Matthew Freedman’s Thursday Night Football Picks & Predictions (Chiefs vs. Chargers)
Here are my top picks for Thursday Night Football: Chiefs vs. Chargers.
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Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Check out our Chargers at Chiefs matchup page.
- Kickoff: Thursday, Sept. 15, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium
- TV: Prime Video
Chargers at Chiefs: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Chiefs -4
- Over/Under: 54.5
- Moneyline: Chiefs -200, Chargers +175
Chargers at Chiefs: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 14.
- Spread: Chargers - 33% bets, 40% money
- Over/Under: Under - 28% bets, 55% money
- Moneyline: Chargers - 35% bets, 44% money
Chargers at Chiefs: Key Injuries
Los Angeles Chargers Injuries
- WR Keenan Allen (hamstring): OUT
- TE Donald Parham (hamstring): OUT
- CB J.C. Jackson (ankle): Questionable
- Chargers Injury News
Kansas City Chiefs Injuries
- CB Trent McDuffie (hamstring, IR): OUT
- RT Lucas Niang (knee, PUP): OUT
- TE Blake Bell (hip, IR): OUT
- K Harrison Butker (ankle): OUT
- Chiefs Injury News
Chargers at Chiefs: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Los Angeles Chargers Trends
- Teams With Back-to-Back Divisional Games: 32-18-2 ATS (25.4% ROI) in Week 2
Kansas City Chiefs Trends
- HC Andy Reid: 33-20-1 ATS (21.8% ROI) in division (with Chiefs only)
- HC Andy Reid: 24-13 ATS (27.8% ROI) in Weeks 1-4 (with Chiefs only)
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 13-8-1 ATS (19.5%) in primetime (including postseason)
Chargers at Chiefs: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Chargers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.067 | 11 | 0.006 | 14 | 3 |
| Total SR | 45.3% | 14 | 40.3% | 8 | -6 |
| Total DVOA | 11.8% | 11 | 0.5% | 16 | 5 |
Chargers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.088 | 5 | 0.038 | 23 | 18 |
| Total SR | 47.4% | 5 | 47.1% | 29 | 24 |
| Total DVOA | 16.0% | 4 | 4.5% | 24 | 20 |
Los Angeles Chargers Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 20 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Justin Herbert
- EPA + CPOE: 0.206 (No. 5)
- AY/A: 10.0 (No. 2)
- QBR: 84.8 (No. 3)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 3.0 (No. 3)
2021: Justin Herbert
- EPA + CPOE: 0.123 (No. 9)
- AY/A: 7.6 (No. 10)
- QBR: 70.9 (No. 3)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 3.3 (No. 5)
Career: Justin Herbert
- AY/A: 7.6
- QB Elo per Game: 78.4
Chiefs Offense vs. Chargers Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.435 | 1 | -0.125 | 8 | 7 |
| Total SR | 58.6% | 1 | 42.9% | 12 | 11 |
| Total DVOA | 44.5% | 1 | -33.7% | 3 | 2 |
Chiefs Offense vs. Chargers Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.14 | 2 | 0.044 | 24 | 22 |
| Total SR | 51.1% | 1 | 46.8% | 27 | 26 |
| Total DVOA | 18.1% | 3 | 4.8% | 26 | 23 |
Kansas City Chiefs Quarterback Statistics
2022: Patrick Mahomes
- EPA + CPOE: 0.358 (No. 1)
- AY/A: 11.8 (No. 1)
- QBR: 94.1 (No. 1)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 5.2 (No. 1)
2021: Patrick Mahomes
- EPA + CPOE: 0.146 (No. 3)
- AY/A: 7.6 (No. 11)
- QBR: 67.7 (No. 5)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 3.9 (No. 3)
Career: Patrick Mahomes
- AY/A: 8.7
- QB Elo per Game: 120.0
Key Matchup: TE Travis Kelce vs. Chargers Pass Defense
For the first two years of his career, All-Pro S Derwin James — within DC Gus Bradley’s defense — effectively erased Kelce in their head-to-head matchups.
- 2018, Week 1: 1-6-0 receiving | six targets
- 2018, Week 15: 7-61-0 receiving | nine targets
- 2019, Week 17: 3-24-0 receiving | five targets
Enter defense-focused HC Brandon Staley with his new scheme in 2021, and all of a sudden Derwin is literally defenseless against Kelce.
- 2021,Week 3: 7-104-0 receiving | 11 targets
- 2021,Week 15: 10-191-2 receiving | 13 targets
If the Chargers can’t stop Kelce, they’re not winning this game.
Bet: Chiefs -4 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Chiefs -3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Chiefs -6.5
Limit: Chiefs -5.5
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