Lions, and Packers. The Bears game also went over which was a surprise to me. Arizona's offense seems somewhere in the middle.

This game is tough for me to handicap because I was way off both teams last week. Therefore, this is likely a shy-away spot for me.

The only thing I feel confident about is the Vikings opening out to a lead. However, upon further review, both the Cardinals and Vikings rank highly in first-quarter points scored.

Seemingly every trend in this contest seems to contradict the other. The Vikings are bad against the spread at home, while Arizona is great ATS on the road.

Considering we know this game will be close - based on the Vikings track record - I think the best value play is just to take the Cardinals on the ML.

As for the total, I think you have to go under. I don't envision this being a full-blown shootout, but a 24-20 score seems very realistic (total at 45).

Vikings games as favorites, and at home, go toward the under. Arizona Cardinals' games - even though there have been decent point scores - have finished under the total.

Props:

Minnesota usually drives volume from their opponents. Second in passes faced per game this season. Kyler Murray has attempted over 31.5 passes in Arizona's last 3 road games this season. Trey McBride has over 60.5 receiving yards in three straight road games and in three of his last four games overall.

My Picks:

Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders

Sides

  • The Titans have lost 14 of their last 17 road games.
  • The Titans have lost seven of their last nine games as favorites. They are 3-7 ATS as home favorites (30%).
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 15 games.
  • The Titans are 6-8 at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 13 games at Nissan Stadium.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
  • As road underdogs, the Titans are 8-10-1 ATS.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 18 games. They are 7-4 ATS and straight up in their last 11 games.
  • The Commanders have lost eight of their last 13 home games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 14 games as favorites.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with losing records.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with winning records.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in four of their last seven games.
  • The Commanders have won the first half in eight of their last 10 games.
  • The Commanders have scored first in seven of their last eight games.

Totals:

  • The Titans are 15-12-1 toward the under in their last 28 games.
  • Tennessee is 1-3-1 O/U at home this season, averaging under 40 points per game.
  • Seven of the Commanders' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fifteen of the Commanders' last 20 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, nine of the Commanders’ last 10 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 6-3 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 16-4 toward the OVER.
  • The Titans have a 19-point implied team total.
  • The Commanders are 3-3 O/U at home, averaging nearly 47 points per game.
  • Each of the Commanders’ last six games against AFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Can we just pretend that these two teams didn't play these wacky divisional games last week? Because that's where my initial lean is on this contest.

We shouldn't overvalue an extreme outlier performance from the Titans on the road against the overrated Texans. Conversely, we shouldn't over-penalize the Commanders in their loss against Dallas. But they had three turnovers,

Now, that's not to say that this will be a walk in the park for Washington. They definitely have been reeling, and that's reflected in the 5.5-point spread at home despite playing a team that just got its third win of the season.

Tennessee's No. 1 strength is its run defense, and that will make things tough for a banged-up Commanders backfield.

But if I have to just simply bet on Jayden Daniels to win this game by a touchdown against Will Levis on the road? I like my odds.

Before last week, Washington had covered the spread in seven straight games against teams with losing records.

And the Washington defense is still underrated at home. Second-fewest yards per game allowed at home this season. The Cowboys offense converted 2 of 11 third downs last week.

According to Next Gen Stats, Levis has been sacked on 84.6% of his dropbacks longer than 4 seconds, the highest rate in the NFL.

Levis has fared poorly on extended dropbacks (4+ seconds) when not sacked, completing only 1 of his four pass attempts (25.0%) and generating the lowest completion percentage over expected in the NFL on such dropbacks this season (-30.0). The Commanders’ defense has allowed the lowest success rate (14.0%) and generated the sixth-highest pressure rate (82.5%) on opposing team dropbacks that are longer than 4 seconds.

The Titans allowed a 51.4% pressure rate and a season-high eight sacks in Week 12 against the Texans while being blitzed on only 17.1% of their dropbacks.

Titans tackles JC Latham and Nicholas Petit-Frere have allowed a combined 19 sacks this season, the most by any team tackle duo this season (Next Gen Stats).

I think the Commanders win the battles in trenches in what might be an ugly game and lower-scoring game. 20 points is the key number. Tennessee is 3-0 this year when they have scored at least 20 points. 0-9 when they don't. I think Washington's defense holds them under at the number (as does the sportsbooks), giving the Commanders the 6-point cover and game total under 44.5 points.

If you pair the Commanders ML with the Titans' team total UNDER 20.5 points, you get odds at -105 (DraftKings Sportsbook).

Props:

  • N/A

My Picks:

  • Commanders -6
  • Under 44.5

Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets

Sides

  • The favorites have won 21 of the Seahawks' last 26 games.
  • The road team has won six of the Seahawks' last seven games.
  • Seattle is 8-14-1 ATS in their last 23 games played (7-11-1 over the last 17 games).
  • Seattle is 11-3 as a favorite in the last 14 games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games as favorites.
  • The Seahawks are 5-6-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last 12 games.
  • Seattle is 4-5 as home underdogs overall and ATS.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in six of their last 11 games as underdogs.
  • Seattle as a road underdog ATS at 8-8 (50%). As away underdogs on the money line, they are 5-11.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight home games.
  • The Seahawks have lost five of their last eight games.
  • The Jets have lost five of their last six games as favorites.
  • The Jets have lost each of seven of their eight games.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 17 of their last 22 games. 3-8 ATS this season
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games against teams with winning records.
  • In each of the Jets’ last eight games, their opponents have scored last.
  • The Jets have lost their last five road games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games against NFC opponents.

Totals

  • Each of the Seahawks’ last five games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Seahawks' last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Seahawks' last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Seahawks' last 12 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fifteen of the Jets’ last 22 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jets are 3-2-1 toward the over on the road this season.

Overall:

The Jets have lost seven of their last eight games. "Fresh" off the bye week, Breece Hall is on the injury report and is questionable to play. Good grief.

Meanwhile, Seattle is coming off a huge win versus Arizona. They typically win when they are favored, and the tight spread suggests they "should" also be able to cover. Seattle usually isn't a strong bet as a road favorite ATS (1-3-2), but four of those non-covers were spreads of three points or larger.

If you don't want to sweat the spread, it's only -110 to take Seattle on the money line, but I'm cool laying up to two points with the Hawks on the road.

They beat bad teams, and you don't need me to convince you that the Jets are a bad team.

Seattle should be able to run the ball effectively against the Jets, but the passing game might underwhelm on the road. Still, the Jets’ horrible red zone rushing defense should make it easy for Kenneth Walker III to find the end zone. No defense has allowed a higher rate of rushing TDs versus passing TDs than Gang Green. The Jets also rank second in rush rate faced this season, allowing the 11th-highest rushing yards per game and 10th-highest rush EPA/play (10th-most rushes of 10-plus yards).

According to Next Gen Stats, the Jets defenders have generated pressure on 13.4% of pass rushes when aligned as an edge defender, the 6th-highest pressure rate off the edge among all teams.

The Seahawks’ tackles have allowed 123 total pressures off 920 combined pass block snaps (13.4%), the 2nd-highest rate in the league.

As for the total...MetLife Stadium is where points go to die. Whether it's Jets/Giants, New York fans don't get to see points scored. The Jets are 3-2 toward the under at home this season with Seattle coming in "hot" with five straight unders. And this is despite playing teams like Atlanta, Buffalo, Los Angeles, San Fran and Arizona.

The Jets rank 26th in points per game this season (18.5).

Props:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has accumulated 619 receiving yards out of the slot so far this season, the most of any player through 12 weeks in the past three seasons. The Jets defense has allowed only 699 passing yards to players aligned in the slot, the sixth-fewest in the NFL.

New York tied for the 4th-most deep passes face this season.

Last week, DK Metcalf hauled in 4 of 5 targets for 59 yards, averaging 14.8 yards per catch, including a 29-yard reception, with 94 air yards with a whopping 62% air yards share.

My Picks:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Sides:

  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 13 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 16 of their last 21 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 16 of their last 19 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Buccaneers have won six of their last 12 games as underdogs.
  • Tampa is 4-5 ATS as home underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in nine of their last 14 games.
  • The Buccaneers have won seven of their last nine games following a loss.
  • Tampa Bay is 6-3-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 10 games.
  • The underdogs have won seven of the last 18 Buccaneers' games.
  • The Buccaneers are 12-3 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 15 road games.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games as underdogs.
  • Tampa Bay is 3-2 ATS against the NFC South, with the only losses against the Falcons.
  • The Buccaneers have won seven of their last eight games against the Panthers.
  • The Buccaneers have been the first to 10 points in seven of their last eight games against NFC opponents.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Panthers’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Panthers’ last 22 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Panthers’ last 13 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Panthers' last four games at Bank of America Stadium has gone OVER the total points line (4-1 overall record to the over at 49.4 points per game).
  • Six of the Buccaneers' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Tampa Bay is 7-4 O/U this season (4-2 at home, averaging nearly 52 points per game).
  • On defense, they have allowed the ninth-most points per game (24.8) behind Carolina.
  • Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 42 points total at home since 2023 (5-9 record toward the over).

