NFL Week 16 Sunday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (Buccaneers vs. Cowboys)
Welcome to the final NFL betting article for the Week 16 NFL Sunday Slate from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 16's Sunday Night Football nightcap matchup between the Buccaneers and Cowboys. In this standalone SNF breakdown, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated showdown as we hit the final section of the NFL regular season. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to build off your earlier winnings and/or chase your losses from the early slate of games.
Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Sunday Night Football.
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Sunday Night Football Primer
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Sides:
- The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 11 of their last 17 games.
- The Buccaneers have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
- The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in the last four of their last six games following a win.
- The Buccaneers are 13-4 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 13 of their last 17 road games.
- The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 games as underdogs.
- The Buccaneers have won seven of their last 13 games as underdogs.
- Tampa is 4-5 ATS as home underdogs.
- Tampa Bay is 7-3-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 11 games.
- The underdogs have won eight of the last 21 Buccaneers’ games.
- Tampa Bay is 3-3 ATS against the NFC South, with the only losses against the Falcons.
- The Buccaneers have been the first to 10 points in eight of their last 10 games against NFC opponents.
- The Buccaneers have won seven of their last nine games following a loss.
- In each of the Buccaneers’ last four games, the first score has been a Buccaneers Touchdown.
- The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine home games.
- The overall favorites have covered the spread in 22 of the Cowboys’ last 32 games.
- The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games.
- The Cowboys have covered the spread in eight of their last 14 games as home underdogs.
- Dallas went 8-1 at home in 2023. They are 1-6 at home this season.
- The Cowboys have lost the first half in seven of their last eight home games.
- The Cowboys have lost the first quarter in seven of their last nine games.
- Dallas is 5-2 on the road this season and ATS.
Totals:
- Eight of the Buccaneers’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Tampa Bay is 9-5 O/U this season (4-3 at home, averaging nearly 50 points per game).
- On defense, they have allowed the 14th-most points per game (the Cowboys have the 30th-ranked scoring defense).
- The Buccaneers are scoring the 4th-most points per game in the NFL (28.8) and have the NFL’s 6th-best red zone touchdown percentage.
- Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 42 points total at home since 2023 (5-10 record toward the over).
- Sixteen of the Cowboys’ last 21 home games have gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Eleven of the Cowboys’ last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Eighteen of the Cowboys’ last 28 games have gone OVER the projected total (67%), including the last 17 of 26 games.
- Games in Dallas have averaged north of 50 points this season (5-2 O/U).
- Since 2023, Dallas is 13-3 toward the over at home, averaging over 52 points per game.
- Seven of the last eight games between the Buccaneers and Cowboys have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
How can you not back the surging Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football? Baker Mayfield's dominance as a road Buccaneer (aargh) – 13-4 ATS on the road - is so strong (76%). Now, part of that is due to him being an underdog often. But teams on the road don't get the same love from the market as home favorites do. And if there's any team to bet against at home in 2024, it's the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine home games.
According to Next Gen Stats, Baker Mayfield has thrown for 2,238 yards and 20 touchdowns on passes under 10 air yards this season, both the most in the NFL and the most in a single season in his career.
Mayfield has thrown a pass under 10 air yards on 70.0% of his attempts this season, the 5th-highest rate in the league. The Cowboys’ defense has struggled against passes under 10 air yards this season, allowing the most yards per attempt (6.9) and 6th-most YAC per reception (6.4) when defending such passes.
Whether it's through the air or on the ground, Tampa's offense is going to COOK in this spot.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Cowboys have allowed 1.7 yards before contact per rush on inside carries this season, the 4th-most in the NFL and the most by any Cowboys defense since 2020. The Cowboys have allowed 4.8 yards per carry against such rushes in 2024, the 3rd-most in the league. Buccaneers running backs have averaged 5.2 yards per carry on rushes between the tackles this season, the 2nd-most in the NFL (+139 RYOE, 3rd).
Tampa Bay loves to play toward the over, and I think we will see another shootout at home in Jerry World. The Buccaneers' defense can be extremely boom-or-bust, and they have allowed eight of their last 11 games to go over the total. Before going under twice in the last five weeks, the Bucs were on a six-game streak of overs, three of which were on the road.
Considering past matchups between these two teams have gone under the total, regression to the mean seems to be firmly in play. Giddy up.
Props:
Rachaad White has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the Buccaneers’ last eight games. White also has 9.5-plus carries in five straight games.
Bucky Irving has 70-plus rushing yards in four straight games that he hasn't left because of injury.
The Buccaneers have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season.
Mike Evans needs to average 84 receiving yards per game for the rest of the season to hit 1K. So far, since returning from injury, Big Mike has 68-plus in four straight games. He also has scored the first TD in three games this season.
Jalen McMillan also had a strong showing last week, catching five passes for 75 yards and one touchdown, with a long of 26 yards. He had 76 air yards, contributing 31% of the team's total. The rookie posted a 23% Target share and six targets-back-to-back strong weeks for the rookie. Last two weeks: 24% target share. 9 catches for 134 yards and 3 TDS.
The heavy involvement in the first half suggests his role will carry over the rest of the season. McMillan has two 1st TDs this season, and he's a sneaky bet at +1400 for a 1st TD score if you'd rather shoot for the higher payout compared to Evans.
The former Washington Huskie is the clear-cut No. 2 WR for the Buccaneers. And it’s a strong matchup in prime time. Dallas had the fourth-most points allowed to WRs in the last four weeks (second in catches, targets, and yards).
Cade Otton contributed with two catches for 24 yards on three targets last week. Otton's targets have dipped to 15% since Evans' return. Otton has now been under 4.5 catches in more than 70% of his games played with Mike Evans this season. The Buccaneers’ tight end is also on the injury report and has been listed as a game-time decision.
Rico Dowdle will get there as a rusher for Big D but not as a receiver. His receiving yards line is set at 15.5 yards, which he has been under in six straight games with Cooper Rush as the QB. He has a negative ADOT, making it easy for him to lose yardage on his targets.
The matchup also suggests YAC gains will be in short supply. The Buccaneers have allowed the 7th-fewest yards after the catch per reception this season (5.3), including the 3rd-fewest yards after the catch on pass attempts under 10 air yards (5.2) - Next Gen Stats.
My Picks: