NFL Week 16 Early Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
Last week, I suggested taking the Ravens at -13. Now, they’re -16. I also liked the Broncos at -3.5, and they’re -4 against the Colts.
We’ve got some good +EV bets heading into this week. Let’s try and do the same with Week 16 before Week 15 even gets started.
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Early NFL Week 16 Best Bets
All wagers are for 1 unit | (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers have been very competitive over the last month. While they’re on a three-game losing streak, all three games have been by one score, including an overtime loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Before those three losses, the Panthers won two straight against the Saints and Giants.
The Panthers are truly getting better over time. In Week 15, they’ll take on the Dallas Cowboys as favorites. If the Panthers scratch out a win, there will be some line movement in favor of Carolina. After all, Arizona has lost three straight and is taking on the Patriots at home.
Many scouts have praised Drake Maye and expect him to finish out the season strong. It’s not a likely scenario, but analytically, the Patriots match up somewhat decently against the Cardinals.
Therefore, consider the Panthers at +3.5 at home. If this number drops to 2.5, you’ll miss out on the key number.
Bet: Panthers +3.5 (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders will start Desmond Ridder in a Monday Night Football game against the Atlanta Falcons this week. Ultimately, Ridder was drafted by the Falcons and never developed despite playing many games for Atlanta.
Now he’s with the Raiders, making another start in place of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell, who are both hurt and unavailable.
But don’t get hyped. Ridder will struggle just like Minshew and O’Connell have. The Raiders don’t have enough playmakers or talent on the roster to succeed. When Las Vegas loses to the Falcons, nobody will want to touch Ridder and the Raiders against the Jaguars next week.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars held the Titans to just six points last week in a win behind Mac Jones. Jones threw the ball well except for two mistakes that resulted in interceptions. However, most people will want to trust the Jaguars against the Raiders. I’m one of them.
Bet: Jaguars +1.5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins
The San Francisco 49ers play on Thursday Night Football against the Rams. At 6-7, this is a crucial home game for keeping their playoff hopes alive.
They’re dealing with many injuries at running back and might have to use Patrick Taylor as the starter in that Thursday Night Football game. So if the Niners knock off a Rams team that scored 44 points against the Bills, the line movement should favor the 49ers in the following week.
The Dolphins most recently needed overtime against the Jets and won’t have it easy this weekend against the Texans on the road.
Take the 49ers at -102.
Bet: 49ers (-102)