NFL Week 3 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Sam Smith |
Sep 23, 2023

Two weeks into the NFL season, we're starting to get more information about how this year will look. Based on what we've seen so far, there is definitely some value to be had in these Same Game Parlays for NFL Sunday.

NFL Week 3 Same Game Parlay

Titans/Browns

Titans +3.5 (-120)
Jerome Ford U45.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Elijah Moore 50+ Rec Yards (+155)

After watching the Browns' offense struggle last weekend, I expect them to have a difficult time with the Tennessee defense on Sunday. In a game that I think may be low-scoring, getting 3.5 points with the Titans is a bet I'm willing to make.

Jerome Ford was a trendy fantasy pickup this week after Nick Chubb's unfortunate knee injury. Ford is a solid backup option, but if you take away his 69-yard run last week he has just 73 yards on 30 carries. Against the Titans' fantastic run defense, I think he'll have a quiet day. The Titans' pass defense, however, has struggled this year. Elijah Moore had just 3 catches for 36 yards last week, but he earned nine targets. If he sees similar volume this week, I think he'll go well over 50 receiving yards.

Parlay Odds: +590

Chargers/Vikings

Over 53.5 (-120)
Kirk Cousins 300+ Pass Yards (+100)
T.J. Hockenson Any Time TD (+175)

I expect this game to be the highest-scoring of the week – both of these teams have exceptional offenses and suspect defenses. The Chargers have allowed an average of 356 yards per game to opposing QBs (Tannehill and Tagovailoa) this year. The Vikings, on the other hand, have allowed 27 points per game on their way to an 0-2 start. I expect this to be a high-scoring game, and I expect the Chargers' defense to continue to struggle this week against Kirk Cousins and the Vikings passing game.

T.J. Hockenson scored twice last week, and has seen three red zone targets already this year. Hockenson's Any Time TD odds at +175 are generous enough that this is worth a shot in a game that should be a shootout.

Parlay Odds: +510

Patriots/Jets

Under 36.5 (-110)
Garrett Wilson U48.5 Rec Yards (-120)
Hunter Henry 50+ Rec Yards (+210)

Both of these teams have had questionable QB play and exceptional defense this year. I expect this game to go under 36.5, as neither offense has shown any signs of explosiveness. I also expect Garrett Wilson to go under his 48.5-yard receiving prop. Wilson is a stud WR, but QB Zach Wilson will hinder him statistically on Sunday. While Garrett Wilson posted 83 receiving yards last week, 68 of those yards came on one long play. Outside of that play, he's logged just 49 yards through two games this year.

Hunter Henry has been a bright spot on the Patriots' offense so far this season. Henry has broken the 50-yard mark in both of the Patriots' first two games, on steady target share. I think the Patriots will continue to feed Henry on Sunday, and I like his odds of going over 50 receiving yards once again.

Parlay Odds: +1100

Bills/Commanders

Bills -5.5 (-130)
James Cook 60+ Rush Yards (+105)
Sam Howell 250+ Pass Yards (+195)

After a disappointing loss Week 1, Buffalo got things going against the Raiders last week and appears to be back on track. This should be an interesting matchup for them against the 2-0 Commanders, but I expect the Bills to win and cover the -5.5 alt spread.

James Cook has been solid through two games as the Bills feature back, posting 5.8 yards per carry on 29 total carries. If the Bills find themselves in control of this game, I expect him to get enough carries to top 60 rushing yards. I also expect Sam Howell to post a solid passing day if the Commanders find themselves trailing. Howell threw for nearly 300 yards in Denver last week, and could repeat that level of performance even if the Commanders don't win on Sunday.

Parlay Odds: +780

Texans/Jaguars

CJ Stroud 1+ INT (-125)
Nico Collins O53.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Brandon McManus U1.5 FGs (-110)

I expect the Jaguars to take a lead early and win this game. That should lead to plenty of throws from CJ Stroud. Stroud has played pretty well so far this year, and hasn't thrown an INT yet. I think that changes this week, against a Jaguars defense that's already logged 2 INTs this year. I think Stroud's passing volume should also lead to a nice day for top WR Nico Collins, who has already posted 226 receiving yards through two games.

When the Jaguars are on offense, I expect them to be efficient in the red zone. They had some struggles there last week, but the Texans have allowed a TD on 78% of their opponent's red zone drives – the third-highest rate in the league. I think the Jaguars will improve on last week's poor red zone performance and score TDs instead of FGs, leading to a quiet day for Brancon McManus.

Parlay Odds: +590

Colts/Ravens

Ravens -8 (-110)
Gardner Minshew O214.5 Pass Yards (-110)
Zay Flowers O4.5 Receptions (+105)

Baltimore is off to a hot start at 2-0, and I think they'll be able to take care of business against an overmatched Colts team at home. Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson has been a bright spot this year, but he'll miss this game with injury. That leaves the Colts' offense in the hands of Gardner Minshew. Minshew has never been spectacular, but he's one of the more competent backup QBs in the league. If the Colts find themselves down early, I think Minshew can put up a solid day and go over 214.5 passing yards.

When the Ravens are on offense, they've made a habit of looking for rookie WR Zay Flowers. Flowers has 13 catches for 140 yards on the season, and has seen a fair number of targets on short, high-percentage plays. Betting Flowers over 4.5 receptions is a good play based on how the Ravens have used him so far this year.

