NFL Week 14 Early Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Last week, I suggested backing the Titans at +6.5 over the Philadelphia Eagles this week. The Titans have now dropped from +6.5 to +4.5. However, I’ll eat some crow too. I also suggested backing the Texans at +6 and the Giants at +1. Instead, the Texans went to +7, and the Giants are now +2.5 at home against the Commanders.
Overall, we’ve been earning a ton of positive EV plays this season. Last week’s plays likely won’t give us at least two positive EV plays. But we’re back at it for Week 14.
Let’s get to work.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Rams
It sounds like Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, and Cooper Kupp won’t return for the rest of the season. So why are the Raiders only -5 on Thursday Night Football?
The Raiders pulled back-to-back wins over the Seahawks and Broncos and won each game by six points in overtime. Las Vegas scored 24.1 points per game, while the Rams, even with Stafford, have added just 16.2 points offensively.
The Raiders will take on the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday in Week 13 at home. They’re currently 1.5-point underdogs. A win against the Chargers would give them three straight wins and change the entire narrative on the Raiders.
The Raiders could eventually become a touchdown favorite.
Bet: Raiders +5 (-110)
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I suggested this last week, and I’m sticking to it.
What if Deshaun Watson struggles in his debut for the Browns in Week 13 against the Texans?
Maybe the Browns will pull out a win. But if Watson doesn’t have a crisp game for Cleveland on Sunday, many bettors will quickly fade him. After all, Watson hasn’t played a regular season game in years, and he didn’t look all that good in preseason earlier this year.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are taking on the Kansas City Chiefs at home. Cincinnati is getting Ja’Marr Chase and likely will have Joe Mixon back in the lineup against the Chiefs. Now that the offense is healthy, the Bengals could become a real threat against the Chiefs. If the Bengals squeeze out a win against the Chiefs and the Browns struggle in Watson’s debut, this Bengals line will be much higher than -3.5.
Bet: Bengals -3.5 (-110)
Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Miami Dolphins are taking on the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13 this Sunday. Both coaching staffs are familiar with one another. Mike McDaniel came from the 49ers’ staff to coach the Dolphins.
Miami is undefeated when Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes a game.
On the other hand, the 49ers only scored 13 points against the Saints last week. That won’t be enough against Miami. Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel didn’t make a significant impact against the Saints. Elijah Mitchell is also done for the rest of the regular season.
If the Dolphins defeat the 49ers, they’ll be much heavier favorites against an inconsistent Chargers team that always allows other teams to stick around.
Above, I predicted that the Raiders would beat the Chargers. I still stand by that. Take the Dolphins at -1 right now.
Bet: Dolphins -1 (-110)
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