Overall:

The Buccaneers are road warriors. They have covered the spread in 12 of their last 15 road games. In their last nine road games: 7-0-2 ATS.

It's such a strong trend - and credit to Baker Mayfield's mentality - that he doesn't let this team let up in enemy territory.

Can't overlook that the Panthers were once his team, and Tampa Bay can't approach any game lightly. The fact that Carolina came so close to beating KC will have the Buccaneers on notice, especially in a divisional matchup.

How about the total in this game? I think we might get an over 46.5. The last three weeks, these teams are averaging north of 48 points total.

The Panthers (to my happiness) are finally starting to get going offensively.

According to Next Gen Stats, Young completed a career-high four passes into tight windows, one for a touchdown, against the Chiefs in Week 12.

Since he was reinstated as the starter in Week 8, he has generated a +10.2% completion percentage over expected and a 75.7 passer rating when targeting receivers with less than 3 yards of separation, after he had a -7.1% CPOE and a passer rating of 33.4 on these throws prior to Week 8. The Buccaneers have allowed a -0.9% CPOE and a 75.6 passer rating to receivers with less than 3 yards of separation this season.

The former first overall pick had taken on a new life after his benching, and he is taking advantage of it.

The Buccaneers defense can be extremely boom-or-bust, and then have allowed six of their last eight games to go OVER the total. Before the last two weeks, the Bucs were on a six-game streak of overs, three of which were on the road.

Bryce Young is playing with confidence, and I think we might get a fun under-the-radar shootout in this game. Keep in mind that Dave Canales coached under Todd Bowles last season as the Buccaneers offensive coordinator, so there is definitely going to be some familiarity with how he can expose Bowles' aggressive defense.

Props:

Bucky Irving rushed for 74 yards on six carries outside the tackles in Week 12 against the Giants, forcing four missed tackles on those carries.

He now has generated a 49.1% success rate on rushes outside the tackles, the second-highest this season among running backs with at least 50 attempts on such carries. He has forced 34 missed tackles for a 64.2% rate, which is the highest rate by any running back (min. 50 outside rushes) since at least 2018. The Panthers have recorded a 30.9% missed tackle rate against designed runs outside the tackles, the 16th-highest in the NFL. The Panthers defense has also allowed a 46.7% success rate (2nd-highest) and 26 explosive runs (2nd-most) against such plays this season.

Bucky's 18 touches and 52% snap share was the highest he has had all season in a game that White was active in. Irving has taken over at least as the 1A in the Buccaneers backfield.

White isn't totally dead, though, as a fantasy asset. He continues to keep scoring TDs at an unsustainable rate – White has gotten by the last five games with six TDs - but he benefits from all the great matchups Tampa has coming up.

According to Next Gen Stats, Irving rushed 12 times for career highs in rushing yards (87), rushing yards over expected (+48), and yards after contact (98).

His opening rushing yards line is 59.5 rushing yards against the Panthers. Child, please. Every RB not named Kareem Hunt or Zamir White has rushed OVER their projection versus Carolina this season.

The Buccaneers have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.

The Panthers have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.

My Picks:

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

Sides:

  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 11 games.
  • The Rams 2023 starters are 3-11 as underdogs straight up. 2-5 as underdogs this season (3-4 ATS) after their massive wins against the 49ers and the Vikings.
  • The favorites have won 19 of the Rams' last 22 games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in six of the Rams' last seven games.
  • The Rams have won seven of their last 10 home games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in five of their last six games as road favorites.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 13 games.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
  • Their opponents have scored first in eight of the Saints' last 13 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Saints have scored first in each of their last four games.
  • The Saints have lost seven of their last nine games.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games.
  • The Saints are 4-6 ATS as home underdogs (9-14 on the money line as underdogs)
  • As home underdogs, the Saints are 3-7 straight up. Woof.
  • The Saints are 2-6 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in nine of the last 10 home games against AFC opponents.
  • The home team has won nine of the last 10 games between the Rams and Saints.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Rams' last 17 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Rams are 13-11 toward the O/U in their last 24 games.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only seven times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense. They allowed over 300 yards of offense to the Raiders in Week 7. Miami only generated 238 yards against them on Monday Night Football, but they yielded 382 yards of offense to the Patriots in Week 11 and over 480 yards in Week 12 to the Eagles.
  • Four of the Rams’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Both defenses have top 10 red-zone defenses this season.
  • Eight of the Saints' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Saints are 4-2 toward the over at home (48.5 points per game).
  • The Saints have the 6th-best red-zone defense in the NFL (47% conversion rate).

