NFL Week 4 Betting Picks: Projected Spreads & Predictions (2022)
Our model creates expert lines for every NFL game. We compare the expert lines to current point spreads to identify potential value for every NFL game. You can find the full NFL Betting Picks: Projected Spreads Report here. And here are a few picks and notes for Week 4.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
NFL Week 4 Betting Picks: Projected Spreads & Predictions (2022)
Vikings vs. Saints
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Vikings | +1.0 | -3.0 | -2.3 | 48% | -9% |
| Saints | -1.0 | +3.0 | +2.3 | 52% | 0% |
Saints (+3.5 at BetMGM) vs. Vikings
The Saints come into this matchup with the Vikings trying to get the offense right. QB Jamies Winston has struggled while nursing a back injury, grading out below Davis Mills and Cooper Rush on PFF through three weeks. However, with RB Alvin Kamara back in the fold, the running game may get some relief after going up against a Tampa front seven and a surprisingly stout Carolina run defense. Minnesota has ranked 31st in run defense DVOA in the early season, making it a matchup the Saints can exploit.
Minnesota will look to counter with a banged up running attack of their own. Against a New Orleans defense that hasn’t allowed an opposed quarterback over 215 yards, this could pose a challenge. A lot will be asked of QB Kirk Cousins in a tough matchup 4,000 miles from home, which may have the Vikings leaving London on a sour note.
Bills vs. Ravens
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Bills | -1.o | -3.0 | -2.4 | 48% | -7% |
| Ravens | +1.o | +3.0 | +2.4 | 52% | -1% |
Ravens (+3 at DraftKings) vs. Bills
The Ravens have been a preferred target for the sharps this week, and I’m in full agreement. The Bills are undoubtedly the best team in football at full strength, but they’re far from full strength at the moment. Their entire starting secondary has either been ruled out or is questionable, and two defensive linemen are also questionable. That’s simply not a good formula for stopping Lamar Jackson, who has looked unstoppable to start the year. He’s leading the league in touchdown passes and adjusted net yards per attempt as a passer, and he also leads the league in yards per carry. The Ravens took their foot off the gas in Week 2 vs. the Dolphins, but don’t expect them to make the same mistake vs. the Bills. The Ravens have also been outstanding when getting points, going 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as underdogs.
– Matt LaMarca
Commanders vs. Cowboys
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Commanders | +5.o | +3.0 | +3.0 | 50% | -5% |
| Cowboys | -15.o | -3.0 | -3.0 | 50% | -4% |
Cowboys (-3 at DraftKings) vs. Commanders
The Cowboys will look for their third win against the Commanders at home. The Commanders have given up the fifth most points this season while the Cowboys have only scored the third-fewest points. The one place Dallas has been solid is in the rushing attack. Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott are averaging over 4.4 yards per carry (5.6 for Pollard, 4.4 for Elliott). The Commanders have allowed 5.4 yards per rush attempt to opposing running backs this season. Dallas’ combo in the backfield should have a good day running the ball.
On the other side of the ball, Washington should also be able to run if they choose. However, they will have to improve their pass protection to win against the Cowboys, who lead the league with 13 sacks. Washington allowed nine sacks on Wentz last week, which does not bode well for Sunday.
Bears vs. Giants
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Bears | +2.5 | +3.0 | +3.2 | 49% | -6% |
| Giants | -2.5 | -3.0 | -3.2 | 51% | -3% |
The Bears are top-12 in all the key rushing efficiency metrics, and the Giants defense is outside the top 20 and might be without DL Leonard Williams (knee) and EDGE Jihad Ward (knee).
I think the Bears will control the ball with their running attack to keep this game close.
