NFL Week 14 Monday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (Bengals vs. Cowboys)
Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 14 from BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 14’s Monday Night Football. In this solo MNF edition, we’re laser-focused on the highly anticipated matchup as we continue into the stretch of NFL regular season action. From expert insights on the spread and total to can’t-miss player props, I’ll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay for Monday.
Get ready, folks-it’s time to place those BETS. Let’s dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football.
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Monday Night Primer
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys
Sides:
- The Cowboys have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 games as home underdogs.
- The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight home games.
- The overall favorites have covered the spread in 23 of the Cowboys’ last 31 games.
- Dallas went 8-1 at home in 2023. They are 1-5 at home this season.
- The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games.
- The Cowboys have lost the first half in six of their last seven home games.
- The Cowboys have lost the first quarter in each of their last seven games.
- Dallas is 4-2 on the road this season and ATS.
- The Bengals have scored first in each of their last seven road games.
- Joe Burrow is 19-11 against the spread following a loss. Joey Covers.
- The Bengals are 15-7 ATS on the road.
- The Bengals have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games against teams with losing records.
- The Bengals have won each of their last six road games against NFC opponents.
- The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games against AFC North opponents.
- The Bengals have won 14 of their last 22 home games.
- The Bengals are 10-8-1 ATS as home favorites and 13-8 straight up at home.
- The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in the last five of their last six home games.
Totals:
- Ten of the Cowboys’ last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seventeen of the Cowboys’ last 26 games have gone OVER the projected total (65%), including the last 16 of 24 games.
- Games in Dallas have averaged north of 50 points this season (5-1 O/U).
- Since 2023, Dallas is 12-3 toward the over at home, averaging over 52 points per game.
- Sixteen of the Cowboys’ last 20 home games have gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Nine of the Bengals’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Ten of the Bengals’ last 13 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
- Fourteen of the Bengals’ last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line
- Each of the Bengals' last five games has gone OVER the total points line.
- Cincy is 5-1 toward the over at home, with games averaging north of 59 points per game.
- Eight of the Bengals’ last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall
Well, here we are once again. The Bengals are favored for the ninth time this season - the sixth time by more than a field goal. So far in those games, the Bengals are surprisingly 4-2 ATS on a four-game win streak. In fact, the only games the Bengals have covered (and won outright) have been with them favored by at least four points.
Go figure.
Joe Burrow tends to play better after a loss and significantly better against non-AFC North teams. He is 8-14 in his division and 25-16-1 in non-divisional games.
It helps even more when facing a team with a losing record; the Bengals have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games against teams with losing records.
So far, so good for locking in the Bengals at -5, with them playing far away from Cincinnati.
Meanwhile, Dallas has been bad all season, and it took an even worse New York Giants team playing on a short week for them to win their first home game of the season.
The Cowboys' defense can’t stop the run, but they still have a solid pass rush spearheaded by Micah Parsons.
I don't think that will be enough to slow down Cincy's offense. The top defenses haven't slowed down Burrow at any point this season, so I'm sure Big D won't create much resistance.
Case in point, the Bengals are 0-7 against teams .500 or better this season despite scoring 30.3 points per game in those seven games (Next Gen Stats).
As for the game total, I think the over is strongly in play. Both teams have been trending for game-overs at extremely high rates.
Props:
Rico Dowdle was the workhorse for Dallas in Week 13, carrying the ball 22 times for 112 yards (5.1 yards per carry) and scoring a rushing touchdown. Dowdle was highly involved in the red zone, with three carries near the goal line leading to his score. He also added three receptions for 11 yards on three targets. Dowdle commanded 70% of the offensive snaps, while Ezekiel Elliott (12% snap share) was largely relegated to a minor role, logging just one carry for four yards. Hunter Luepke contributed as well, carrying three times for four yards, including one red-zone attempt.
For the last four weeks, the Bengals have 62.5 rushing yards to opposing RBs. In fact, according to Next Gen Stats, the Bengals have allowed a top-5 lowest explosive run rate this season. No defense has played better against Derrick Henry than the Bengals this season.
The last four of the last 5 RBs (not named Henry or Saquon Barkley) have all finished UNDER their rushing yards prop versus the Bengals.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Cincinnati Bengals hold opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry on designed rushes between the tackles, the 2nd-fewest in the league.
They are hitting opposing rushers behind the line of scrimmage on 49.3% of such carries (3rd-highest), leading to an average of 0.5 yards before contact allowed per carry (3rd-fewest). Cowboys RBs have only gained 0.9 yards before contact per carry on designed rushes between the tackles (6th-fewest), generating the 8th-fewest rushing yards over expected on such carries (-32).
I will say that he might not get there as a receiver against the Bengals. His receiving yards line is set at 19.5 yards, which he has been under in four straight games with Cooper Rush as the QB. He has a negative ADOT of nearly three yards over that span, making it easy for him to lose yardage on his targets.
The last ten tight ends the Bengals have faced this season have gone OVER their reception prop. They rank fifth in yards per game to TEs this season (65 per game).
Jake Ferguson is expected to return from his concussion on Monday Night Football.
Linebacker Logan Wilson, who will miss the remainder of the season with a knee injury, was an effective tackler for the Bengals. On a team-high 7.2% of his tackles, he generated negative EPA for the offense.
Wilson also missed tackles on just 7.1% of his attempts, the 9th-lowest among defenders with at least 75 tackle attempts this season. In the Bengals’ first game without Wilson this season, they allowed a season-high 168 yards and a touchdown on passes to the middle third of the field (Next Gen Stats).
The Bengals have also been the worst defense against No. 2 WRs this season, allowing the most targets to the position.
Chase Brown is on a streak of 90+ yards from scrimmage. Last week, he had an 81% snap share. Elite role. With his elite post-bye week usage, Brown needs to be viewed as a fringe top-five fantasy RB for the rest of the season. Given Cincy's must-win status from here on out, I think his role will hold.
We can expect the Bengals to score first in this game, but through what means is a bit of a mystery. Brown is the favorite as the lead running back, but Cincinnati dials up more than enough pass plays inside the red zone. They threw multiple times from inside the 5-yard line last week.
They also have dynamic WRs across the board. I like Tee Higgins the most to score the first TD at +900. Two targets from the 1-yard line last week. Higgins has scored a touchdown in each of his last three appearances.
My Picks: