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NFL Week 14 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

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Introducing the Week 14 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you'll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the remaining Week 4 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 14 games on Sunday. Note that the Sunday night and Monday night games will be getting their own dedicated articles.

NFL Week 13 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • Dolphins -6
  • Cardinals -3
  • Bills -3.5
  • Titans -3.5

Top Underdogs:

  • Falcons +6
  • Bears +3.5
  • Raiders +6.5

Top Totals:

  • NYG/NO under 41
  • PIT/CLE over 43.5

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Sides:

  • The Dolphins have lost 11 of their last 15 games.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 16 games.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven home games.
  • The Dolphins have won 22 of their last 29 home games.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dolphins have covered the spread in 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record.
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted to their old ways during their three-game losing streak. In their Week 5 and Week 7 wins against the Patriots/Colts, they came back from first-half deficits. They did not come back against the Packers on Thanksgiving Night.
  • The Dolphins have won the first half in six of their last seven games.
  • The Dolphins have won each of their last eight home games against the Jets.
  • Miami is 25 percent ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has been 3-9 overall since 2023. They are 5-10 as an underdog in their last 15 applicable games.
  • The Dolphins have lost 12 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 15 of their last 17 games as underdogs.
  • The Jets have lost each of eight of their seven games.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 18 of their last 23 games. 3-9 ATS this season
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games against teams with winning records.
  • In each of the Jets' last nine games, their opponents have scored last.
  • The Jets have lost their last five road games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Jets have lost five of their last six games as favorites.

Totals:

  • The Dolphins are 4-2 toward the over with Tua Tagovailoa the last six weeks.
  • Each of the Dolphins’ last four home games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Miami is 4-2 toward the over at home this season (46 points per game).
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, nine of the Dolphins' last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Dolphins’ last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Dolphins’ last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Fifteen of the Jets' last 23 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jets are 3-2-1 toward the over on the road this season.

Overall:

The Dolphins have won each of their last eight home games against the Jets. And the six-point home spread in favor of Miami suggests that Sunday will be a ninth straight victory for the Fins.

The Jets season is all but over, and last week's collapse against Seattle was the nail in the coffin. The Seahawks were doing everything in their power to give the game to the Jets, and Aaron Rodgers gave it right back to them.

You don't need anything from me to convince you that the Jets are a bad football team.

But it's a key reminder in this matchup because this is the exact spot where the Dolphins show up: At home against a bad team.

In Week 12, we backed Miami at home versus the Patriots. In Week 13, we faded them into oblivion on the road in the cold.

Miami has been 4-1 ATS for the last five weeks, and this is where they get back on track.

New York is hurt all over the place with injuries to key players like Aaron Rodgers, Breece Hall (out), and Sauce Gardner (likely out).

Miami's offense should produce against an overrated Jets defense that has allowed the fifth-highest rushing TD rate this season. The offensive line has been solid in pass protection, providing ample time for Tua Tagovailoa to dice up the Jets.

New York is tied for the 4th-most deep passes face this season (allowing the third-most deep passing yards per game).

Given the likely absence of Gardner, Jaylen Waddle could be set up nicely in this game. Waddle has performed well against familiar opponents, cooking the Patriots twice this season. Last year versus the Jets, Waddle went for 110 receiving yards or more in both games (Tyreek Hill did not play in either contest).

Waddle is also over 45.5 receiving yards in three of his last four games (4/7 with Tua this season).

As for the game total, it's in line with the BettingPros projection at 44.5 points. The trends point toward the OVER, but that's mostly driven by the Dolphins offense anyway. The one thing to keep in mind is that New York will have some success throwing the ball against the Dolphins’ secondary, which is extremely banged up. Outside Jalen Ramsey, they are thin at cornerback, with Kendall Fuller, Cam Smith, and Kader Kohou all injured. However, it looks like two of them might play.

Davante Adams has been used more in the slot than Garrett Wilson, providing him the easier matchup in Week 14. Adams leads the Jets with a 32% target share in the last three games to Wilson's 24% target share.

Props:

Jets rushers have recorded the 2nd-fewest yards before contact per carry (0.9), and the fewest forced missed tackles (38) in the NFL this season.

The Dolphins’ defense has held opposing rushers to the fewest yards before contact per carry (0.5) but has missed a tackle on 14.3% of their tackle opportunities, the 6th-highest missed tackle rate in the NFL this season.

Miami is on a streak of five straight unders to opposing RBs rushing projections in the last five weeks.

My Picks:

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

Sides:

  • Their opponents have scored first in seven of the Falcons’ last seven games.
  • The underdogs have won 12 of the Falcons’ last 24 games.
  • The Falcons are 5-7 ATS on the road, 3-5 ATS as road favorites, and 6-14 on the road straight up.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 13 games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • The Falcons have won six of their last 11 games.
  • The Falcons have won seven of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Falcons are 5-4 ATS in their last nine home games as underdogs and 10-5 as home favorites on the money line.
  • The Falcons are 10-17-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing at 8-7 straight up.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 13 games against AFC opponents.
  • Atlanta is 10-5 on the money line as home favorites (15-10 at home overall).
  • The Falcons, as a home favorite, are 6-9 ATS.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 18 games. They are 7-5 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
  • As home favorites, the Vikings are 11-4 on the money line (70%) but just 6-10 ATS (40%).
  • The Vikings have dropped eight of their last nine home games ATS as a favorite.
  • All but six of the Vikings’ last 26 games have been decided by eight points or less (77%).
  • The Vikings have won the first quarter in eight of their last 12 games.
  • The Vikings have been the first to 10 points in 11 of their last 12 games.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Vikings are 7-4-2 ATS as road favorites.

Totals:

  • The Falcons are 4-8 O/U this season.
  • Atlanta is 2-3 O/U on the road this season, with games averaging fewer than 50 points.
  • They are 2-5 O/U at home, averaging UNDER 46.5 points per game.
  • Four of the Falcons’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Falcons’ last 14 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Falcons’ last 10 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Vikings' last 15 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Vikings’ last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Vikings are 7-5 toward the under this season. This season, 4-1 toward the under at home, averaging 44 points per game.
  • The Vikings are 3-10-1 toward the over in Minnesota since the start of 2023.

Overall:

The Minnesota Vikings have won each of their last five games, but in typical SKOL fashion, they have all been close games. Although the "close game" narrative is usually headlined by the Chiefs, the Vikings aren't too far behind as Sun runners. They are 7-1 in close games this season. Arizona's win probability was 91% last week, with five minutes left in the game.

The Vikings are bad against the spread at home (6-10 ATS), which was apparent in last week's game. They have dropped eight of their last nine home games ATS as a favorite.

Arizona's pass rush came alive for the first time all season against the Vikings. Per Next Gen Stats, the Cardinals generated a season-high 53.8% pressure rate, registering five sacks (three of which were unblocked).

The Falcons offense didn't look better after the bye week, but the defense played much better. They held the Chargers to under 200 yards of offense with zero offensive TDs. They had five sacks.

Entering last week, the Vikings had the No. 1 run defense in EPA/rush allowed this season. But they lost linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. and immediately allowed a season-high 154 rushing yards. They allowed over 400 yards of offense for the second time all season. The Cardinals offense punted once.

Minnesota also lost starting cornerback Stephon Gilmore to a hamstring injury.

Minnesota is getting way too much credit during this five-game win streak. They haven't covered in three of their last four games against the Jaguars, Bears, and Cardinals.

The market is completely overlooking this due to Kirk Cousins' implosion last week. Obviously, Cousins didn't play great, and he hasn't looked good the last few weeks. But he's faced two elite defenses in his last two games, including a dead-cat bounce divisional game against the Saints.

The odds have been stacked against the Falcons, and now there are zero expectations for them as 5.5-point road underdogs.

Even though there's a strong case to be made that the Vikings will be "lucky" to win by six-plus. And that Cousins might not even be the be-all end-all of this matchup if the Falcons can run the ball on a depleted Minnesota defense.

This is the same spread the Falcons faced on the road at Philly after a disastrous Week 1 when everybody called for rookie Michael Penix Jr. to replace Cousins. The Falcons won outright.

I was on the Cardinals ML last week, and it should have been a hit. But the process was sound. Fade the Vikings.

Take the Dirty Birds with the points, and sprinkle some on the money line. Also, don't be surprised if Atlanta falls behind early, in which case they make for an even better LIVE bet at boosted odds.

Every trend points strongly toward the under in this game. The Vikings are 3-10-1 toward the over in Minnesota since the start of 2023 (1-4 this season, averaging 44 points per game).

Minnesota's "overs" have all been against offenses like the healthy Rams, Lions, and Packers. The Bears game also went over, which surprised me. Arizona’s offense seems somewhere in the middle, and the game went under at most books, depending on the final closing line. Twelve of the Falcons’ last 14 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.

I view this total very close to last week's Vikings game, and I think you have to go under. I don’t envision this being a full-blown shootout, but a 24-20 score seems very realistic (total at 45.5).

Props:

Minnesota usually drives volume from their opponents. They have been fifth in attempts and yards allowed through the air the last four weeks. The last three quarterbacks who have faced the Vikings have all exceeded their passing yards projection by an average of +95 passing yards.

Kyle Pitts was targeted twice in the red zone last week but failed to record a reception, continuing a frustrating season for the talented tight end. To add more problems for Pitts, he played just 41% of the snaps fewer than Charlie Woerner (58%). His routes fell to 63%, which has happened at times this season. Not great. He has one catch in the last two games. But he's done this act before. He went catch-less back in Week 4 to post season-highs across the board in Week 5 versus Tampa Bay.

If this matchup increases his volume potential he should be more productive. The Vikings have faced the second-most targets to TEs in the last four games and the most tight end targets ALL season. Pitts has 26 or fewer receiving yards in six games this season while going OVER 50 yards in his other six games-alt bet.

Given the blitz-heaviness of the Vikings' defense, I'd expect a lot of quick hitters to the RBs in the passing game. Go MORE THAN Bijan Robinson's 30.5 receiving yards this week. He has 28-plus receiving yards in six straight games.

It's Justin Jefferson week. This man needs targets, and only the Lions have allowed more targets to oppose No.1s than Atlanta. Jefferson has gone OVER 83.5 yards in four of his six home games this season (90-plus receiving yards) compared to one OVER on the road this year.

When it comes to TDs in this game, expect them to come through the air. This matchup has the two highest percentages of passing TD% on offense against pass defense passing TD% for BOTH teams.

My Picks:

 Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles

Sides:

  • The Panthers have not covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 17 of their last 22 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 17 of their last 20 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games against teams with winning records.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 11 of the Eagles' last 17 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 19 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven home games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last 13 games as favorites.
  • The Eagles are 5-12-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season.
  • They covered just four spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • But at home in their last 23 games – 13-10 ATS as home favorites
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last 11 road games.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Panthers' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Panthers' last 23 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Panthers’ last five games at Bank of America Stadium has gone OVER the total points line (5-1 overall record to the over at 49.4 points per game).
  • Eight of the Panthers' last 14 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 14-16 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 6-12 toward the over on the road.
  • Nine of the Eagles' last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 8-4 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023. They are 1-3 toward the over at home this season (43.5 points per game)

Overall:

The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in their last seven home games against teams that held a losing record. They have also failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.

After a massive win on the road against the Baltimore Ravens, this seems like a potential let-down spot for Philadelphia, especially against a plucky Panthers team that has gone down to the wire in back-to-back games as massive underdogs.

If Carolina were playing at home, this would be an easy spot to back them. We always take the double-digit underdogs at home. But on the road in a hostile environment against arguably the league's best defense? Yikes.

And there could not be more of a mismatch between the league's No. 1 run offense against the No. 29 ranked run defense.

As I have pointed out in the past regarding the Eagles' games, much of their struggle to cover games has been due to their defense. Their offense-after predictable sluggish starts-always gets going from the second quarter on.

But the key number is 20 points. The Eagles don’t usually cover if they allow 20 points. They held the high-powered Ravens offense to 19 points, some of which came on a garbage-time TD in the fourth quarter.

Carolina's chances of scoring 19.5+ points are +150. If you want to back Carolina, bet on their team total at -112 over 16.5 (or the alternate at 19.5, which is better than the Panthers odds to cover at +12.5). It is +152 to parlay Eagles ML with the Panthers team total of over 16.5 points.

I think big spreads like this are perfect for live betting. We know the Eagles start slow. Wait for Carolina to jump out to a 7-0 lead and then jump on Philly's ATS odds.

As for the total, it's hard to back the entire game total over without confidence that Carolina can pull their weight. Bryce Young has improved drastically since his benching, but this is a tall task on the road for him.

That’s why I am going UNDER on his 196.5 passing yards for Young against the Eagles. No QB has hit their closing line passing yards prop versus the Eagles since their bye week. The projections have him much closer to sub-200 passing yards. Carolina hasn't scored more than 14 points on the road in any Young game this season.

I'll take my chances betting on the Eagles’ defense and their offense playing ball control to limit the Panthers' offensive opportunities.

This feels like a 27-17 or 30-17 finish, which makes me shy away from the razor-sharp game total.

Props:

The Panthers have allowed the most TDs to tight ends this season.

Saquon Barkley is chasing history with his eyes set on a 2,000-yard season. His line is massive (110.5 rushing yards), but he's actually gone OVER 140 rushing yards at the exact same clip as his current rushing line. Alternate this bad boy up. Or just combine his anytime TD odds with a rushing yardage prop of your choice.

Jonathon Brooks chipped in with six carries for 18 yards in Week 13.

The backfield snaps were 79% for Chuba Hubbard and 21% for Brooks. However, the rookie was used more as a receiver, catching all three targets for 23 yards. Hubbard was not targeted despite dominating the routes out of the backfield. Also, Brooks saw three red-zone carries to Hubbard's solo attempt, in addition to two of his targets coming in the red zone.

He started the drive late in the third quarter after a Buccaneers turnover set up Carolina with an immediate red-zone drive. Brooks had five of his nine touches in the game on this five-play series.

After Hubbard's fumble, we could see more Brooks. It looked like they wanted to get him a TD with the constant effort to feed him in the red zone. I think he scores in Week 14.

My Picks:

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

Sides:

  • The Giants have lost each of their last six home games.
  • The Giants have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games.
  • The Giants have lost each of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Giants are 9-11 ATS over their last 20 games.
  • The Giants were the 6th-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1).
  • They are 1-5 ATS at home this season.
  • In each of the Giants’ last seven games, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
  • The Giants have failed to cover the spread in their last seven games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in six of the Giants' last nine games.
  • The New York Giants are 13-9 ATS on the road.
  • The Giants have lost 11 of their last 15 road games.
  • The Giants are 8-14 ATS as road underdogs.
  • The Giants are 12-8-1 at home ATS and as home underdogs, ATS (9-6-1).
  • Their opponents have scored first in the Giants' five of the last six road games.
  • New York is 6-5 ATS in their last 11 divisional matchups.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 14 games.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
  • Their opponents have scored first in eight of the Saints’ last 13 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Saints have scored first in each of their last five games.
  • The Saints have lost eight of their last 10 games.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • The Saints are 2-6 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Saints are 4-7 ATS as home underdogs (9-15 on the money line as underdogs)
  • As home underdogs, the Saints are 3-8 straight up. Woof.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in nine of the last 10 home games against AFC opponents.

Totals:

  • The Giants are 9-12 toward the over in the last 21 games
  • New York has scored 20-plus points in nine of their last 18 games.
  • Six of the Giants’ last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line (11 of last 14).
  • Nine of the Giants' last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Giants’ last 14 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Saints’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • These two teams each rank in the top 12 in red zone defense this season.
  • The Saints are 4-3 toward the over at home (48.5 points per game).

Overall:

Welcome back to MetLife Stadium, where game totals go to die. I know that the Jets-Seahawks went over last week, but it took every single crazy special team and turnover play to get there.

Looking ahead to Week 14 with the Saints vs. Giants, I am going straight back to the under. Six of the Giants’ last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line (11 of last 14).

Any game featuring Derek Carr outdoors in December against Drew Lock should have a total of comfortably under 40 points.

The current total is set at 41 points.

I've been on the losing side of the majority of Saints bets in 2024, so initially, my lean was to stay far away from them laying five points on the road. But this Giants team doesn't have anything left. They have the league's worst run defense. And they just placed their best defensive player, Dexter Lawrence, on IR.

If Lawrence was still healthy, I could argue that New York's pass rush could stifle the Saints enough to keep the game within striking distance.

But with a run-heavy game script-the Saints have had a -8% pass rate over expectation since Darren Rizzi took over as interim head coach-I'm not confident the Giants will be able to get after Carr that much without many dropbacks.

I know the Saints’ defense has been horrible this season, and that hasn’t changed with the interim head coach. They have allowed an average of 400-plus yards in the last three games. But I don't think New York has the ability to take advantage of it. They totaled fewer than 250 yards last week against a bad Dallas defense and converted three of 12 third downs. And New Orleans stifled the Rams’ offense for the first half in last week’s game.

Even if both teams post strong yardage totals, I'd expect these two offenses (especially the Giants' 32-ranked red-zone offense) to stall out when/if they get close to scoring.

There just isn't enough raw offensive firepower from either side to push this game over the total, considering these two teams each rank in the top 12 in red zone defense this season.

Props:

The Giants' biggest weakness on defense is against deep passes.