Best Line: Bears +3.5 (-109, Bet Rivers)
First Recommended: Bears +3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Bears +1.5
Limit: Bears +3
– Matthew Freedman
Giants (-3) vs. Bears
The battle of two 2-1 teams is not as exciting as their records indicate. The Giants arrive fresh off their loss to a backup QB, after narrow victories over the Titans and Panthers. The Bears have somehow eeked out two wins with Justin Fields completing 23 passes through three games. Both teams have run the ball effectively on the offensive side, ranking in the top four in terms of total rushing yards. The difference in this game will be the Bears inability to pass the ball and their poor run defense, 31st in rushing yards allowed, against Saquon Barkley.
– Dylan Santora
Cardinals vs. Panthers
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Cardinals | -2.5 | +1.0 | -1.1 | 56% | +8% |
| Panthers | +2.5 | -1.0 | +1.1 | 44% | -17% |
Per usual, Murray will be the difference in this game.
In the offseason market, this line was Cardinals -2. This line has moved too far in not even a month of action.
If you give me the opportunity to bet on Cardinals HC Kliff Kingsbury as a road dog (14-3-2 ATS) and against Panthers HC Matt Rhule as a home favorite (1-7 ATS), I’m going to do it. Panthers QB Baker Mayfield ranks No. 32 in the league in composite expected points added and completion percentage over expectation (-0.057, per RBs Don’t Matter). He really might be the worst starting quarterback in Week 4. Say what you want about Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, but he’s no worse than average — and he’s probably a top-10 player at the position. The homefield advantage the Panthers theoretically have in this game isn’t enough to outweigh the massive difference between Murray and Mayfield.
Best Line: Cardinals +2 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Cardinals +1.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Cardinals -1.75
Limit: Pick’Em
– Matthew Freedman
Broncos vs. Raiders
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Broncos | EVEN | +2.5 | +0.9 | 55% | +5% |
| Raiders | EVEN | -2.5 | -0.9 | 45% | -14% |
The Raiders have no offensive edge in this game, but the Broncos have a big one: QB Russell Wilson.
It’s not that Wilson has been great this year, but the Raiders have been subpar in pass defense, ranking bottom-six in both dropback EPA and SR. Even with the strong EDGE duo of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, they’ve managed a league-low two sacks as a unit.
They let QB Justin Herbert walk all over them in Week 1 (279 yards, three touchdowns, 76.5% completion rate, 10.0 AY/A).
They let QB Kyler Murray come back from a 20-0 halftime deficit while getting minimal offensive support in Week 2.
And they let QB Ryan Tannehill save his job and maybe the Titans’ season in Week 3 (264 yards, one touchdown, 70.4% completion rate, 8.9 AY/A).
And they’re injured. They’re already without No. 2 CB Anthony Averett (thumb, IR), and they might be without No. 3 CB Nate Hobbs (concussion). Even No. 1 CB Rock Ya-Sin (knee) is on the injury report.
And S Tre’von Moehrig (hip) and LB Denzel Perryman (ankle) have both missed the past two games and are uncertain to return this week.
The Raiders defense is exploitable, and I expect Wilson to have his Broncos breakout against it.
This line was a pick’em in the offseason. Maybe the Broncos aren’t as good as the market anticipated they would be months ago — but that’s definitely true for the Raiders too.
Best Line: Broncos +2.5 (+100, Caesars)
First Recommended: Broncos +2 (-109)
Personal Projection: Broncos -0.25
Limit: Broncos +1.5
– Matthew Freedman
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Chiefs | +2.5 | +1.0 | -0.8 | 55% | +5% |
| Buccaneers | -2.5 | -1.0 | +0.8 | 45% | -15% |
With WRs Mike Evans (suspension) and Julio Jones (knee) slated to return this week, the Buccaneers offense should be able to do just enough to make the heroic efforts of their secondary against QB Patrick Mahomes and his pass catchers not in vain.
This line was Buccaneers -2.5 in the offseason. They’ve struggled in Weeks 1-3 — but so have the Chiefs. This line has moved too far.
Best Line: Buccaneers +2.5 (-109, Sugar House)
First Recommended: Buccaneers +3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Pick’Em
Limit: Buccaneers +1.5
– Matthew Freedman
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting “against the spread†refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.