NFL Week 13 Line Movement Analysis (2024)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 13 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| LV | KC | -13 | -13 | 0 | 42.5 | 42.5 | 0 |
| IND | NE | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 42.5 | 42.5 | 0 |
| LAC | ATL | 1.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 47.5 | 47.5 | 0 |
| HOU | JAX | 6 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 43.5 | 0.5 |
| AZ | MIN | -4 | -3.5 | -0.5 | 46.5 | 45 | -1.5 |
| PIT | CIN | -2.5 | -3 | 0.5 | 47 | 47.5 | 0.5 |
| SEA | NYJ | 1.5 | 2 | -0.5 | 42 | 42 | 0 |
| TEN | WAS | -6 | -5.5 | -0.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 | 0 |
| TB | CAR | 6 | 6 | 0 | 46 | 46.5 | 0.5 |
| LAR | NO | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 47 | 49.5 | 2.5 |
| PHI | BAL | -2.5 | -3 | 0.5 | 50.5 | 51 | 0.5 |
| SF | BUF | -6.5 | -7 | 0.5 | 46 | 44.5 | -1.5 |
| CLE | DEN | -5.5 | -5.5 | 0 | 41.5 | 41.5 | 0 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 13 Spread Movement Analysis
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: +6 -> +4
Bettors seem soured on a Texans squad that has lost four of six games after a 5-1 start. The line movement seems to make sense as Houston is coming off a surprising home upset loss to the Titans, while Jacksonville is off a bye week. In addition, after two weeks of totaling 13 points with Mac Jones under center, Trevor Lawrence is eyeing a return after missing time with a shoulder injury.
There has been non-stop movement towards the Jaguars, as this spread has made stops at each half-point increment from +6 down to +4. In the event that Lawrence is ruled out later in the week or over the weekend, this line could balloon back to its original number.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints: +2 -> +2.5
Twelve of the remaining 13 post-Thanksgiving games have seen their point spreads move a half-point or lower since their initial opening. And while this half-point line movement in the Rams-Saints clash may not look like a lot, a deeper dive into the movement suggests some profound takeaways.
Los Angeles was originally bet up to -2.5 and to the key number of -3, before Saints backers weighed in and drove the number back to -2.5. New Orleans is off a bye week, is 2-0 under interim head coach Darren Rizzi, and still has a +2 point differential despite entering this matchup at 4-7.
The Rams were held to 290 yards in last week’s loss to the Eagles (their fourth game under 300 yards this year), and also allowed the most rushing yards to a player (255 to Saquon Barkley) in an NFL game since Jamaal Charles in 2009. Because of the line movement thus far, we should not see this game kick off at a line higher than Rams -3, but it would even be surprising if it gets back to that number before kickoff.
NFL Week 13 Total Movement Analysis
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings: 46.5 -> 45
The Vikings have the No. 1 ranked rushing defense in the league, and Kyler Murray is 0-4 in four career starts when facing the league’s top rushing defense. In addition, Arizona is coming off its first game without a touchdown, and fell to 1-5 when Murray throws for one or fewer touchdowns this year.
All of those are valid reasons why this total opened at 46.5 points and plummeted to a week-long low of 44.5 on Wednesday night. Since then, Over backers drove the number back up a half-point to 45.
Both of these teams are top-10 most profitable Under teams in the league (Arizona’s O/U record is 5-6, Minnesota has seen the Under cash in seven of its 11 games), so Under backers may continue to drive the line down despite the recent increase in the total.
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills: 46 -> 44.5
The following post on X explains why the total in the 49ers-Bills Sunday Night Football matchup has plummeted since its initial opening.
This line has had non-stop movement on the Under since opening at 46, but still has plenty of volatility left as we await word on plenty of key players’ injury statuses, namely San Francisco’s Brock Purdy.
In Purdy’s absence last week, the 49ers did many things as poorly as they have done them in the Kyle Shanahan era since 2017. San Francisco’s -28 points margin was third-worst since 107, its 21 opponents’ points off turnover was tied for third-worst, and its 44 rush yards were also third-worst in that span.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.