According to Next Gen Stats, New York's defense has allowed a 69.2% completion percentage on deep passes (20+ air yards) this season, the highest by any defense in a season during the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).

No other team has ever finished a season allowing opposing passers to complete more than 60% of deep pass attempts in that span.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has 87 or more yards in two of his three games with the Saints and might be in for a third OVER regarding his receiving yards prop.

Rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers commanded the offense, posting an impressive 38% target share and a 39% air yards share (74 air yards). He caught eight of his 13 targets for 69 yards (8.6 yards per reception) while showcasing his ability to create after the catch with 26 YAC.

Nabers has gone over 68.5 receiving yards twice (barely) in his last five games, with his two highest games at 69 and 71 receiving yards, respectively.

My Picks:

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Sides

  • The Jaguars have lost 15 of their last 18 games.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in 13 of their last 19 road games (not in Jacksonville).
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 18 games.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-5 overall as a favorite, dating back to last season. They are just 2-13 as an underdog since the start of last season.
  • The Jaguars have lost each of their last 11 games as underdogs.
  • ATS they are 8-2 as a home underdog and 5-5 on the money line.
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in four of their last six games as home underdogs dating back to last season (although it does depend on the final closing line).
  • In each of the Jaguars’ last seven games, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
  • The Titans have lost 15 of their last 18 road games.
  • The Titans have lost seven of their last nine games as favorites. They are 3-7 ATS as home favorites (30%).
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 16 games.
  • The Titans are 6-8 at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 13 games at Nissan Stadium.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 games.
  • As road underdogs, the Titans are 8-11-1 ATS.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the last eight games between AFC South teams.

Totals:

  • Six of the Jaguars’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 2-3 toward the over at home (44 points per game).
  • Seven of the Jaguars' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Jags’ last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in eight of their last 20 games.
  • Jacksonville scored 30 or more points five times since 2023. Three of those games came against the Colts.
  • The Titans are 15-13-1 toward the under in their last 29 games.
  • Tennessee is 1-3-1 O/U at home this season, averaging 39 points per game.
  • Twelve of the Titans’ last 14 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Trust the flow chart. The Titans have won nine of their last 10 home games against the Jaguars.

They play better at home, and that will matter when it comes to covering this 3.5-point spread.

I expect the Titans strong run defense to rebound after last week, and force Mac Jones into a 40-plus dropback position.

That should create serious problems for the Jags’ offense. Mac Jones has nearly the same EPA/dropback this season as Deshaun Watson (-0.24).

Twenty points is the key number. Tennessee is 3-0 this year when it has scored at least 20 points and 0-10 when it doesn’t. No team has allowed more points per game on the road this season than the Jaguars (31.7).

According to Next Gen Stats, the Jaguars’ defense has allowed the most yards per attempt (8.4), EPA per dropback (+0.25), and passer rating (110.2) in the NFL this season. The Jaguars' +0.25 EPA per dropback allowed is the second-most by any defense in the NGS Era (since 2016), trailing only the 2020 Detroit Lions (+0.30).

They are historically bad.

Will Levis has completed 72.6% of his passes against split-safety coverage this season, the 6th-highest mark in the NFL.

Since returning from injury in Week 10, Levis has thrown for 5 (tied for most in the NFL) while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt (third-most) against such coverage. The Jaguars have utilized split-safety coverage on 51.9% of opposing dropbacks this season, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, but have allowed a 72.2% completion percentage (11th-highest) and 8.3 yards per attempt (third-most) when doing so (Next Gen Stats).

Levis has thrown for over 208.5 passing yards in three straight games.

I like the Titans’ defense against the Jaguars’ offense and their offense against the Jaguars defense. Unless we get a back-breaking turnover from Levis (fingers crossed), Tennessee should come through here with the 3.5-point cover.

Both teams are on terrible long ATS streaks, but the Jaguars' 4-1-1 record against the number is screaming to regress. The Titans have covered just two games all season and were on the wrong side of variance in both of their games in which they were favored by 2 or more points at home.

As for the total - it's another UNDER. The Jaguars have averaged 11 points per game with Jones as the primary quarterback this season.

Props:

Calvin Ridley REVENGE game. The Jaguars defense is trash, and Ridley should take full advantage of them. He has gone over 63.5 yards in four of his last six games. The Titans also have the fourth-most favorable passing TD percentage matchup this week.

Last week, Ridley caught just 2 of 7 targets for 45 yards (22.5 YPR), including a 30-yard reception. It was just a 16% target share, but he saw a boatload of air yards (122), as he tends to do.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had a strong showing in Week 13 with three receptions for 61 yards (20.3 YPR) and two touchdowns on eight targets. His longest reception was a 27-yard touchdown. He also had another red-zone target. NWI now has eight touchdowns in the last eight games.

The TDs likely won't last, but the matchup is solid in Week 14 for just yardage. And he did lead the team in target share (23%), which is not nothing. In the last three games, he is tied for the team lead in targets (21%) with seven catches for 226 yards.

The Jaguars are also horrible versus tight ends. They are tied for the second-most TDs allowed to the position. Whyle only ran 10 routes last week but had three targets. One of these backup Titans TEs is going to score this weekend.

My Picks:

Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sides

  • The Raiders have covered the spread in nine of their last 16 games.
  • The Raiders have lost each of their last eight games.
  • The Raiders are 13-8-1 ATS over their last 22 games.
  • LV is 13-7-1 ATS at home (66%). They are 5-4-1 as home underdogs ATS but just 2-7 straight up.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in six of their last 10 road games.
  • The Raiders have lost 11 of their last 14 road games.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in nine of their last 15 games.
  • The Buccaneers have won seven of their last nine games following a loss.
  • The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games following a win.
  • The Buccaneers are 12-4 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 16 road games.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games as underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers have won six of their last 12 games as underdogs.
  • Tampa is 4-5 ATS as home underdogs.
  • Tampa Bay is 6-3-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 10 games.
  • The underdogs have won seven of the last 19 Buccaneers’ games.
  • Tampa Bay is 3-3 ATS against the NFC South, with the only losses against the Falcons.
  • The Buccaneers have been the first to 10 points in eight of their last 10 games against NFC opponents.

