NFL Week 16 Monday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (Saints vs. Packers)
Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 16 from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 16's Monday Night Football. In this solo MNF edition, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated matchup as we continue into the stretch of NFL regular season action. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay for Monday.
Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football.
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Monday Night Primer
New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
Sides:
- The Packers have covered the spread in 11 of their last 18 games.
- Green Bay is 3-8 as a road favorite ATS (25%) and 12-10 on the money line.
- Since 2023, the Packers have been 17-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 14-5 ATS. Green Bay is 4-10 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
- The Packers have covered the spread in the last eight of their last nine games against teams with a losing record.
- The Packers have won eight of their last 10 games.
- The Packers have won each of their last seven games against AFC opponents.
- The Packers have been the first to 15 points in eight of their last nine games as underdogs.
- The favorites have won each of the Packers’ last 10 games.
- The Saints have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
- The Saints have covered the spread in eight of their last 16 games.
- The Saints have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games.
- The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
- The Saints have scored first in six of their last seven games.
- The Saints have lost nine of their last 12 games.
- The Saints are 2-7 ATS as road favorites.
- The Saints are 5-7 ATS as home underdogs (9-16 on the money line as underdogs)
- As home underdogs, the Saints are 3-9 straight up. Woof.
Totals:
- Green Bay is 3-4 O/U this season at home, averaging 44.5 points per game.
- The Packers are 20-13 toward the over since the start of 2023.
- Thirteen of the Packers’ last 22 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers’ first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5, 24 first-half points in Week 6, 14 in Week 7, 13 in Week 8, 3 in Week 9, 7 in Week 11, 17 in Week 12, 23 in Week 13, 7 in Week 14 and 14 in Week 15.
- That’s over 16 first-half points per game since Week 5, which would rank second in the NFL.
- The Packers have scored first in 12 of their last 13 road games.
- Ten of the Packers’ last 14 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Ten of the Packers’ last 17 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Eight of the Saints’ last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Green Bay is 20th in red zone defense, and the Saints rank eighth.
- The Saints are 4-4 toward the over at home (46.6 points per game).
Overall:
Green Bay's defense is 8th in DVOA. The perception of that unit is warped because of the strength of opponents.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Packers' losses have been to opponents with a combined record of 48-7, the highest by any team with at least four losses in a season since the 1929 Frankford Yellow Jackets.
They are a top-10 defense, which will make life tough on rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler.
The Saints offense barely beat the Giants two weeks ago with Derek Carr. They were outgained and bailed out by two penalties that took 10 points off the board for Big Blue.
They were lucky to get within a 2-point conversion of beating the Commanders at home. The Saints totaled 245 yards of offense and went 3-for-11 on third down. Terry McLaurin was a few plays away from a 5-TD performance. The final score does a bad job of capturing the Saints’ abilities as a football team.
They are terrible. And they just lost another offensive piece in running back Alvin Kamara. This team looks completely different from the opening-day roster.
Green Bay is just in a completely different class than the Saints, and I think they put the rest of the league on notice with a Saints beatdown on Monday Night Football.
This matchup features the fifth-most efficient rushing attack against the league’s 30th-ranked rushing defense (based on FTN's DVOA).
Props:
Josh Jacobs has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Packers’ last six games as favorites. According to Next Gen Stats, Josh Jacobs has scored 11 of his 12 rushing touchdowns since Week 8, which is the most in the NFL over that span.
The Packers scored first in their last five games as favorites.
The Saints’ defense has allowed 6.3 yards after the catch per reception this season (4th-most) and the most yards after the catch over expected (+451) in the NFL this season.
Packers pass catchers have recorded a league-high 7.1 yards after the catch per reception, with Jayden Reed (389 YAC) and Tucker Kraft (383 YAC) leading the team. Reed has averaged the 4th-most yards after the catch per reception among wide receivers (7.9), while Tucker Kraft leads all tight ends with an average of 9.3 yards after the catch per reception (min. 40 targets) via Next Gen Stats.
Seven of the last nine tight ends to play the Saints have exceeded their receiving yards projection. Kraft is over 33.5 yards in 8/14 games this season (6 of the last 10 games).
According to Next Gen Stats, Spencer Rattler has completed just 3 of his 13 deep (20+ air yard) pass attempts for 100 yards and one interception this season, while Jake Haener has completed 1 of 3 such attempts for 36 yards and one interception.
Saints pass catchers have recorded a 27.8% catch rate on deep targets this season (9th-lowest). The Packers’ defense has allowed the lowest completion percentage above expected (-13.2%) on deep pass attempts, having tied for the 2nd-most interceptions (6) on such attempts. Opposing quarterbacks have attempted 37 deep passes against the Packers this season, tied for the 4th-fewest faced by any defense.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling revenge game? I don't think so.
The Green Bay linebackers can't cover. Quay Walker is hurt. The last six TEs the Packers have faced have gone for 36-plus receiving yards.
Foster Moreau caught all 4 of his targets (two in the red-zone targets) for 39 yards and one touchdown, with a long gain of 19 yards. However, Moreau did not play the most TE snaps for the Saints. That was still Juwan Johnson, who ran a route on 75% of the dropbacks. Johnson had two catches for 12 yards on three targets (one red-zone target), with a long of 9 yards. All three of his targets (including a fourth in the failed two-point conversion) came with Rattler at quarterback.
Kendre Miller is expected to get the start at RB for the Saints on Monday night. But it is a terrible matchup. All four of the last RBs have failed to hit their rushing prop against the Packers’ defense.
GB ranks in the top 5 in fewest rushing yards allowed per game at home this season. Obviously, the projected workload (along with his talent) is the most appealing part for the second-year rusher from TCU. Still, it's very much a projection without much consideration for Jamaal Williams factoring in a (revenge game). Miller also has just two targets over the last two weeks. How will fantasy football be when Williams gets the nod in the red zone against his former team over Miller? I’m already tilting.
Christian Watson was the top target, with six receptions on three targets for 56 yards in Week 15. Watson led the team with 53% air yards (94 yards) and a target share of 23%. He also picked up another DPI call.
In the last seven games, Watson leads the Packers in targets (37), air yards (687), and receiving yards (463) - even after a doughnut in Week 12. What's curious is he has zero TDs over this span. That won't last. We just saw the Saints’ defense get ripped by the speedy Terry McLaurin, and I think Watson could find similar success.
He has over 47.5 receiving yards in three straight and four of his last five. New Orleans is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to WRs this season.
If this game truly is a blowout, we could see some more RB action from guys not named Josh Jacobs. Chris Brooks has been the No. 2 RB for the Packers this season, tallying seven red-zone touches without a score. If the regression is ever going to hit, it would be in this matchup.
My Picks: