NFL Week 14 Sunday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (Chargers vs. Chiefs)
Welcome to the final NFL betting article for the Week 14 NFL Sunday Slate from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 14's Sunday Night Football nightcap matchup between the Bolts and Chiefs. In this standalone SNF breakdown, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated showdown as we hit the final section of the NFL regular season. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to build off your earlier winnings and/or chase your losses from the early slate of games.
Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Sunday Night Football.
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Sunday Night Football Primer
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Sides:
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 18 games.
- The Chiefs have won 17 of their last 18 games.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in 18 of the Chiefs' last 25 games.
- The Chiefs have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in six of their last nine road games.
- The Chiefs are sub-50% ATS at home and ATS in their last 24 home games
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in their last six games.
- The Chiefs have scored last in each of their last five home games.
- The Chargers are 8-4 ATS this season.
- The favorites have covered the spread in 11 of the Chargers’ last 12 games.
- The Chargers have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs.
- The Chargers have won each of their last nine home games against teams with a losing record.
- The Chargers have been the first to 15 points in each of their last eight games.
- The Chargers have scored first in five of their last six road games.
Totals:
- Twelve of the Chiefs' last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line (14 of the last 21).
- Eighteen of the Chiefs’ last 23 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have allowed just two teams to score 27 points against them (the Bills in Week 11 and the Panthers in Week 12).
- They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
- KC is 3-3 toward the over at home this season (43 points per game).
- Ten of the Chargers' last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Twenty of the Chargers' last 27 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eleven of the Chargers' last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Chargers are 8-4 toward the under this season.
- The Chargers have faced the fewest red-zone scores per game this season (1.0).
Overall:
We know the Chiefs have been overrated all season long. They should have lost last week to the Raiders. Nine of their 11 wins have been in one-score games, and they have won all the close games they have played this season.
After being all over the Raiders on Black Friday, I wanted to back the Chargers +4. However, I have reservations about their offense due to the lack of firepower because of recent injuries.
J.K. Dobbins is on IR. Ladd McConkey is battling a shoulder injury.
It was enough to get it done and escape against the Falcons on the road last week (thank you, Kirk Cousins), but it might not be enough against KC on the road.
LA struggled to run the football the last time these teams faced off. Per Next Gen Stats, the Chargers recorded 24 carries for 55 yards (2.3 yards per carry) in Week 4 against the Chiefs, resulting in their fewest rushing yards over expected in any game this season (-49 RYOE). The Chargers gained more rushing yards than expected on just 4.3% of their attempts, the 2nd-lowest in any game in 2024.
Now there are some caveats here. LA was without several starting offensive linemen when these teams met earlier this season. Also, the Chiefs' defense hasn't been nearly as good as of late.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs defense has allowed a +12.6 higher passer rating (ON: 87.1, OFF: 99.7) and + 8.6% higher completion rate (ON: 60.8%, OFF: 69.4%) with cornerback Jaylen Watson off the field as opposed to on this season. Watson has not played since Week 7 due to a fractured ankle.
The Raiders - who can't run on anybody - generated 116 rushing yards against KC. It is the most in any game this season since Week 1 (Ravens).
I think the Bolts might have more success rushing the ball behind offensive coordinator Greg Roman after what we saw the Raiders do last week. I expect them to feed Gus Edwards 10-plus carries, so take advantage of his suppressed attempts line. Last week was an outlier for the entire Chargers offense, as they only ran 46 plays. His rushing prop last week was 12.5 attempts.
Because Edwards led the backfield with six carries for 32 yards, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. He also saw four carries in the first half compared to Kimani Vidal’s two. The Gus Bus played a season-high 52% snap share. Vidal gained 20 yards on four carries, showcasing efficiency with a 5-yard average and a long of 16 yards. Hassan Haskins fumbled on his only carry, finishing with no yardage. The Chargers leaned on Edwards early, with him dominating the first-half workload over Vidal.
But Vidal had the lone carry inside the 20-yard line and showed so much more juice than the other backs with his long rush. If Haskins is phased out, making this a strict two-man backfield, I would like Vidal's long-shot TD odds at 5-1.
However, I don't think it will be enough for de-throne KC at home. The Chargers haven't fared well ATS as underdogs this season (25%), and KC seems overdue to cover a game after failing to do so in their last six contests. Part of that has been related to overinflated spreads. But KC has covered both games this season as small favorites.
