NFL Week 17 Line Movement Analysis (2024)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as sportsbooks collect more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 17 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| LAC | NE | 5.5 | 4 | 1.5 | 42 | 42.5 | 0.5 |
| DEN | CIN | -3 | -3.5 | 0.5 | 48.5 | 49.5 | 1 |
| AZ | LAR | -5.5 | -7 | 1.5 | 48.5 | 48 | -0.5 |
| CAR | TB | -8 | -8 | 0 | 49.5 | 48.5 | -1 |
| DAL | PHI | -9.5 | -9 | -0.5 | 43 | 41 | -2 |
| IND | NYG | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0 | 40 | 40.5 | 0.5 |
| NYJ | BUF | -10 | -9.5 | -0.5 | 46 | 47 | 1 |
| TEN | JAX | -1 | -1 | 0 | 40 | 39.5 | -0.5 |
| LV | NO | -2.5 | 1 | -3.5 | 40 | 37.5 | -2.5 |
| MIA | CLE | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0 | 40.5 | 39.5 | -1 |
| GB | MIN | -1.5 | 0 | -1.5 | 48 | 48.5 | 0.5 |
| ATL | WAS | -4.5 | -4 | -0.5 | 46.5 | 48 | 1.5 |
| DET | SF | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 51.5 | 50.5 | -1 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 17 Spread Movement Analysis
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: -5.5 -> -7
The Cardinals have nothing to play for while the Rams have seemingly everything to play for, and that has been reflected in this game’s initial line movement.
Arizona is eliminated from playoff contention after losing four of its last five games. Meanwhile, Los Angeles controls its own destiny and would win the NFC West with victories in its final two games.
Those scenarios have to be what is driving the line movement, as Arizona crushed L.A. 41-10 at home in Week 2. But the Rams have won four straight games. Given this line has moved steadily in half-point increments from -5.5 to the key number of -7, it would not be surprising to see this game kick off with a spread of more than a touchdown.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: -10 -> -9.5
This line may appear to have only moved a half-point since its opening number, but that does not make the line movement any less significant.
After opening at -10, the line first moved off the key number in the direction of the Bills, who were 10.5-point favorites for a brief moment. Since then, the spread swung completely the other way and now the Jets are just 9.5-point underdogs, below the key number of 10.
Aaron Rodgers has only kicked off as an underdog of more than 8.5 points once, and that was to Josh Allen and these same Bills. It is worth noting Rodgers is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog of at least a touchdown.
NFL Week 17 Total Movement Analysis
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 43 -> 41
Compared to the point spread that has only moved a half-point off its opening number, the potential scenario where Jalen Hurts is not cleared from concussion protocol has been much more reflected in the total thus far. The over/under plummeted immediately from 43 to 41, and ticked back up slightly to 41.5 before coming back down to 41.
Hurts did not practice earlier this week, and even Eagles backup quarterback Kenny Pickett was listed as limited. If Hurts does not clear concussion protocol in time to start Sunday, this line would likely come down even further to 40 or below.
Philadelphia is 1-3 without Hurts as its starting quarterback since 2021. They are 45-17 with him.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints: 40 -> 37.5
It was certainly not pretty for the Saints’ offense in a nationally televised game on Monday Night Football last week. Playing without Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara, among others, New Orleans fell victim to the first shutout in the NFL this season, after managing just 14 first downs and 196 total yards.
Some of that offensive inefficiency could be pinned on the frigid temperatures in Green Bay. While that will not be an issue in a dome this weekend, bettors are still getting out ahead of the news that Carr will again be ruled out this week.
The total first dropped briefly from 40 to 39.5, and from there it plummeted to 37.5, where it currently stands. It is worth noting it has been declared Carr has not officially been shut down for the season, but the line movement suggests bettors are certain he will not suit up again, meaning Spencer Rattler will likely be under center.
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