NFL Week 16 Anytime TD Scorer Picks & Predictions (2024)
There were plenty of positives to take away from last week’s Anytime Touchdown (ATD) picks. The 12 players I picked scored a combined 11 touchdowns. However, the total profit for the week was less than you would expect given that last statement. I only hit on one First Touchdown (FTD) pick, and none of my three long shots came in. Seven players scored the 11 touchdowns, as four players scored twice. If I had replaced FTD bets with 2+ TD bets, I would have made a mint. That may be something to monitor moving forward. For now, I will stick with the ATD and FTD angles that have provided profit throughout the 2024 season. Below are my picks for all 11 games on the Week 16 Sunday slate, excluding the primetime game.
As a reminder, I am tracking these using bet sizes of 0.4 units on ATD and 0.1 units on FTD. Whether you play one or all, use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week’s best bets.
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Who will score a touchdown in this week’s NFL Games? The Anytime TD market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the QB who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today’s best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.
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Best NFL Week 16 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets
All wagers are 0.5 units
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets
- Anytime TD Odds: +460 at Caesars
- First TD Odds: +2300 at FanDuel
The Los Angeles Rams and New York Jets each have a pair of stud wide receivers and a running back at their disposal. So why am I going off the beaten path here? It is all about the matchup and scheme for me. The Jets play man coverage at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. Since Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned to the Los Angeles lineup in Week 8, they lead the team with 23 and 18 targets, respectively. However, Demarcus Robinson has parlayed his 14 targets against man coverage into five touchdowns. Nacua and Kupp have one each. I am not opposed to taking any of the usual suspects in this game on either side, but Robinson has enough value to make him my preferred pick in this game.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
- Anytime TD Odds: -155 at DraftKings
- First TD Odds: +400 at DraftKings
This price resembles a classic “don’t look a gift horse in the mouth” situation. I cannot remember the last time I put an ATD or FTD bet in on Saquon Barkley. It is not because he is not a worthy option. It is because the sportsbooks have often nuked Barkley’s prices to the point where I no longer consider him a value. But this week, we get a -155 price on a Barkley touchdown at DraftKings. That price is right for me, especially in a favorable matchup versus the Washington Commanders. Washington ranks 26th in the NFL in DVOA versus the run and has allowed a dozen touchdowns to opposing running backs this year. Two came from Barkley just last month when he gashed the Commanders for 198 total yards. I will happily pay this price for Barkley to score in this spot.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
- Anytime TD Odds: +128 at BetRivers
- First TD Odds: +800 at Fanatics
After last week’s nine-catch effort, Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride now has 89 catches this year. Still, he has yet to catch a touchdown pass. If the season were to end today, McBride would set the NFL record for most receptions without a touchdown catch. This record is a dubious distinction that McBride and the Cardinals are aware of and want to avoid. Quarterback Kyler Murray even took to social media this week to state that McBride “will touch the endzone soon.” Arizona is facing the Carolina Panthers in Week 16. Carolina has allowed 10 receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. That is the highest number in the NFL. They also rank 30th in the NFL in DVOA versus enemy tight ends. Arizona seems intent on ensuring McBride does not finish the season without a receiving touchdown, and the matchup is right.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
- Anytime TD Odds: +140 at DraftKings
- First TD Odds: +700 at DraftKings
My lone FTD hit last week was on Colts quarterback Anthony Richarson at a cool +1000. Though the FTD price is not as good this week, I will still run it back with Richardson. He has rushed for four scores in four games since rejoining the starting lineup. Richardson also gets a favorable Week 16 matchup when the Colts host the Titans. Tennessee has served up five rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this year, the fourth-highest mark in the NFL. They also rank in the bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed to the position and it is not as if they have faced many mobile quarterbacks. Richardson should continue to be utilized as a rusher down by the goal line, and I expect him to score on Sunday.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
- Anytime TD Odds: +115 at DraftKings
- First TD Odds: +750 at DraftKings
With David Montgomery out for the Detroit Lions, the books have completely sucked the value out of Jahmyr Gibbs touchdown props. The best price I found for his ATD prop is -319 at DraftKings. I cannot justify paying that price under any circumstances. Instead, I will roll with the Sun God and pick Amon-Ra St. Brown facing a Chicago defense that plays a lot of zone coverage. St. Brown leads the NFL in receptions and ranks third in yards versus zone coverage. I like him to lead the Lions receiving corps on Sunday and find the end zone. If you want a longer shot, I also like Bears running back Roschon Johnson. Detroit has a ton of defensive injuries, and Johnson has cleared concussion protocol. He is currently at +270 and +2100 at FanDuel for ATD and FTD, respectively.
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons
- Anytime TD Odds: +140 at Caesars
- First TD Odds: +700 at Caesars
I like this matchup for Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. He continues to play the workhorse role in Atlanta’s offense, and the New York Giants have allowed 12 touchdowns to opposing running backs this year. However, Robinson’s best ATD price is -200 at Bet365. I can’t get there, and there are reasons to expect the Falcons’ passing game to come to life this week. Atlanta has benched veteran Kirk Cousins in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr. Though there is some uncertainty with the rookie, he should be more willing to test New York’s struggling secondary. The Giants rank 29th in the NFL in DVOA versus the pass, including 30th against opposing number-one wide receivers. New York also struggles in man coverage, where Drake London thrives. He trails only Ja’Marr Chase and Demarcus Robinson in touchdowns versus man coverage this season.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
- Anytime TD Odds: +150 at BetMGM
- First TD Odds: +850 at BetMGM
I have no issue with anyone who wants to take Chase Brown or Ja’Marr Chase in this game. However, I am going to pivot to Tee Higgins instead. The matchup versus the Cleveland Browns is favorable for all three Bengals. Yet Higgins’ prices are far more palatable than those of his teammates. Cleveland plays man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL, which has often led to big plays. The Browns have given up 19 total touchdowns to wideouts, tied for second-most in the league. Chase is tied for the NFL lead in receptions (28) and touchdowns (6) versus man coverage. However, Higgins has been no slouch, with 15 receptions and three touchdowns against man, and in five fewer games. I prefer the value of Tee Higgins from an ATD and FTD standpoint this week.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
- Anytime TD Odds: +130 at FanDuel
- First TD Odds: +675 at Caesars
Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold has thrown for multiple touchdowns in five of his six road games this year. The Seattle Seahawks have been an above-average pass defense based on advanced metrics. However, they have allowed 15 receiving touchdowns to opposing wideouts this season. This week, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison should be on the ATD/FTD radar. Unlike the situation with Cincinnati’s wide receivers, the price difference between Jefferson and Addison is negligible. The difference in ATD price between Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins implies a nearly 20 percent disparity. Meanwhile, there is less than a 10 percent implied disparity between Jefferson and Addison. With that in mind, I prefer to trust Jefferson to maintain his role as the alpha wide receiver in Minnesota’s offense.
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins
- Anytime TD Odds: -110 at FanDuel
- First TD Odds: +600 at FanDuel
Though De’Von Achane did not score last week, he was still heavily involved in Miami’s offense. He had 19 touches, par for the course in games Tua Tagovailoa has played. Achane is averaging 19.5 touches in 10 such games, scoring in eight. We are banking on that trend to continue by backing Achane in a Week 16 matchup with the San Francisco 49ers. San Francisco has operated as a run-funnel defense for most of the season. They have allowed 16 total touchdowns to opposing running backs this year. That is more than they have given up to wide receivers and tight ends combined. With Jaylen Waddle likely out and Tyreek Hill continuing to deal with injuries, Achane may be even more involved than usual. I anticipate Achane scoring at least once in this game.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders
- Anytime TD Odds: +360 at FanDuel
- First TD Odds: +1600 at Bet365
It is time to get weird with my Week 16 ATD and FTD for this game. Or rather, strange. Brenton Strange, that is. With Evan Engram out of the fold, Strange caught 11-of-12 targets last week. Outside of rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., Strange was Mac Jones’ favorite target. That may continue with Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis being out for the season. The matchup is ideal for Strange to continue to be featured. Las Vegas ranks 26th in DVOA and has served seven touchdowns to opposing tight ends. That makes Brenton Strange a solid dart throw in this matchup. Jacksonville has also given up seven scores to tight ends this year, which makes Raiders tight end Brock Bowers (+185 for ATD at FanDuel) an intriguing play.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
- Anytime TD Odds: -125 at Fanatics
- First TD Odds: +550 at FanDuel
I don’t know how much matchup analysis needs to be done with how Josh Allen has been playing lately. The leading candidate for league MVP has rushed for eight touchdowns in his last five games, scoring at least once in all five outings. New England has only allowed one rushing touchdown to a quarterback this year. However, Allen is not your average quarterback. The Bills often utilize Allen as their short-yardage and goal line back. The Patriots rank 29th in the NFL in DVOA versus the run. They have also allowed a 61 percent touchdown conversion rate on carries inside their five-yard line. That is the third-highest mark in the league. Buffalo has an implied Week 16 team total of over 30 points. Josh Allen should be able to keep up his excellent play and score at least one rushing touchdown in this game.