Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 2 Picks & Predictions: Falcons vs. Rams (2022)
Here is my breakdown for Falcons vs. Rams along with my top predictions and top picks.
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Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 2 Picks & Predictions
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams
Check out our Falcons at Rams matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, 3:05 pm ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium
- TV: FOX
Falcons at Rams: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Rams -10.5
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Moneyline: Rams -600, Falcons +430
Falcons at Rams: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 14.
- Spread: Falcons – 60% bets, 76% money
- Over/Under: Under – 38% bets, 91% money
- Moneyline: Falcons – 7% bets, 64% money
Falcons at Rams: Key Injuries
Atlanta Falcons Injuries
- LB Deion Jones (Shoulder, IR): OUT
- LG Jalen Mayfield (Back, IR): OUT
- CB Isaiah Oliver (knee, IR): OUT
- DT Marlon Davidson (knee, IR): OUT
- RB Damien Williams (ribs): DNP on Wed.
- Falcons Injury News
Los Angeles Rams Injuries
- RB Kyren Williams (ankle, IR): OUT
- G Logan Bruss (knee, IR): OUT
- LB Travin Howard (groin, PUP): OUT
- C Brian Allen (knee): DNP on Wed.
- LT Joseph Noteboom (knee): DNP on Wed.
- LS Matthew Orzech (calf): DNP on Wed.
- WR Van Jefferson (knee): DNP on Wed.
- Rams Injury News
Falcons at Rams: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Atlanta Falcons Trends
- HC Arthur Smith: 5-3-1 ATS (15.4% ROI) on road
- East Coast Teams: 115-94-8 ATS (6.3% ROI) on West Coast for afternoon game
Los Angeles Rams Trends
- HC Sean McVay: 8-3 ATS (42.6% ROI) in Weeks 1-2
- HC Sean McVay: 28-22-1 ATS (9.3% ROI) against non-playoff teams
- HC Sean McVay: 11-6 ATS (25.8% ROI) off a loss
Falcons at Rams: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Falcons Offense vs. Rams Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.003 | 20 | 0.175 | 30 | 10 |
| Total SR | 51.4% | 5 | 52.6% | 30 | 25 |
| Total DVOA | 20.3% | 5 | 20.1% | 27 | 22 |
Falcons Offense vs. Rams Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.076 | 27 | -0.025 | 9 | -18 |
| Total SR | 41.2% | 27 | 44.5% | 15 | -12 |
| Total DVOA | -17.1% | 28 | -8.5% | 5 | -23 |
Atlanta Falcons Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 20 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Marcus Mariota
- EPA + CPOE: 0.062 (No. 17)
- AY/A: 6.5 (No. 20)
- QBR: 57.9 (No. 10)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.7 (No. 23)
2021: Marcus Mariota
- EPA + CPOE: N/A
- AY/A: N/A
- QBR: N/A
- ATS Value vs. Average: N/A
Career: Marcus Mariota
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: -11.3
Rams Offense vs. Falcons Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.251 | 31 | 0.131 | 28 | -3 |
| Total SR | 40.3% | 24 | 52.6% | 30 | 6 |
| Total DVOA | -45.5% | 31 | 15.0% | 25 | -6 |
Rams Offense vs. Falcons Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.082 | 8 | 0.08 | 28 | 20 |
| Total SR | 46.6% | 9 | 48.2% | 32 | 23 |
| Total DVOA | 10.6% | 8 | 11.3% | 30 | 22 |
Los Angeles Rams Quarterback Statistics
2022: Matthew Stafford
- EPA + CPOE: 0.023 (No. 21)
- AY/A: 3.0 (No. 33)
- QBR: 23.6 (No. 28)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.9 (No. 8)
2021: Matthew Stafford
- EPA + CPOE: 0.129 (No. 6)
- AY/A: 8.2 (No. 5)
- QBR: 69.2 (No. 4)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.6 (No. 11)
Career: Matthew Stafford
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: 22.2
Key Matchup: WR Cooper Kupp vs. SCBs Dee Alford & Mike Ford
You know who Kupp is.
He’s the guy who last year led the league with an obscene 191 targets and 37 red-zone targets, which he leveraged into a Triple Crown 145-1,947-16 receiving stat line (per our Advanced Wide Receiver Stats Report). In 17 games, only thrice did Kupp have fewer than 10 targets (per our Weekly Target Report). And then in Week 1 he ran a route on 100% of QB Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks, played on 100% of the offensive snaps and went 13-128-1 receiving on 15 targets against a Bills defense that last year was No. 1 in pass DVOA (-23.0%).
Kupp is good.
And the Falcons defense is horrible in pass defense. Last year, it was No. 29 in pass DVOA (20.2%). Last week, it was No. 30 (5.3%).
In our internal FantasyPros unit power rankings, we see the Rams pass catchers as having a significant edge over the Falcons secondary.
| Rank | WRs & TEs | Opp Secondary | Secondary Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | LAR | ATL | 17 | 12 |
The Falcons have strength on the perimeter with CBs A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward, but Kupp lines up most in the slot, where CBs Dee Alford (undrafted rookie) and Mike Ford (journeyman, 9.9 yards per target for career) played in Week 1.
Bet: Rams -10.5 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Rams -10.5 (-106)
Personal Projection: Rams -12.25
Limit: Rams -11
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