Totals:

  • Eleven of the Raiders’ last 22 games have gone UNDER the total points line, and they are 15-13 toward the under.
  • Six of the Raiders’ last 11 road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Six of the Raiders' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Raiders' last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Raiders' last seven home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Raiders are 3-1 toward the over at home, with games averaging 46.5 points per game.
  • Seven of the Buccaneers’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Tampa Bay is 8-4 O/U this season (4-2 at home, averaging nearly 52 points per game).
  • On defense, they have allowed the 8th-most points per game (Raiders' fifth-most).
  • Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 42 points total at home since 2023 (5-9 record toward the over).

Overall:

The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games following a win. It's a strong indication of this being a potential let-down spot for Tampa Bay after an emotional overtime win against the Carolina Panthers. You want to bet on Baker Mayfield when he's on the road or an underdog - not when he's a comfy 6.5-point favorite at home against a 2-10 Raiders team.

The Buccaneers are 5-9-1 ATS (36%) as home favorites.

The Raiders' defense isn't great, but they play hard for Antonio Pierce. And there are some strong advanced metrics that suggest a banged-up Mayfield might struggle to pass.

According to Next Gen Stats, Mayfield has targeted out-breaking routes on a league-high 41.0% of his attempts this season, also the highest rate of his career.

On such throws, Mayfield has completed 78.4% of his passes (4th-highest) for 7.8 yards per attempt (5th-most) and a success rate of 58.1% (3rd-highest), all top 5 ranks this season. Matchup: The Raiders have allowed only 67.8% of the opponent's out-breaking targets to be completed (4th-lowest) for an average of 6.0 yards per attempt (9th-fewest), both top 10 ranks.

Their defense can be extremely boom-or-bust, and they have allowed seven of their last nine games to go over the total. Before the last two of the last three weeks, the Bucs were on a six-game streak of overs, three of which were on the road.

And I, for one, was very impressed by Aidan O'Connell's play in Kansas City last week. The second-year Las Vegas quarterback came so close to a major upset.

But hey, a good team wins-a great team COVERS.

AOC is now 5-8 as a starter and 9-3-1 ATS. The Raiders have covered more than their fair share of road games as underdogs, and TB has shown no reason to back them at home as strong favorites.

O'Connell has more than enough weaponry between Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers to inflict damage on the Buccaneers pass defense.

Props

The Buccaneers have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season.

Brock Bowers has generated +138 receiving yards over expected and +91 yards after catch over expected, both the 2nd-most among tight ends this season and the most among rookie tight ends through 13 weeks since at least 2018.

Bowers has been a focal point of the Raiders offense with a 29.8% target rate this season, the 7th-highest target rate among all tight ends with at least 100 routes since 2016. Matchup: Bowers leads all tight ends with 590 receiving yards from detached (wide or slot) alignments, while the Buccaneers have allowed the 3rd-most yards per attempt (9.2) to tight ends from detached alignments this season.

My Picks:

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sides

  • The Steelers have won 12 of their last 16 games.
  • The Steelers are 7-5 as home favorites ATS.
  • The Steelers have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • In five of the Steelers' last seven games, the first score has been a Steelers Field Goal.
  • As road favorites, the Steelers are 5-3 ATS
  • The Steelers are 15-8 ATS on the road.
  • The Steelers are 8-6 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
  • The Steelers have won 20 of their last 21 home games against the Browns.
  • The Steelers have been the first to 15 points in 12 of their last 13 home games against the Browns.
  • The home team has covered the spread between the Browns and Steelers in the last six games.
  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games.
  • The Browns have lost 11 of their last 14 games.
  • The Browns are 7-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road appearances as underdogs and 6-3 as home underdogs (5-2 over the last seven games as home underdogs).
  • The Browns have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 home games.
  • Cleveland is 10-5 on the ML at home.
  • The Browns have won five of their last six home games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Browns have covered the spread in seven of their last nine home games against teams with winning records.
  • The Browns have scored last in 11 of their last 12 games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in seven of the Browns' last eight games.
  • The Browns have won eight of their last 13 games as favorites and 9-6 as a favorite.

Totals:

  • The Steelers are 5-7 toward the under this season. 2-3 O/U at home this season (39 points per game).
  • Six of the Steelers’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Steelers' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Steelers’ last 17 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 4-1 toward the over in their last five games with Jameis Winston as their starting quarterback (51-point average). His two road starts went over the total.
  • Six of the Browns' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Browns’ last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Browns’ last 20 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Browns’ last 16 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 17-12-1 toward the over in their last 30 games.
  • Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season (except for Week 8, Week 12, and Week 13, both division home matchups).
  • The Browns are 3-3 toward the over at home (over 42.2 points per game).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 10-5 toward the under at home.

Overall: 

The home team has covered the spread between the Browns and Steelers in the last six games. We saw the Browns come away with the home upset against the Steelers on a snowy Thursday night, where I incorrectly backed the Steelers laying 3.5 points on the road.

In their last six matchups, Pittsburgh is 3-3 versus the Browns, with Tomlin’s Steelers winless on the road (and ATS) at 0-3.

Given the sour taste left in their mouths after the major letdown, I have to imagine this is where the Steelers continue to roll. Cleveland is coming off a short week, and we know their defense is much worse when they play on the road.

The Browns' defense allows explosive rushes and gives up massive chunk plays.

According to Next Gen Stats, Russell Wilson accumulated 135 of his 270 passing yards on deep passes (20+ air yards) in Week 12 versus the Browns, including his sole touchdown. The Browns have utilized a loaded box at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL this season (54.4%) but have allowed 4.1 yards per carry to designed runs when doing so (8th-most in the NFL). Still, when not loading the box, the Browns have allowed 5.4 yards per carry to designed runs (2nd-most in the NFL).

Najee Harris isn’t an explosive runner, so this could be a sneaky spot for Jaylen Warren to be more productive than he was back in Week 12.

Warren has gone over 33.5 yards rushing in five of his last six games, including 45 yards on 11 carries versus the Browns.

Najee Harris is under 62.5 rushing yards in two of his last four games. His carries have not increased in three straight games since Jaylen Warren has returned to the lineup and gotten healthy. Five of the last six starting RBs versus the Browns have not exceeded their rushing yards projection. Harris had just 41 yards rushing the last time he faced the Browns (Week 12).

The 9-3 Steelers versus the 3-9 Browns? Only 6.5 points? This is Tomlin’s year to win the Coach of the Year award. They won't let up against the Browns for the second time in less than three weeks. The Steelers have won 20 of their last 21 home games against the Browns (20 straight wins).

As for the total, I think the over is strongly in play. Both teams have been trending for game-overs. Six of the Steelers’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line. Four of the last five Browns' games have gone OVER the total. Thirteen of the Browns’ last 16 road games have gone OVER the total points line.

Props:

Russell Wilson has recorded 186+ passing yards in his last 10 appearances.

George Pickens has more than 70 receiving yards in every single game played with Wilson this season except for one - against the Browns. Given how salty he was after they lost, I'd imagine he comes out extremely motivated for a massive game.

Elijah Moore has gone over 50.5 receiving yards in three of his last five games. The Steelers are a slot funnel defense.

The Browns have allowed the second-most red-zone targets to tight ends this season.

Mike Williams ran a route on 29% of the dropbacks in Week 13. His routes fell for the second straight game, and he failed to command any targets. However, given Calvin Austin's injury (although projected to play) and Pickens' constant on-field antics, Big Mike might see a huge spike in usage in the next few weeks. Sneaky long-shot anytime TD bet.

My Picks:

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Sides

  • The favorites have won 22 of the Seahawks’ last 27 games.
  • The road team has won seven of the Seahawks’ last eight games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in seven of the Seahawks’ last eight games.
  • Seattle is 9-14-1 ATS in their last 24 games played (8-11-1 over the last 18 games).
  • Seattle is 12-3 as a favorite in the last 15 games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games as favorites.
  • The Seahawks are 5-6-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last 12 games.
  • Seattle is 4-5 as home underdogs overall and ATS.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in six of their last 11 games as underdogs.
  • Seattle as a road underdog ATS is 8-8 (50%). As away underdogs on the money line, they are 5-11.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight home games.
  • The Seahawks have lost five of their last nine games.
  • The Seahawks have scored last in each of their last seven road games.
  • The Seahawks have won their last four games as underdogs against the Cardinals.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 road games.
  • The Cardinals have lost eight of their last 12 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Cardinals had lost each of their last 12 games following a win before Week 8.
  • Per Next Gen Stats, Arizona didn't have back-to-back wins in 46 games, with their last winning streak coming in Weeks 11-13, 2021. A new streak has begun, with them winning their last four games. They have dropped two games in a row.
  • And that's despite them trailing in all contests to start the games (except last week when they led 19-6 at the end of the third quarter.

Totals:

  • The Cardinals have been an under-machine on the road since the start of 2023 (4-9-1).
  • However, this season has mostly been a different story. The Cardinals' road games have totaled 52, 57, 47, 55 points. However, the last two weeks have been unders.
  • They are "only" 2-3-1 toward the over on the road, but four points are the difference between a 5-1 record toward the over.
  • Nine of the Cardinals’ last 14 home games have gone OVER the total points line (2-4 O/U) this season, averaging 41 points per game.
  • Each of the Cardinals’ last four games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Cardinals’ last 12 Sunday home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Seahawks' last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Seahawks’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Seahawks’ last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Seahawks’ last 12 home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

I've spent a lot of time thinking about this matchup.

It's an NFC West rematch between the Cardinals and Seahawks, which we saw play out two weeks ago in Seattle. The Seahawks-to my dismay and bank account-won 16-6.

But they hardly dominated. Their one touchdown came on a pick-six.

Kyler Murray completed 24 of 37 attempts for 285 yards but failed to throw a touchdown and had one interception. The offense moved the ball but stalled out in the red zone.

Arizona struggled to run the football, and we know how important that is to them competing and covering games. Against Seattle in Week 12, James Conner was held to just eight yards on seven carries.

Per Next Gen Stats, after allowing 4.9 yards per carry (5th-most) and +264 rushing yards over expected (2nd-most) through the first 8 weeks of the season, the Seahawks have allowed just 3.9 rush yards per attempt (8th-fewest) and -47 rushing yards over expected (5th-fewest) since then.

The Seahawks have allowed just one rushing touchdown since Week 9, compared to 9 touchdowns in the first 8 weeks of the season.

After last week, the Cardinals are now 7-1 ATS when they rush for at least 100 yards this season.

The defenses dominated the first matchup, holding both offenses under 300 yards and 20 points. However, both offenses also threw red-zone interceptions. I don't envision another 22-point finish with this game’s total slated for 44.5 points.

I am confident that Arizona can open up to a lead on Seattle. The Seahawks’ offense tends to sleepwalk through the first half - whereas Arizona has the highest-scoring first-quarter average at home this season.

I also think Arizona can win on the margins regarding penalties (1st vs. 26th) and turnovers. Because I think the Cardinals will be able to get after Geno Smith.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Seahawks have used nine unique combinations of offensive linemen this season, tied for the 7th-most in the NFL.

Last week, the Cardinals generated 21 pressures on 39 dropbacks in Week 13 against the Vikings, setting their new season-high with a 53.8% pressure rate.

They have generated pressure on 39.6% of dropbacks (4th-highest) and sacks on 11.6% (highest in NFL) since Week 9, after producing a 26.6% pressure rate (3rd-lowest) and 5.2% sack rate (5th-lowest) through Week 8. Zaven Collins has generated a team-high 24 pressures on the season, the 2nd-fewest by any team leader (Falcons), but 15 Cardinals defenders have generated at least five pressures, tied for the most of any team (TB).