If anything, my best bet in this game would be on the game total under - although this is a scary proposition in a Patrick Mahomes-Justin Herbert matchup. I liked the under on the Chargers' game against the Falcons, citing LA's lack of overs in their road games. Eleven of the Chargers' last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line. Combine that with the Chiefs' home games going UNDER the total – 18 of the Chiefs’ last 23 games at home have gone UNDER the total points line - you don't need to squint too hard to see this game finish under 43 points.
The first game this season between these two teams totaled 27 points after closing with a 42-point total.
Props:
What is one of the Chiefs' biggest weaknesses? Stopping tight ends.
Will Dissly has been a strong target for Justin Herbert this season and could see an expanded role should rookie WR Ladd McConkey (knee) be limited. Dissly saw a red-zone target last week but didn't score. Dissly only had one target despite running a route on 62% of the dropbacks.
Regardless, it's a great matchup versus the Chiefs - most yards allowed to TEs this season.
The Chargers don't stack the box or defend runs under center. KC has the sixth-highest success rate rushing from under center and the fourth-highest against light boxes.
All but one running back the Falcons have faced has gone OVER their rushing yardage prop this season (70-plus rushing yards in all but one game).
The backfield work was split between Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt in Week 13, each carrying the ball seven times. In the first half, Hunt led the backfield 5 to 3 in carries. However, Pacheco finished the game with seven carries for 44 yards (6.3 yards per carry), highlighted by a 34-yard rush. Hunt struggled with efficiency, totaling 15 yards on seven carries (2.1 YPC). Neither player found the end zone, with Hunt failing to convert his lone red zone rush inside the Raiders' 12-yard line.
Samaje Perine also contributed with a 25% snap share, catching his only target for 15 yards. Pacheco logged the fewest routes run among the running backs, finishing with a 37% snap share, just behind Hunt's 38%. But outside Pacheco's one long run, the Chiefs couldn't run the ball much against the Raiders (especially when it was Hunt).
I think Pacheco will earn more touches as the season progresses, but I don't think Hunt/Perine will completely go away so they can keep Pacheco fresh for a postseason run. That being said, you can't have faith that Hunt will see a strong share of carries to give him a massive rushing number. He had 15 yards last week and has failed to hit his rushing projection in four straight and five of his last six.
The Chargers rank 29th in EPA/attempt allowed on passes thrown 20-plus air yards this season.
Per Next Gen Stats, Patrick Mahomes completed 5 of his seven downfield (10+ air yards) attempts for 156 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in Week 4 against the Chargers.
Mahomes has targeted Xavier Worthy a team-high 14 times on deep passes this season, but the duo has connected just four times for 139 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Worthy has generated -170 receiving yards over expected in 2024, the 3rd-fewest by any rookie through the first 13 weeks of a season since 2018. The Chargers have allowed the 2nd-highest passer rating (129.5) and tied for the 5th-most touchdowns (7) against deep passes this season.
Mahomes' 71.4% completion rate on such passes is his highest in any game this season, and his 156 yards rank second-most.
Worthy had a season-high 73 receiving yards against the Chargers earlier this season and has 46-plus yards in three straight games since the offense has increased its production.
Patrick Mahomes has recorded the 8th-most rushing yards (251) and 5th-most rushing yards over expected (+73) on scramble rushes this season. Since 2018, Mahomes (2,132) trails only Josh Allen (2,750) and Lamar Jackson (2,655) in scramble rushing yards while his 13 touchdowns rank 2nd (Allen, 26) and 136 first downs rank 3rd (Allen 161, Jackson 139). The Chargers have allowed the 4th-most rushing yards over expected (+68), 6th-most yards per carry (9.1), and tied for the 2nd-most first downs (16) against scrambles this season (Next Gen Stats).
Mahomes has rushed for at least 17 yards in any game this season where he has had at least three carries except for the Chargers matchup earlier this season. He rushed five times for 12 yards. Smells like an outlier.
Travis Kelce remained the focal point of the passing attack last week, securing seven of his 13 targets for 68 yards. Kelce led the team in Target share (28%) and saw three red zone targets, catching two but failing to score.
Kelce is running ice cold in the TD department, but it likely won't last. He is seeing too many red-zone targets every week not to score soon.
My Picks: