NFL Week 16 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions (2025)
Got back to my winning ways last week, getting to the window with Rico Dowdle, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brian Thomas Jr. and a longer shot on Dallas Goedert, who found the end zone twice. This is truly the most wonderful time of the year for football fans, with bowl games littered throughout the week, highlighted by College Football Playoff games with a sprinkle of NFL on Saturday.
Week 16 figures to be very fun and impactful regarding playoff positioning, as we'll have five NFL matchups on Sunday between teams with seven or more wins. I'm here to give you my best NFL Week 16 anytime touchdown scorer picks. Hopefully, you will fill up your stockings with a little bit of extra cash before the holidays. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
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Best NFL Week 16 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints
Juwan Johnson (TE – NO) | +210
I settled on big-bodied tight end Juwan Johnson in this game, who has been the model of consistency for the Saints this season. He has recorded between two and six receptions and four to nine targets in nearly every game this season, despite who has been under center.
Johnson ranks second on the Saints behind wide receiver Chris Olave in terms of red-zone targets, which could prove to be problematic for a Jets defense that is tied for allowing the sixth-most to opposing tight ends on the season.
There's a good chance the Saints see some extra possessions in this game as well, with rookie quarterback Brady Cook set to start again for the Jets after tossing three interceptions last week. At anything 2/1 or better, I like Johnson to get back into the end zone this week.
Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns
Bills tight end Dawson Knox has seen an uptick in usage and productivity in recent weeks, despite the recent return from injury of fellow tight end Dalton Kincaid. Knox has three or more catches in five of their previous six games, a mark which he had not hit at all before that stretch. He was a major factor in the Bills’ comeback last week, reeling in two touchdowns to help propel them past the Patriots.
Knox ranks well above Kincaid, who is more of the dynamic big-play tight end, in terms of targets around the goal line, and ranks just behind Khalil Shakir in terms of red-zone targets in this offense. He does lead the team in terms of targets inside the 10-yard line. Kincaid is on the injury report again and may not suit up this week. At nearly 4/1 odds, I think we're getting some great value on Knox to stay hot and find paydirt again this week.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC) | +300
Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco has surely had a season to forget, failing to eclipse 60 yards on the season with only one rushing touchdown. Add in the fact that the Chiefs’ season is over, for all intents and purposes, as Patrick Mahomes is now recovering from ACL surgery, this pick really doesn't make much sense on the surface. So why am I going with Pacheco?
The Titans’ defense is still hot garbage at defending the run, ranking in the top 10 of most fantasy points allowed per game to opposing running backs. They are tied for allowing the second-most rushing touchdowns to the running back position (15). It's reasonable to think that Chiefs running backs will also see their workload increase with Gardner Minshew under center, so expect Pacheco to be closer to his ceiling than his floor regarding touches.
The threat of Mahomes scrambling for a touchdown around the goal line is also removed from this game, increasing the chances that Pacheco will get opportunities near the goal line. Kareem Hunt has been the top option in terms of short-yardage attempts, but 3/1 odds for Pacheco are just too good to pass up on in an ultimate buy-low spot in an A+ matchup. The Titans’ defense has been giving up rushing touchdowns to anyone and everyone all season long.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC) | +185
While +185 odds don’t necessarily jump off the page as a buy-low spot, I think that's exactly what we have here with Keenan Allen, considering the Dallas defense has been undoubtedly the worst in the league when it comes to defending wideouts. Dallas ranks fourth-worst in the league regarding yardage allowed to wideouts and ranks dead last in both touchdowns allowed and fantasy points allowed to opposing wideouts.
Even though he has not scored in his previous seven games, Allen still paces all Chargers receivers in terms of red-zone targets, and he's tied with Quentin Johnston for the most targets inside the 10-yard line. Johnston is set to return this week, which is giving us a little extra boost on the odds while also opening up the field more for Allen to operate.
Allen has been one of the most featured players in these articles throughout the season, for better or for worse. I'm not going to miss out on him as the Chargers’ receiver with the longest odds in the best matchup possible against a horrendous Cowboys secondary.
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) | +125
Let's continue the theme directly above regarding poor pass defenses, as the Giants are really bad in their own right. New York is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, including the sixth-most yards and seventh-most touchdowns. Jefferson is in the midst of a major scoring drought, failing to find the end zone in six consecutive games.
Although he did have a touchdown called back for an offensive penalty, Jefferson also saw another would-be touchdown uncharacteristically slip right through his hands against Dallas last week. As detailed above, this Giants secondary nearly mirrors Dallas in terms of how bad they are, so expect Jefferson to get several more opportunities around the end zone this week.
For what it's worth, both of Jefferson's touchdowns this year have come in road matchups. McCarthy would be very wise to go back to his top pass-catcher around the scoring area and get Jefferson back into the scoring column after the missed chances last week. Any other year in Jefferson's career, and I think these odds are somewhere between -115 and -125, so I'll take him here at a discount.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Mike Evans made his return from injury in a big way last week, reeling in six receptions on 12 targets for 132 yards (22 yards per catch). Evans has absolutely destroyed this Carolina team over the course of his career, with just shy of 1,700 yards and 14 touchdowns against the Panthers.
In his last 10 games against Carolina, Evans has 11 total touchdowns (including three multi-touchdown performances), and has failed to reach 60+ receiving yards only once (including seven 90+ yard performances and a 207-yard explosion).
With both teams sitting at 7-7 atop the NFC South, this is a must-win for both sides. Baker Mayfield should feed his top target as much as possible. Give me Evans to find the end zone in a matchup he has absolutely dominated as a Buccaneer. I also don't hate a sprinkle on Evans to score multiple touchdowns.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
Darren Waller (TE – MIA) | +260
We're getting a major discount on Darren Waller this week because Tua Tagovailoa has officially been benched in favor of rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers. If you read these articles, play fantasy football or follow the NFL in general, you know the Bengals’ defense has been historically bad covering the tight end position this season. For starters, the Bengals’ defense has been abysmal in general, allowing the most points, rushing yards and total yards per game. They’re also conceding the fifth-most passing yards per game.
Those numbers somehow get worse when targeting the tight end position specifically, as the Bengals are allowing four or more fantasy points per game, 200+ more yards and five more scores to tight ends than the next closest team.
The yardage stat is especially hilarious because the next closest team is the Seahawks, who have played one more game than the Bengals after their Thursday Night game. Waller burst back onto the scene as the lone bright spot in the Dolphins’ offense last week for two touchdowns, breaking his scoreless drought after scoring four times in his first three games back.
Despite his delayed start to the season, he's also accounted for 13% of all Dolphins red-zone targets and 18% of all targets inside the 10-yard line. We've been targeting the Bengals with tight ends all season long, and I'm not going to stop now, even with a less-than-ideal option at quarterback.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
This is a super interesting game that should tell us a lot about both teams, as I think there's a general sentiment regarding just how good each of these 10-win teams is. I immediately knew I wanted to take one of these quarterbacks to find paydirt. I settled on Bo Nix after digging in and finding out that the Jaguars are tied for allowing the fifth-most rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.
I find that stat a little bit more impactful when you add in the fact that the Jaguars are actually leading the NFL in terms of fewest rushing yards allowed per game and are tied for conceding the fifth-fewest rushing scores to opposing backs. This signals there's a specific weakness regarding the quarterback’s scramble game.
Nix has done his fair share of toting the rock in the red zone, accounting for 20% of all Broncos carries inside the 20-yard line. He has four rushing touchdowns on the season.
Quarterbacks seem to be more inclined to tuck it and run in high-leverage games, and that's exactly what we have here. I love for Nix to run one in this week at anything 3/1 or better.
Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals
Trey McBride (TE – ARI) | +115
I've got a nice mix of +200 and longer options on the card today, so I've got no problem mixing in one closer to even odds with Trey McBride. Who knew that all it would take was Jacoby Brissett to show us just how good McBride is?
In nine games started by Brissett this season, McBride has nine or more targets and 50+ yards in every single one (including three 115+ yard performances), catching eight or more passes in all but two games (double-digit catches in three) and nine total touchdowns. He's second in the NFL in red-zone targets and tied for fourth overall in targets inside the 10-yard line.
The fact that the Falcons have only allowed two touchdowns to the tight end position this year is maybe juicing these odds a little bit because I see no reason for there to be plus-odds for him to score. McBride is a matchup-proof monster, and he's going to score for his 10th time in as many games. Similar to Mike Evans, I don't hate sprinkling a bit on McBride scoring multiple touchdowns.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Houston Texans
Jawhar Jordan (RB – HOU) | +340
The health status of the Texans’ backfield is in flux right now, with Woody Marks questionable to suit up this week and Nick Chubb questionable as well after missing last week. Enter rookie Jawhar Jordan, who had an awesome debut performance spelling Nick Chubb as the No. 2 RB last week. Jordan racked up 101 yards on 15 carries, including a long tote of 50 yards. He also reeled in two catches for 14 yards.
As two-touchdown favorites (with a lowly total of 38 points), Jordan will likely see some work again this week to give him more experience and give the Texans’ top two backs some rest to get healthy before their playoff run.
I also think the Texans may want to reward Jordan with a score after his performance last week. Add in the fact that the Raiders are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing backs and are tied for allowing the second-most rushing scores to the position, and this is the perfect recipe for Jordan to find the end zone at some really juicy odds.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
Calvin Austin III (WR – PIT) | +700
I'm ending this article with a banger, taking a shot on Steelers speedster Calvin Austin to haul in a touchdown at +700 odds. He obviously does not qualify as a high-volume, high-leverage target and has only one catch in his previous three games, so why settle on Austin? For starters, this game features the highest total on the board (52), so I expect both sides to have plenty of possessions and opportunities to score.
Next, the Lions have rivaled the Cowboys in terms of inability to defend the wide receiver position, allowing the most yards to opposing wideouts and the second-most fantasy points and touchdowns to receivers. I also believe the fact that Aaron Rodgers connected with Marquez Valdes-Scantling last week is giving us a boost on these odds that I would normally expect to be in the +400 to +500 range in a game with a total this high.
Austin might only get one target in this game, but there's a good chance that one target could result in points. Calvin Austin at these odds is absolutely worth a sprinkle this week.