NFL Week 14 Line Movement Analysis (2024)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 14 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| NYJ | MIA | -6.5 | -5.5 | -1 | 44.5 | 45 | 0.5 |
| ATL | MIN | -4.5 | -5.5 | 1 | 46.5 | 46 | -0.5 |
| NO | NYG | 3.5 | 4.5 | -1 | 40 | 41 | 1 |
| CAR | PHI | -13 | -13 | 0 | 45.5 | 46 | 0.5 |
| JAX | TEN | -4.5 | -3.5 | -1 | 39.5 | 39.5 | 0 |
| LV | TB | -7.5 | -6.5 | -1 | 44.5 | 46.5 | 2 |
| CLE | PIT | -6.5 | -7 | 0.5 | 42 | 43.5 | 1.5 |
| SEA | AZ | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 46.5 | 44.5 | -2 |
| BUF | LAR | 4 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 49 | 49.5 | 0.5 |
| CHI | SF | -6 | -4 | -2 | 44 | 44 | 0 |
| LAC | KC | -4 | -4 | 0 | 43.5 | 43 | -0.5 |
| CIN | DAL | 6.5 | 5.5 | -1 | 45.5 | 49.5 | 4 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 14 Spread Movement Analysis
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: -6.5 -> -7
This is not the biggest line movement of the week, but the fact the line initially moved in Cleveland’s favor to +6 then stormed back and reached the key number of +7 speaks volumes. Perhaps sharps were quick to pound Cleveland after its Monday Night Football performance against the Broncos where Jameis Winston threw for 497 yards (albeit in a loss), which was the most in Browns history.
But the line movement since reeks of public action, as Pittsburgh has won 20 straight regular season home games against Cleveland. That seemingly has bettors convinced the Steelers will avenge their 24-19 loss on Thursday Night Football two weeks ago, especially since the weather (50 degrees and partly sunny) will be much better this time around than the snow they played their first matchup in.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers: -6 -> -4
Oddsmakers quickly realized the error of their ways by opening with the 49ers as 6-point favorites, especially since the news came out early in the week that the team was placing running backs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason on injured reserve (IR). The line made two separate one-point plummets from -5.5 to -4.5, and again from -4.5 to -3.5 seemingly as a reaction to that news.
San Francisco got some support when the line was as low as -3.5, but it has since switched back and forth from -3.5 to -4. Also of note, this is Chicago’s first game after firing head coach Matt Eberflus. The last 40 teams to fire their head coach mid-season are 23-17 against the spread (ATS) in the first game after.
NFL Week 14 Total Movement Analysis
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 46.5 -> 44.5
This line movement is not surprising since these two NFC West rivals played a 16-6 slugfest in Seattle just two weeks ago, which was Arizona’s first game this season without a touchdown.
The Seahawks’ defense has been on fire of late, allowing 14.7 points per game during a three-game winning streak, and has held three straight opponents to fewer than 300 total yards. However, while the under is 25-12-1 in road games in Kyler Murray’s career, the over is 22-18 in his 40 home games.
When this total hit 44.5 earlier in the week, support on the over brought it briefly back to 45.5. But from there, it reached the same week-long low of 44.5, which is likely around the number this game will kick off at.
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys: 45.5 -> 49.5
It is rare to see a total jump four points like this one has throughout the week. There has not been complete one-sided support on the over, as the line briefly ticked down to 49 after first reaching 49.5. There seem to be plenty of bettors looking for value on the under when they feel the number is too inflated, as this total did reach 50 at one point before being bet down to 49.5.
The Bengals have lost an NFL record four games when scoring 33+ points this season, and their four losses when scoring at least 30 points are more than the rest of the league has in such games combined (three). Meanwhile, Dallas is 1-5 at home and has allowed an NFL-worst 34.5 points per game in its own building.
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