Overall:

The Rams are coming off an absolute spanking against the Eagles on Sunday Night Football, where they had zero answers to stopping Philly's offense. The Rams' achilles heel all season has been their poor run defense and coverage unit.

But I think this is less about the Rams being a bad team and more about how dominant the Eagles are. After all, we know that the Rams’ don’t really have home-field advantage, and they tend not to perform great as underdogs with favorites dominating their games.

The Rams are favored in this contest by 2.5 points, and that shouldn't go unnoticed. They can unsettle Derek Carr in a manner that the last two teams New Orleans faced were unable to do. With pressure.

The Rams have the No. 1 pressure rate in the NFL.

Given that advantage, I love the Rams as road favorites, where they have covered in five of their last six appearances.

I also think the Rams’ offense shouldn't have issues against the Saints’ defense. Since Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned from long-term injuries in Week 8, Matthew Stafford has 1,408 passing yards (most in NFL) and 12 passing touchdowns (tied for 2nd in NFL).

The Saints’ defense has been horrible this season, and that hasn't changed with the interim head coach. They allowed an average of 450-plus yards in the last two weeks.

And they have been particularly horrible against the run, ranking 30th in EPA/rush, allowing the eighth-most yards per game.

The Rams are 5-1 ATS as road favorites (6-0 straight up) in their last six games while the Saints are 3-7 as home underdogs on the money line. I don't think the Saints will win, and that means they likely won't cover the +2.5.

As for the total, this is a massive number at 49.5 points. But I feel like this is more about two bad defenses than two elite offenses. And where these defenses have been above average is in the red zone. Very high chance we get high yardage totals, but more field goals than touchdowns.

Until last week, every single Rams game that closed at 48.5 points or higher finished under the total (four games). New Orleans has had games close at 47.5 and 49.5, both of which finished under the total.

Can't help but think we might be left just a tad bit disappointed in this spot.

Props:

The Rams rank 31st in EPA/attempt against downfield throws. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has 87 or more yards in his two games with the Saints and might be in for a three-peat regarding his receiving yards prop.

All but one tight end the Rams have faced have exceeded their yards projection since Week 2. When then Taysom Hill props drop...you strike! Over 29.5 receiving yards in three straight games (36-plus in each game).

Given the Rams’ weaknesses against tight ends, look at Foster Moreau for long-shot TD odds. In Week 11, Moreau caught 3 of 4 targets for 50 yards, averaging 16.7 yards per reception with a long of 22 yards. Moreau ran a route on 74% of dropbacks. He is the TE1 in usage for the Saints and third on the team in red-zone targets.

My Picks:

Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens

Sides:

  • The Ravens have covered the spread in six of their last 10 games.
  • Baltimore is 15-6 on the money line as home favorites but just 9-12 ATS as home favorites.
  • Baltimore is 15-6 ATS on the road in the last two seasons and 11-5 ATS as a road favorite in their last 16 applicable appearances.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Ravens have covered the spread in each of their last 13 games following a Division loss.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 11 of the Eagles’ last 16 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 18 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last 13 games as favorites.
  • The Eagles are 5-12-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season.
  • They covered just four spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • But at home in their last 23 games - 13-10 ATS as home favorites
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last 10 road games.

Totals:

  • Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (10 of their last 13), but they tended to be against better offenses.
  • The Ravens are 10-2 toward the over this season.
  • Ten of the Ravens' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The lowest total game they’ve played in this season has been 34 points (previous low of 45 points).
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in 14 of the last 17 games (13 of the previous 19).
  • Six of the Ravens’ last seven road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Ravens' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 14-15 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 6-11 toward the over on the road.
  • Eight of the Eagles’ last 11 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 8-4 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023. They are 1-3 toward the over at home this season.

Overall:

What a cross-conference treat (or potential Super Bowl preview) we have for the late window in Week 13. Ravens-Eagles with both teams coming off massive wins in Los Angeles.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Ravens offense leads the NFL with 426.7 total yards per game this season, while the Eagles defense leads the NFL with 274.6 total yards per game allowed.

Let's start with the Eagles side. They have completely dominated their opponents since the bye week with the No. 1 defense and No. 1 rushing attack.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Eagles have outgained each of their last seven opponents by 100+ total yards. Only the 1942 Bears (10 straight games) have a longer single-season streak since 1940. Historic.

They can beat you in so many different ways.

Jalen Hurts has averaged the 3rd-most yards per attempt (12.9) on downfield (10+ air yards) pass attempts this season, including a league-high completion percentage (58.4%) and a completion percentage above expected (+12.3%) on such passes (Next Gen Stats).

The Ravens’ defense has allowed a league-high 156 yards per game on downfield pass attempts this season, including the 6th-highest CPOE (+3.7%) on such attempts. Last season, the Ravens allowed just 96 yards per game on such attempts (8th-lowest). Baltimore has allowed the 2nd-lowest explosive run rate (4.5%) to running backs this season, having allowed just 3.3 yards per carry (2nd-fewest).

The Ravens have allowed opposing running backs to gain just 2.6 yards after contact per carry this season, the fewest in the NFL. Saquon Barkley has recorded a league-high 29 explosive runs this season, nearly matching his career-high of 32 set in 2022.

Even "if" the Ravens can slow down Barkley, they won't be able to contain this passing attack. Although it does work a bit more in their favor, DeVonta Smith seems unlikely to play with his hamstring injury. A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert missed multiple weeks with their similar hammy injuries, so don't hold your breath waiting on Smith.

But the Eagles are hardly the only team chasing history. According to Next Gen Stats, Lamar Jackson is on pace to be the first player in the Super Bowl era to lead all QBs in passing yards (3,053), passing touchdowns (27), and rushing yards (599) in the same season.

And as I pointed out last week in the Ravens-Chargers matchup, Jackson shows up against the top-ranked defenses. Jackson is 3-0 with a 111.0 passer rating in his career against teams entering that week as the #1 scoring defense.

Against the Chargers, Jackson completed 16 of 22 passes for 177 yards and two touchdowns. His performance was highlighted by a stellar 126.5 passer rating and an 8.0 yards-per-attempt average.

I won't argue with anyone who claims that the Eagles are the superior, more well-rounded team. They have a complete defense that has allowed the fewest yards per play this season. The Ravens’ pass defense is a major liability allowing explosive plays.

Both teams have great run defenses, but we shall see if they can stack up against each other's elite offensive units.

Ultimately it comes down to the quarterback play, and I can't bet against Lamar Jackson in a game where I feel like the Ravens are being undervalued. Baltimore can sometimes play down to their competition, but this isn't the spot where you would expect that.

Twenty points is the key number. The Eagles don't usually cover if they allow 20 points. The Ravens have been held under 20 points just twice this season (KC and PIT), neither game in which they covered nor won.

Baltimore is -470 to score over 19.5 points. It’s +345 to pair Eagles ML with the Ravens team total under 20.5 points.

I should note that Philly has been on the favorable side of variance in close games this season (5-1), so they might be "due" for a let-down in a tight game. The Ravens are 5-4 in close games this season.

Like two weeks ago (which worked), I’d also like sprinkle some live betting on Philly. I hope they get down to start and then get them at a better number, given how they traditionally start slow.

In fact, that might be the best way to approach the total in this game as well. In six of the Ravens’ last seven games, their opponents have scored first.

Against the Chargers' top-ranked defense, Baltimore punted on its first two drives before scoring in the second quarter and seconding this game over the total with 46 points scored in the final three quarters.

Live bet the OVER at a better number because we know these teams will eventually start putting up points.

Props:

The Ravens have allowed the second-most TDs to WRs this season.

Keep an eye out for the Dallas Goedert props.

He played a key role with a 26% target share, catching 4 of 5 targets for 19 yards last week. He also saw two red zone targets but couldn't find the end zone.

Goedert might see some suppressed prices across the board in Week 13, given his lack of yardage. But against the Baltimore Ravens' defense that has been horrible versus tight ends, I'd fully expect him to bounce back. Nine of the last 10 TEs to play Baltimore have gone OVER their receiving yards prop.

My Picks:

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