Parlay Odds: +800

Falcons/Lions

Falcons +3 (+100)
Bijan Robinson O22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Kyle Pitts U33.5 Rec Yards (-115)

The Falcons have been one of the surprise teams of the season so far, starting 2-0 after last week's win over the Packers. I expect them to stay hot, and pull off a win on the road in Detroit. I'll happily take the 3 points being offered.

Bijan Robinson has been exceptional this year, and has gotten a lot of work in the passing game. Robinson has 10 catches through two games, and has the ability to make a big play every time he catches the ball. If he sees similar volume in this game, I think he can go well over 23.5 receiving yards. On the other hand, Kyle Pitts has seen minimal usage in the passing game this season. Despite his draft pedigree, Arther Smith appears to have no interest in featuring Pitts in the Falcons' passing game. Taking U33.5 receiving yards for Pitts, who only has 4 catches all year, is a good move.

Parlay Odds: +530

Saints/Packers

Saints ML (+100)
Rashid Shaheed O40.5 Rec Yards (-130)
Jordan Love 1+ Passing TD (-470)

I expect the Saints to pick up a win in Lambeau on Sunday. New Orleans has a great defense, and their offense has proven to be competent enough behind Derek Carr's QB play to win games. Rashid Shaheed has also become a big play threat in their offense, with 9 catches for 152 yards so far this season. Shaheed can go over his yardage total on just one or two plays. With stud CB Jaire Alexander on WR Chris Olave, I think the Saints could look Shaheed's way frequently.

The Packers offense has also been solid this year, and I think they'll get in the end zone against New Orleans. While it's a conservative play for Jordan Love to throw a TD, it's a safe one. He's thrown 6 TDs this year, and I expect Green Bay to continue to throw the ball in the red zone. The negative correlation with Saints ML adds some juice to this parlay.

Parlay Odds: +410

Broncos/Dolphins

Over 48 (-110)
Durham Smythe O27.5 Rec Yards (-120)
Russell Wilson Longest Completion O37.5 Yards (+100)

This game has the potential to be a shootout. While the Broncos are 0-2, they've shown signs of having a very strong offense this year. Their defense, however, is a different story – they allowed 35 points to Washington's offense last week, and have a brutal matchup this week with Miami's stacked offense. Jaylen Waddle may not play this week, and with star CB Patrick Surtain on WR Tyreek Hill, I think some lesser-known Dolphins players could have nice games. I'll take Durham Smythe O27.5 Rec Yards, as he has 6 catches for 67 yards through two games and should get a decent target share this week.

I expect Russell Wilson to throw deep balls this game, which he's tended to do more this year than last. He completed two long throws last week, and I think there's a good chance he throws enough on Sunday to replicate that performance.

Parlay Odds: +425

Panthers/Seahawks

Seahawks ML (-230)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 40+ Rec Yards (+110)
Jonathan Mingo 25+ Rec Yards (-210)

With rookie QB Bryce Young ruled out, Andy Dalton will start for the Carolina Panthers. Dalton could provide a boost for the offense, but I still expect the Seahawks to win this game at home. Taking Seahawks ML is a safe but good bet.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba hasn't broken out just yet, with 8 catches for just 47 yards through two games. Given his target volume, as well as some minor injuries to both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, it's only a matter of time before he starts to put big plays together. I think this is the week that JSN goes over 40 receiving yards. On the Panthers' side, rookie WR Jonathan Mingo has also been quiet. He's posted 5 catches for 43 yards on the season. Andy Dalton could provide an immediate boost to the passing game, however, and Mingo should benefit. I'll take Mingo 25+ receiving yards as a relatively safe bet, especially if the Panthers find themselves trailing.

Parlay Odds: +350

Bears/Chiefs

Chiefs -6.5 (-265)
Roschon Johnson 40+ Rush Yards (+180)
Travis Kelce 60+ Rec Yards (-210)

After back-to-back blowout losses, nobody is expecting Chicago to keep it close on Sunday in Kansas City. And that includes me. I'll bring it to an alternate line of Chiefs -6.5 to be safe, but Kansas City should win big on Sunday.

I do expect Roschon Johnson to have an increased role in the Chicago offense. He's looked good this year, and he's averaged 5.8 yards per carry on his nine carries this year. If he sees increased opportunity this week, he'll easily break the 40-yard mark. On the Chiefs' side, Travis Kelce had a down game last week returning from a knee injury. Against a worse defense, and with another week to heal, this is a great price for Kelce 60+ yards receiving.

Parlay Odds: +540

Cowboys/Cardinals

Cowboys -12.5 (-110)
Joshua Dobbs U181.5 Pass Yards (-115)
Tony Pollard O72.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Dallas has been arguably the most impressive team in the league this season, dominating both the Giants and the Jets through two games. They should continue to roll this week, and should cover the steep 12.5-point spread in Arizona. Their pass defense has held Zach Wilson and Daniel Jones to barely over 300 yards combined, and I expect Joshua Dobba to have a similarly quiet game for the Cardinals.

Tony Pollard has gotten 39 carries this year, and has turned them into 142 rushing yards. His efficiency hasn't been stellar, but he's played two very good run defenses. He should have a nice day against the Cardinals' defense, which is the worst he's played all year.

Parlay Odds: +395

Navigate

NFL Week 3 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)