Arizona's pass defense has allowed fewer than 220 passing yards in four straight games, allowing two touchdowns on defense. This unit is legit and will given Seattle issues. I also expect the rushing attack to struggle, especially with Kenneth Walker out. According to Next Gen Stats, Walker has been contacted before the line of scrimmage on 54.5% of his rush attempts this season, the highest rate in the NFL (min. 100 carries). Seattle has major OL issues.

I expect this to be a slugfest that goes down to the wire. But given that Seattle could only narrowly beat Arizona because of pick-six at home, I don't think they will be as lucky two times in a row.

Simply put, Seattle usually doesn't win games when they aren't favored. They have won three straight games as underdogs. And yet, Seattle is still sub-50% ATS on the year.

As for the total, the under seems like the sharp play at 44.5. These teams are a combined 2-8 toward the over in their last 10 games. Four games have hit 45-plus total points. I think the total might come down to the wire, so just prepare for a sweat if you tail the under.

Props:

Garrett Williams has allowed the lowest completion percentage (51.2%), completion percentage over expected (-13.7%), and passer rating (48.6) among slot cornerbacks with at least 25 targets this season (Next Gen Stats).

This season, Marvin Harrison Jr. has been targeted on 38.8% of his routes against press coverage, the highest rate among receivers with at least 50 such routes.

Harrison has recorded the 2nd-most receiving yards (300) and is tied for the 3rd-most touchdowns (4) against press coverage this season. Harrison faced press coverage on 55.0% of his routes in Week 12 against the Seahawks, against which he was held to 2 receptions for 25 yards via Next Gen Stats.

My Picks

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams

Sides:

  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 12 games.
  • The Rams 2023 starters are 3-11 as underdogs straight up. This season, 2-5 as underdogs (3-4 ATS) after their massive wins against the 49ers and the Vikings.
  • The favorites have won 20 of the Rams’ last 23 games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in seven of the Rams’ last eight games.
  • The Rams have won seven of their last 10 home games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in six of their last seven games as road favorites.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as favorites.
  • The Bills have won 10 of their last 11 home games.
  • The Bills have won 16 of their last 19 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in 8 of their last 12 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 20-6 as a favorite since the start of last season and 14-12 ATS.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 27 games.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Bills have won their last 14 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • Since the start of 2023, the Bills have been 14-2 straight up and 9-7 ATS at home.
  • Bills are 8-6 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.

Totals:

  • Five of the Rams’ last six games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Rams’ last 18 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Rams are 13-12 toward the O/U in their last 25 games.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only seven times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense. They allowed over 300 yards of offense to the Raiders in Week 7 and Saints in Week 13. Miami only generated 238 yards against them on Monday Night Football, but they yielded 382 yards of offense to the Patriots in Week 11 and over 480 yards in Week 12 to the Eagles.
  • Five of the Rams' last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Bills' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line. (17 of their last 23 road games)
  • Six of the Bills' last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Bills' last 11 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the Bills' last nine home games has gone OVER the total points line. They are 6-0 toward the over this season (53 points per game).
  • Buffalo is 6-0 toward the over at home this season (53 points per game).

Overall:

The Bills have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as favorites. The AFC Super Bowl contenders have been getting it done against inferior opponents despite high expectations.

Meanwhile, the Rams are the exact team to fall flat when playing superior teams. All the trends back this up. The Rams 2023 starters are 3-11 as underdogs straight up. They are 2-5 as underdogs this season (3-4 ATS) after their massive wins against the 49ers and the Vikings, two NFC teams that Sean McVay is very familiar with. Not so much with Buffalo.

The Bills have too much firepower behind Josh Allen to be contained by the Rams' defense that can't cover or stop the run.

The only thing their defense can do is create pressure. But Allen has been a magician under duress this season. According to Next Gen Stats, Allen has been sacked on just 10.2% of his pressured dropbacks this season, the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL, trailing only Derek Carr (8.1%).

Allen and Carr are the only quarterbacks to have recorded more throwaways than sacks taken under pressure. The Rams defense has recorded the highest pressure rate (39.8%) but just the 5th-lowest pressure-to-sack conversion rate (17.2%) this season.

But last week against Carr... the Rams generated a season-low 25.6% pressure rate and failed to record a sack for the first time this season as a team.

LA got boat-raced by Philly, and I see no reason to think we won't get a repeat performance as Allen looks to cement his status as the league's MVP. Monday’s headline today? Why Buffalo’s new stadium should have been a dome.

We know that the Rams don't really have home-field advantage, and they tend not to perform great as underdogs when favorites dominate their games.

And Los Angeles scored just 21 points last week against a bad Saints defense. They got shut out in the first half and were outgained in total yards. The Rams were extremely lucky to cover last week. They won't be as fortunate two games in a row.

As for the total, all but one Rams game that closed at 49.5 points or higher this season has finished under the total (five games).

We know Buffalo will score, but the Rams’ lack of offense last week somewhat concerns me about pounding the over on the game total.

The Bills' road games are 4-2 toward the under this season, with one game surpassing 45 total points.

Props:

The Bills' defense allows the most yards, catches, and targets to RBs in the passing game this season.

James Cook has been very boom-or-bust as a rusher this season. Six games with 70-plus rushing yards compared to five games with 45 or fewer yards.

According to Next Gen Stats, Bills running backs have been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 36.4% of their carries this season, the 4th-lowest rate in the league.

The offensive line has been especially effective getting push up the middle, as Bills running backs have been contacted behind the line on 28.0% of runs between the tackles (2nd-lowest) and averaged 1.6 yards before contact per carry on such rushes (6th-most). The Rams have contacted running backs behind the line of scrimmage on just 29.0% of their carries between the tackles (5th-lowest) and have the 2nd-lowest run stuff rate (8.3%) on such carries.

In Week 13, Amari Cooper caught a red-zone ball and lateraled it to Allen for a rare QB double touchdown. The former Browns WR caught all three of his targets for 19 yards. Glad to see him healthy and productive in the lineup, even on limited opportunities. His routes run per dropback increased from the last time we saw Buffalo play.

The former Browns WR caught all three of his targets for 19 yards. Glad to see him healthy and productive in the lineup, even on limited opportunities. His routes run per dropback increased from the last time we saw Buffalo play.

As noted in the Fantasy Football Week 14 Primer, he had a 70% route share in the first half, which trailed only Khalil Shakir (80%). The Rams' secondary has been dreadful all year. They rank 31st in EPA/attempt on deep balls this season. Is this a Cooper eruption spot in the dome? You bet.

Cooper has 55 yards or more in half of his games with Buffalo while finishing with 12 or fewer in the other two contests. Boom-or-bust as they come.

Buffalo was noticeably more pass-heavy in Week 7 (+10% pass rate over expectation) compared to the -3% PROE in Weeks 1-6. In Week 8, it was at +1% despite them controlling the game from the start. In Week 9, it was back up to +6%.

In Week 10, with all the WR injuries, the PROE was still +2%. In Week 11, it was a +4% pass rate over expectation. In Week 13, with the weather as it was, the PROE was -19%.

Buy pieces of this Bills passing game that is starting to open things up through the air.

Since Week 7, Allen has thrown for 240-plus yards in four of his six games.

All but one tight end the Rams have faced has exceeded their yards projection since Week 2.

My Picks:

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers

Sides:

  • The Bears have lost 10 of their last 11 road games.
  • The Bears have lost each of their last seven road games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last six games as favorites.
  • Chicago is 6-4-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.
  • The Bears have won eight of their last 11 home games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in 12 of the Bears’ last 17 games.
  • The Bears are 12-7-1 ATS and 10-10 straight up in their last 20 games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in 11 of the Bears’ last 12 games.
  • The Bears have lost the first quarter in six of their last seven games.
  • The Bears are 6-11-1 ATS as road underdogs. 6-12-1 ATS on the road.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams with winning records.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 13 home games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 16 of the 49ers' last 24 games.
  • San Francisco is 14-7 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
  • The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth worst in the NFL in 2023.
  • So far, in 2024, they are 3-3 ATS at home. They covered against the Patriots/Jets/Cowboys, not against Arizona/Kansas City/Seattle.
  • The 49ers have covered the spread thrice in their last 13 home games.
  • The 49ers are 9-10 ATS as road favorites in their last 19 games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in their last 10 games following a win.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Bears’ last 12 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Bears' last eight road games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Bears’ last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • They are 12-5-1 under the point total in their last 17 games.
  • Fifteen of the Bears’ last 22 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the 49ers' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The 49ers are 3-3 toward the over at home, averaging 46 points per game.
  • Five of the 49ers' last six games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

This is a really fun matchup to handicap. On one side, you have the Bears fresh off the Matt Eberflus firing. I don't need to go into deep detail about how well teams perform after firing their head coaches (especially the disliked ones), but here's the main trend: More often than not, they cover the following week. We always see bad teams rise after these things happen. It happened earlier this season with these same Bears when they fired Shane Waldron as the offensive coordinator.

They covered the +5.5 spread against the Packers the very next week. They should have won outright.

Now for the other trend that works against the Bears. The Honolulu Flu. All but one team this season has failed to cover the spread after facing the Detroit Lions.

Technically, the one team that broke the streak was Jacksonville last week. They were off their bye week, so they had additional time to rest. They also played the Texans, who can’t cover a spread to save their lives.

But technically, Chicago is also coming off additional rest, having played the first game on Thanksgiving.

Therefore, I hold the head coach firing in higher regard. There's more weight to it.

And even though the Bears are trash on the road, San Fran is not a safe bet at home. The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 13 home games.

Pay little attention to where this game is being played when picking sides.

We will continue to fade the Fraudy Niners as we have all season. Chicago, amid all its turmoil, is 3-0 ATS in the last three games (7-4-1 ATS overall this season).

During this recent three-game stretch, Caleb Williams has thrown for 222.5 passing yards or more in all contests. With Chicago hit by RB injuries, I expect them to lean on the passing game.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Bears have played four games in 2024 with a point differential of 3 or less with under 2 minutes left in the fourth quarter. They are 0-4 in those games (tied for the worst record with the Jets).

Chicago's defense ranks first in the NFL in the red zone, whereas the 49ers' defense ranks 31st. The Bears offense ranks third in the red zone, while the 49ers offense ranks 27th.

As for the total, I like the under. The Bears' road games tend toward unders, and the 49ers can't get out of their own way with all the injuries.

Props:

The 49ers have allowed the second-most rushing yards to RBs over the last four weeks. Assuming D’Andre Swift suits up, this is a great spot to take his rushing yards over, with Roschon Johnson out due to a concussion.

Isaac Guerendo scored last week and has shown out in limited touches this season with his rare size/speed. He is averaging nearly 6 yards per carry and has surpassed 85 rushing yards in both games, where he saw at least 10 carries. The Bears have allowed 11 of the last 12 RBs they have faced to go OVER their rushing yards prop. I’d expect 60-plus rushing yards and 1 TD at worst for Guerendo in Week 14.

George Kittle added a modest seven yards on one catch in Week 13. It was a bad overall performance in a snowy Buffalo game. I wouldn't read too much into Kittle's bad outing.

Before this game, Kittle had at least 40 receiving yards in every game this season-56-plus in seven straight games. Take the OVER on his 56.5 receiving yards this week. Projections have him closer to 60-plus yards with Christian McCaffrey out.

Also, go OVER on 229.5 passing yards on Brock Purdy. He's posted back-to-back duds, but he should right the ship at home versus the Bears with a solid yardage outing.

My Picks:

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